存储追踪（3月）：现货价格略有下跌，但2026年第二季度合约价格预计将带来惊喜

MEMORY TRACKER (Mar): Some dip in spot price, but 2QCY26contract price is expected to be an upside surprise This monthly tracker (download datasethere) summarizes spot and contract price datareleased by TrendForce/DRAMeXchange & compares that with our model & investorexpectation. DRAM: Mar contract price rose a bit more and 2QCY26 contract may rise by another40-50% QoQ. Spot price: PC DRAM spot price saw some drop in Mar with DDR5 down 5.3% MoM, assome distributors lowered prices. Nonetheless, spot price remained considerably abovecontract prices. Server DRAM spot price also rose continuously in Mar. Contract price: DRAM contract prices in Mar went up mildly MoM as most negotiationshad already concluded. Overall Mar DRAM contract price was 105% higher vs. 4QCY25,with 109% for PC, 103% for Server, 89% for Mobile & ~130% for Consumer. Shortageremained and contract price is estimated to see another 40-50% QoQ increase in 2QCY26.Beyond 2QCY26, room for further increases will get smaller and suppliers are increasinglyfocusing more on LTAs to secure price and profitability for CY2027 and beyond. NAND: contract price rose further MoM in Mar & is expected to jump up by another70-75% QoQ in 2QCY26. Spot price: Despite some minor dip towards the month end, NAND wafer spot priceincrease accelerated to 24-26% MoM in Mar. Contract price: Mar NAND wafer contract price was up further by 16-20% MoM and was128-176% over 4QCY25. For eMMC/UFS used principally in Mobile, TrendForce expects95% QoQ increase for 1QCY26. Though some module houses were getting more cautious,eSSD demand kept supply tight and price increase continued. Overall Mar contract pricefor wafer & Mobile NAND is expected to rise by 136% QoQ in 1QCY26, and we believeSSDs were seeing a similar hike. And 2QCY26 contract price is projected to rise by another70-75% QoQ, stronger than our forecast and ahead of the price hike of DRAM as well. In summary, contract prices continued to increase MoM in Mar, implying priceincrease for 1QCY26 vs. 4QCY25 wentup 105% for DRAM and 136% for NAND.Though some spot prices fell towards the month end, it seemed more like speculatorstaking some profits as demand remains robust & supply is still tight. Andpreview on2QCY26 also suggests contract price will be in line or stronger than our expectationespecially for NAND.Beyond 2QCY26 room for further hikes will get limited and suppliersare increasingly focused on securing LTAs for long-term price and profitability. We modelmemory prices to continue rising this year, with NAND possibly risnig more in the near term,but to peak in 1HCY27 and start falling more into 2HCY27 and CY28 as more capacity isbrought online. SeeGlobal Memory: Price increase more than expected in 2QCY26andSandisk FQ2'26: A significant beat and guide to usher in the Year of the Fire-Horse, Raising TP to $1000for details. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 225,000.SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 1,150,000.Micron:We rate Micron Outperform with price target of US$510.00.KIOXIA: We rate KIOXIA Underperform with price target of JPY 17,000.SanDisk:We rate SNDK Outperform with a price target of $1,000.00 DETAILS TrendForce (who publishes research on memory market & also maintains DRAMeXchange for memory spot market) has releasedthe Mar 2026 contract prices for DRAM & NAND covering different applications (dataset can be downloaded atMemory PriceTracker). We select mainstream products from each segment, apply different weights on them to derive an industry average ASPchange. SSD & HBM are not in the samples & will be additionally considered so that we can compare the ASP with our projection.Spot price is noisy but we also summarize some spot price data as it can be a leading indicator of contract price. Please feel free tofind ourmost recent market reviewand download our industry and company models from the links below. •CoWoS/HBM Model•DRAM Industry Model•NAND Industry Model•Samsung Electronics Model•SK hynix Model•Micron Model•KIOXIA Model•SanDisk Model DRAM contract prices were up mildly in Mar though some spot prices corrected. There was no sign of demandweakening or shortage easing, and early checks suggests another 40-50% QoQ increase in contract price for2QCY26 & the focus on LTAs beyond that. Spot price: •PC DRAM: PC DRAM chip spot price kept increasing in early Mar but saw some softness in late Mar. And by the endof Mar DDR4 chip spot price was up 3.2% MoM but DDR5 was down 5.3% (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 3, Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5,Exhibit 6). TrendForce did point out in the previous month that supply and demand was likely still reaching a balanceas buyers showed more hesitation. In Mar some distributors indeed lowered prices hoping to attract more purchases,and hence some correction in spot prices. TrendForce also observed that module houses turned more conservative intheir purchases