业绩速览：爱马仕：2026年第一季度业绩低于下调后的预期

Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Price Target RMS.FP 2,150.00 EUR(2,250.00OLD) Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Hermès: Highlights from the 1Q26 conference call Hermès reported its 1Q26 results today. This report contains key points from its investorconference call.Results Quick Take:Hermès: 1Q26 misses on reduced expectations Close Date14 Apr 2026RMS.FP Close Price (EUR)1,783.00Price Target (EUR)2,150.00Upside/(Downside)21%52-Week Range2,606.00/1,529.00EDME1,536.25FYEDecDiv Yield1.2%Market Cap (EUR) (M)164,160EV (EUR) (M)154,273 Key messages:1Q26 reinforces our sense that Hermès is experiencing fading brandmomentum (see Hermès: Valuations already discount a 'Ferrari reset'). 1Q26 was likelyimpacted by some degree of phasing on inventories, wholesale disruption to travel retail andconcessionaires in the Middle East, and lower tourists flows to Europe: all of which could wellreverse over the rest of FY26. However, Hermès has already implemented the year’s priceincreases; good inventory levels and good sell-through at RTW lay bare the division’s +0.4%cFX performance. We expect competition to increase as creative renewals at peers pick uppace. Weak tourist demand, the most price sensitive of deal-hunting consumers, alreadypoints to increasing price elasticity. We believe Hermès may soon face its own ‘Capucine’ moment.We see parallelsbetween Hermès today, and Louis Vuitton in the early-2010s (see LVMH: Recognizing theFashion & Leather Goods maxi-cycles), when LV experienced a period of slowing growth,as the most sophisticated of luxury consumers (e.g. the Chinese) grew too familiar with thebrand and went elsewhere. LV responded by reaching up to follow, proving that the sky is thelimit for a top-tier luxury brand. We continue to believe in the fundamental building blocks ofthe Hermès brand. Yet, we also believe that Hermès has the potential to do much more. Investment Implications We update our financial forecasts to account for 1Q26’s reported figures.We nowforecast +11.8% Leather Goods cFX growth in FY26 (down -50bps reflecting 1Q26’s miss).We trim our RTW forecasts by -390bps to +3.8% to reflect ongoing pressure from tourismflows and competition. We continue to expect a sequential recovery in growth rates over therest of FY26 as one-offs unwind, new space comes online, and the comparable base eases.We now forecast Group OSG of +7.9% in FY26 (vs. +10.5% previously). We leave our EBIT% forecasts unchanged for now; top-line growth remains positive. Our FY26E EPS forecastsfall by -1.7% (-2% below consensus). Our FY27E forecasts remain largely unchanged. We continue to value Hermès on a target 3.2x relative P/E multiple to the MSCI Europe,applied to a blended NTM+1 forward EPS forecast. This is equivalent to a 40x P/E. We rateHermès Outperform, PT €2,150.00. DETAILS BUSINESS UPDATE •Key figures to consider for the quarter: •Retail performance +7%; Wholesale performance -7% •Indicating a potential phasing factor, related to a sudden stop or postponement of deliveries to ME concessions andtravel retail, to consider when looking at the quarter •Inventory levelswere good, especially in RTW and shoes •Outlook: •Hermès reiterates its objective to deliver strong reveneu cFX revenue growth, with Leather Goods growth underpinned by+5-6% pricing and +6-7% volumes •Leather Goodsis expected to accelerate through the year. Performance is not linear due to manufacturing, delays, etc.Demand remains strong for both iconic and other bags •First-Order Impact:Hermès has 6 stores in the Middle East, of which three are wholesale concessions in Kuwait,Qatar, and Bahrain. Only in March did revenues decrease (by -20-30% depending on the day), leading to a -150bpsdrag on growth. •Hermès pointed to a -150bps impact from the war in the Middle East on group revenue •Wholesale orders to the three concessionaire partners sound like they were heavily impacted, with a particulareffect on RTW and Accesories (e.g. footwear - shoes and sneakers - had a significant impact) •Revenue growth in January and February was strong and in the DD region •Impact on tourist flows into France:Hermès noted that tourist demand represents >50% of revenues in France and<50% in Europe •Hermès reported a significant decrease in ME tourists, offset by a significant increase in Americans; Greater Chinatourists to Europe were slightly higher. These comments were likely made on the quarter, however •Travel retailhas also been impacted, with 40 out of the 60 travel retail locations Hermès operates - mostly viaconcessions - impacted. •Margins:Impact on margins from the ME likely to be absorbable •Impact from competition:Hermès reiterates that fundamentals are good and will be crucial going forward. All newproducts in the latest collections were successful; there is no intention to change