确认爱马仕2026年第二季度谨慎展望

Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comYi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.comEric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Specialist SalesAlix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com We regularly hold calls with companies, making sure we are up-to-date with their latest communications. We recently caught up with Hermès,in the lead up to their 2Q26/1H26 reporting, and provide an update of the key themes on the company below. Hermès concedes that a few elements have marginally improved in 2Q26 relative to 1Q26 - namely tourist spend in Europe and thelocal spend in the Middle East - but the broader picture for them remains contrasted, with only a slight sequential acceleration seen as areasonable expectation for 2Q26E. More should support trading in 2H26E: more high-end tourist spend and more retail space growth. Commentary by Division:Reiterated FYLeather Goodsgrowth algorithm of +5-6% price and +6% volume, albeit on a non-linear basis,leading to a progressive acceleration over the year vs. 1Q26 at +9.4%.RTWandSilks & Textilesremain strong.Other sectorsface a~9% sequentially tougher comparison base.Perfumeslikely continue to be weighed down by distributor caution, whileWatchesremain Commentary by Region:The US, Korea, and Japan likely remain dynamic. Spend by European locals likely remains strong, with touristtrends in France improving slightly - potentially driving a sequential acceleration. Further acceleration would likely depend on a return oftourists to Europe - with Middle Eastern tourists traditionally forming a greater proportion of tourists to Europe in the summer months. TheMiddle East continues to improve with stores reopened and operating normally. Tourists have yet to return to the Middle East, however, while Commentary on Space:Reiterated 1% contribution from space for FY26, with a stronger impact in 2H26. There was likely no majorincremental impact from space between 2Q26 and 1Q26. Beijing Sanlitun represents the most significant opening in 2Q26, but itscontribution has likely been offset by soft underlying market trends in China. New Bond Street will have a greater contribution in 2H26, as it FX & Margins:On current FX rates, FX headwinds will likely come to -3% to -3.5% in 2Q26, -5% in 1H26, and between -2.5% and -3% forFY26. Hermès has guided to a -€220m headwind on margins for FY26, with a greater drag in 2H26 than 1H26. Price hikes at the start of theyear were designed to offset cost inflation and not FX headwinds, mechanically leading to a slight under absorption of costs. Taxes:The 1H26 effective tax rate should be similar to that of 1H25, at ~35.4%. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respective VALUATION METHODOLOGY Hermes International We value Hermès on a target 3.2x relative P/E multiple to the MSCI Europe, applied to a blended NTM+1 forward EPS forecast,arriving at a target price of EUR2,150. RISKS Hermes International On the downside: 1. Failure to convincingly innovate could push Hermès in a “classic corner”, a possible risk if the aesthetics pendulum swings awayfrom “quiet luxury”. 2. Significant reliance on precious skins could at one point come again in focus, as consumers become more interested in animalwelfare – a move away from crocodile with higher volumes in less expensive raw materials could puncture the rarity effect of most iconicproducts. 3. Legal challenges to Hermes commercial policies seem a long shot (see the case in California) – if successful, though, they couldforce Hermes to increase handbag prices. This could translate to lower growth for other product categories, benefiting today from RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) fo