邮轮：伯恩斯坦价格追踪器 - 7月趋势显示持续增长，为RCL第二季度报告带来利好

Cruise: Bernstein price tracker - July trends see sustained growth,boding well for Q2 RCL reporting Our July cruise pricing data shows another month of robust cruise price growth.At RCL pricesincluding the mix towards the new Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel ships were up 6.9%,continuing HSD y/y price growth from May and June; LfL pricing was also strong - up 4% inJuly, only a slight slowdown from May and June, and a strong rebound from small “LiberationDay" driven declines in April. European pricing was a bright spot, up well into the double digitsy/y, while the core markets of the Caribbean and Bahamas saw steady mid to low single digitprice growth.Cumulatively this should paint a rosy picturefor RCL's upcoming Q2 reportingbuttherecentrun-up in cruise shareprices likelylimitstheupsidefromshorttermdemandstrength, with a beat on yields now priced in, while cost guidance into Q3 could add somenoise.Despitealessshorttermupside,weretainourlongtermpreferenceforRCLasthebest way to play a strong structural outlook for cruise, with the company set to deliver highteens EPS growth at a mid teens multiple, and with a best in class margin and ROIC profile. Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 207676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Niall Mitchelson+44 207 676 7144nialmitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Mea Culpa - Some changes to our data. Prior pricing data had not reflected new 'HonestPricing' regulation with advertised prices including taxes and fees from July 2024, meaningwe saw a step-up in prices from when the law was implemented. We revise historicalpricing data to reflect this, with the data now more closely aligning with reported yield data- despite the changes we retain the same conclusion, that robust y/y pricing indicatescontinugd damand strength. There would be no change to our prior MoM conclusions Pricing broad based, but Celebrity particularly strong. Company-wide pricing growthof 6.9% y/y was driven by 4.5% growth at Royal Caribbean (+1.2% ex-Star of the Seasprice accretion), and an impressive 12.7% growth at Celebrity (+10.8% ex-CelebrityXcel price accretion). This likely reflects strong demand into Europe specifically, with theCelebrity brand overindexing to the region. Company commentary still positive. Carnival had a strong Q2 with yields 20Obps aheadof guidance,and indicatedthat while April saw somevolatility,May sawanimprovement indemand, and June demand was better than May. Close in demand was notably strong, withstrength broad based across ticket pricing and onboard and other revenue. What to do with the stocks. Cruise stocks have performed very well YTD, particularlypost Carnival's Q2 as confidence in cruise demand has strengthened, particularity relativeto other leisure subsectors, and the US Tax Bill passed without touching cruise - RCL isnow up 22% since CCL reported on the 23rd of June, while CCL is up only 20%. Our datawould suggest a beat and raise at Q2 so there is little reason for the momentum to stallhere even if that beat is largely expected. On the cautious side, we would only highlightsomenoiseinQ-Qguidance-Q3costguidanceislikelytobewell abovetheFYnumber(~6% growth in NCC ex-fuel per APCD), with savings in Q4 (-7%) as a result of timing ofSBC expenses driving the low FY cost guide - although we are stillin line on Q3. We retainourlongtermstructuralpreferenceforRCL,particularlyafterourrecentROiCdeepdive(Royal Caribbean: The ROIC inflection - how high can it go?) where we outlined the path to asustainable high teens ROIC with runway to grow. RCL reports on July 2gth. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We retain our long term structural preference for RCL (Outperform), with our recent ROIC work (Royal Caribbean: The ROICinflection - how high can it go?) reinforcing our confidence in the compelling high teens TSR overthe medium term, withtheROiC and margin potential of the business not fully appreciated. In the short term the run-up in cruise shares generally followingCCL's Q1 likely takes some of the short term upside off the table but we would see little reason to sellinto what should be astrong beat-and-raise Q2. Cruise - Indexed share price performance YTD (1/1/25 = 100) DETAILS EXHIBIT 3: The prices listed on RCL's website for cruises over the next 12 months has been up in the mid-high singledigits through Q2, with y/y growth sustaining at 6.9% in July EXHIBIT 4: Exclusing new ship mix we still see prices up low to mid single digits across Q2, although Ifl pricesdeclined slightly y/y in April for the Royal Caribbean brand, likely driven by political volatility EXHIBIT 5: Regionally Europe has seen the strongest pricing y/y, while core markets the Bahamas and theCaribbean have both been stable with prices up MSD Royal Caribbean - y/y change in average nightly price of NTM sailings by region HEADLINE DATA ROYAL CARIBBEAN BRAND EXHIBIT 12: Pricing for the Quantum class ships has been strong, particularly across Spectrum, Odyssey andOvation, likely helped by Asia Pac