全球奢侈品市场：爱马仕：二手定价追踪报告

Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comYi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.comEric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Hermès: The Secondhand Pricing Tracker - April 2026 We update our secondhand Hermès Birkin and Kelly price tracker to incorporate prices from recent auctions. The underlying dataset is This update includes data from Sotheby’s online handbag auction, held in Paris, that closed on 01 April 2026. Of the 163 lots listed onthe auction, 13 lots were not sold. The auction saw 12 bags fall into our basket: 3 Birkin 25s in Togo leather, 4 Kelly 25 Epsoms, 3 Kelly28 Epsoms 1 Kelly Pochette Swift and 1 Mini Kelly II Epsom. We see resale price premiums rise from 1.2x to 1.6x, between 1Q26 and 2Q26, for our core BIrkin/Kelly tracker. Our expandedtracker, which includes data on the Mini Kelly II and Kelly Pochette, sees resale price premiums rise from 1.6x to 1.8x over the sameperiod. Note that 2Q26 estimates are based on a limited number of handbags - we would not read too deeply into the quarterly figure,for now. On a semi-annual basis, our ‘core’ tracker sees resale premiums at 1.3x in 1H26 vs. 1.5x in 2H25 while our expanded trackerlands at 1.7x, in-line with 2H25. Hermès has experienced significant valuation compression over the past month, valuations are now discounting a ‘Ferrarireset’ (see Hermès: Valuations already discount a 'Ferrari reset').Signs of fading top-line momentum - both on the resale market,as we track here, and potentially on the firsthand market, which we proxy through store traffic trackers (see Global Luxury GoodsMega-transect: Strong Lunar New Year 2026 foot traffic points to a gradual recovery) - combined with downbeat commentary on1Q26E have contributed to a collapse in investor confidence. We believe short-term weakness could well reflect a consumer distracted by a wealth of new creativity at the likes of Chanel and Dior(see Global Luxury Goods: The Handbag Price & Mix Barometer - Chanel's readacross to Hermès), more difficult comps than peers,and possibly a tactical use of inventory. We do not believe that the Hermès growth formula is broken, but acknowledge it is difficult tobe positive on Hermès in the short-term. On the lighter side, we highlight some of the most ‘outrageous’ lots sold in this auction.These include a pair of Hermèscrocodile leather sneakers that sold for €16,640, a Louis Vuitton dollhouse that sold for €30,720, a set of Hermès headphones thatsold for €8,960, and a set of three 7.5 x 8.5 x 2cm Hermès leather charms that sold for €2,560. For more notes in this series, see: Hermès: The Secondhand Pricing Tracker, and updates in Sep'25, Oct'25, Nov'25, Dec'25 (with afocus on the Mini Kelly II), Feb'26, and most recently in Mar'26 (with a comparison to another luxury icon, the Rolex Daytona). Hermès LouisVuittonMaison Vivienne Dollhouse White Matte Niloticus Crocodile Himalaya Day Sneakers, Size 45 Sold for €30,720 Sold for €16,640 HermèsSet of Three CharmsSold for €2,560 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Hermes International We value Hermès on a target 3.2x relative P/E multiple to the MSCI Europe, applied to a blended NTM+1 forward EPS forecast,arriving at a target price of EUR2,250. RISKS Hermes International On the downside: 1. Failure to convincingly innovate could push Hermès in a “classic corner”, a possible risk if the aesthetics pendulum swings awayfrom “quiet luxury”. 2. Significant reliance on precious skins could at one point come again in focus, as consumers become more interested in animalwelfare – a move away from crocodile with higher volumes in less expensive raw materials could puncture the rarity effect of most iconicproducts. 3. Legal challenges to Hermes commercial policies seem a long shot (see the case in California) – if successful, though, they couldforce Hermes to increase handbag prices. This c