2026年第二季度财报前空气化工产品公司核心主题前瞻

+44 20 7676 6995james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com +442077621032sebastien.afoy@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales ?AI.FP Air Liquide - Key Themes Ahead of 2Q26 Results Liquide in thelead up totheir2Q26 reporting,and providean update ofthekeythemes below. Theexpected improvement incomparablegrowth isversus the"Q2similartoQ1"commentaryfrom1Q26results,andthemarketisarguablyalreadythere.Butcurrentcomparablegrowthexpectationsshouldbefeasible.Managementacknowledgedthat there was a lower level of customer disruption than assumed in their cautious 1Q26 results commentary,and therefore expectbetter than 1.9% comparablegrowth in thequarter.The largest source of acceleration will be from Electronics.Carriergases (c.51%Electronics) are expected to continue their c. 9-10% recent growth, driven by ramp-ups, and the other segments, while growing moreslowlyareallexpectedtocontribute.Ifoneassumesonaveragec.3%growthforthetwoMaterials andE&lsegments,this implies2Q26comparable growth of c.6-7% for electronics. The other segments are expected to be more in-line with their 1Q performance. LargeIndustries is still impacted by weaker volumes outside the Americas. Industrial Merchant is expected to deliver solid pricing except forAsiaand helium,butvolumesmore resilientthangrowing.Healthcare continues togrow,but itis expectedtobelowerthan thetopofthe4-6% historical range.Theacceleration in Electronics growthmeans that Air Liquide see current 2QVisible Alpha comparable growthconsensus (2.8% group/ 2.7% G&S; Bernstein 2.8% group / 2.9%G&S)as consistentwith their updated messaging. The phasing of the +100bps targeted margin improvement in 2026 should be relatively balanced throughout the year,also reflected in consensus estimates in our view.The companyreaffirmed their confidence in delivering the 1oObps ofmarginimprovement relatively consistently over the two halves of theyear,similar to2025.This is supported bysolid pricing actions alreadytaken pre-conflict (e.g.1Q26 Merchant Pricing of+3.4%) and ongoing cost savings efforts. We see this as reflected in VA consensusORestimatesof2,914mgroup/3,046G&S.Ourestimatesare+3%moreoptimistic,givenourmodellingofacceleratingmerchantpricing,albeit the comparablegrowth commentaryabovemaybring our estimates moretowards consensus.Fornet income, it shouldbe noted thatinterest costs are increasing yoy,given the DiG Airgas debt. The datefor the CMD is now confirmedfor the 5th of October, avoiding a clash with Linde on the 1st. EXPECTEDCHANGETOCONSENSUSEARNINGS Formore,please see reports: O7May2026-TheBernsteinlIndustrialGasesPrimer:Howtheindustrystructurecansupportlong-termoutperformance Referencesto"Bernstein"orthe"Firm”inthese disclosures relateto thefollowingentities:BernsteinInstitutionalServices LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司,SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services toproduce Bernstein researchundera Global Services Agreement inplacebetween BernsteinandSocieteGenerale otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. alongside the attractions of their resilient mix (with a high proportion of protected income) but also long-term growth potential.It also (rightly in our view) represents a modest discount to its closest peer, Linde plc given its stronger earnings potential anddiscipline. Hence, our PT of 207 RISKS AirLiquideSA Downside:With anewCEOsinceJune2022communicatinga strongfocus onperformanceanysetbackswill likelyhaveanexaggerated impact on the share price (PT impact -10). Given its high exposure to North America IM sales (c.70% of regionalimpact-5); If the project backlogfalters again (PT impact -5), especially if uncertainties inthe clean hydrogen story seea lackof new signatures here (PT impactc.-10). RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand TheBernstein brand rates stocks based onforecasts of relativeperformanceforthenext 12months versus the S&P500 forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Largeand Mid CapPrice Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Largeand Mid CapPrice Return Index (ASIAX)forstocks listedon the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: :Outperform:Stockwill outpacethemarketindexbymorethan15pp Coverage Suspended:Coverageofacompanyunderthe Bernsteinresearchbrand has been suspended.Ratingsandpricetargetsare suspended temporarily,are no longer current, and should therefore not be