爱马仕：二手价格追踪 - 2026年4月底

Yi-PengKhoo,CFA+442076766822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.comEric Chen,CFA+85221232628 eric.chen@bernsteinsg.comMariaMeita+44 2071700540 maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Hermes: The Secondhand Pricing Tracker - end-April 2026 availableon request. Thisupdate includes datafrom Sotheby's onlinehandbag andaccessories auction,held in HongKong.The auction closedon28April2026.All 218 lots listed were sold.The auction saw28bags fall into our basket:6 Birkin25s in Togo Leather,6Birkin30 Togos, 5Kelly 25 Epsoms, 3Kelly 28 Epsoms,3 Kelly Pochette Swifts and 5 Mini Kelly Il Epsoms. This brings the total number of handbagstracked in2Q26to40vs.90attheendof2Q25. Wenowseeresalepricepremiumsfor ourcore Birkin/Kelly trackerrise infrom1.2xin1Q26to1.4xin2Q26.Our expandedtracker,which includes data on whatare likelytobesomeof themostpopularmodels -theKelly Pochette andMini Kelly ll -seesresalepricepremiums stabilize at~1.6x over the same period. As we had previously noted, this update is likely more representative of underlyingtrends than our early-April update, given the larger sample size. It remainstoo earlytocall anysignificantchangeintrend, letalonean inflection:thequarter-on-quarterstabilization in ourcoretrackershould be seen as a positive,buta tiny waver oncewe includethe Kelly Pochette and Mini Kelly ll still leaves us cautious Hermes'1Q26updatereinforcedour sensethatthebrandisexperiencinga softpatch inbrand momentum (seeHermes:Valuations already discounta'Ferrarireset').Inthenear-term,we would expecta recovery in Leather Goodsgrowth,givenreiteratedFYguidance of +5-6% priceand +6-7% volumes.However, with the war in the Middle East still in limbo and scheduledflighttransfers (letalonepassengers)in the regionstill operatingbelownormal levels,webelievea near-termrebound inwholesalerevenuesto regional travel retail partners still seems unlikely.We also expect competitionto increase as creativerenewals at peers,such as Chanel and Dior, pick up pace. This would add pressure on already weak tourist spend in Europe (see Hermes: Highlights fromthe 1Q26 conference call). Dampdemandfor softluxuryhas createda‘winnertakes all'environment (seeGlobal LuxuryGoods:The BattleforAttention).Being'onthenerve'has becomethe incremental driver ofgrowth ina tightening market,as opposedto sheer scale and pizzazz in an expanding market. Hermes continues to ride out the downturn by virtue of its position at thetop ofthe leathergoodspeckingorder.Butunlessasignificantre-accelerationofgloballuxurydemandmaterializes,webelievenewenergy-perhapscatalyzedbyanewmenswearcreativedirector,hautecouture,orinnovativemarketingorproductactivities-needstobecapturedinorderto justifyhighervaluations.Inourview,thisisnotbeyond Hermes,butweacknowledgethat investorscanonlywaitandsee. Formorenotesinthisseries,see:Hermes:TheSecondhandPricingTracker,andupdates inSep'25,Oct25,Nov25,Dec'25 (withafocus on the Mini Kellyll,Feb'26, Mar'26 (with a comparison to another luxury icon, the Rolex Daytona), and most recently in early-Apr'26. availableonrequest.This update includes data from Sotheby's online handbag and accessories auction, held in Hong Kong. The auction closed on 28 April 2026 Of the 218 lots listed, all lots were sold. The auction saw 28 bags fall into our basket: 6 Birkin 25s in Togo Leather, 6 Birkin 30 Togos, 5Kelly25Epsoms,3Kelly 28 Epsoms,3Kelly Pochette Swifts and 5Mini Kelly ll Epsoms.This brings the total number ofhandbags tracked in2Q26to40vs.90attheendof2Q25 includes data on what are likely to be some of the most popular models -the Kelly Pochette and Mini Kellyll- sees resale price premiumsstabilize at~1.6x over the same period. As we had previously noted, this update is likely more representative of underlying trends than ourearly-Aprilupdate,giventhelargersamplesize tracker should be seen as a positive, but a tiny waver once we include the Kelly Pochette and Mini Kelly ll still leaves us cautious. Valuations alreadydiscount a'Ferrari reset').In the near-term, we would expect a recovery in Leather Goods growth,given reiteratedFY guidance of +5-6% price and +6-7% volumes. However, with the war in the Middle East still in limbo and scheduled flight transfers (letalone passengers)in the region still operating belownormal levels, we believe a near-term rebound in wholesalerevenues to regional travelretail partners stillseems unlikely.We also expect competitionto increase as creativerenewals at peers, suchas Chaneland Dior,pickuppace.This would add pressure on already weaktourist spend in Europe (see Hermes: Highlightsfrom the 1Q26 conference call) Being'on the nerve'has become the incremental driver of growth in a tightening market, as opposed to sheer scale and pizzazz in anexpanding market. Hermes continues to ride outthe downturn by virtue of its position at thetop of the leather goods pecking order.Butunless a significant re-acceleration of global luxury demand materializes, we believe new energy-perhaps catalyzed by a new menswearcreative director,