ABB 2026年第二季度前瞻：（EL） beats可能持续

AlasdairLeslie+44 20 7762 4952alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.comNicholas Witting +44 20 7762 1411nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.com Market-PerformPrice Target +44 20 7550 2192om.kela@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales ?ABBN.SW JamesBrady +44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com ABB Q2'26 preview: And the (EL) beat (likely) goes on... (reporting16July),as1Q26trendsremain.Weexpectstrongdemandto continue,of+10%groupLFLordergrowth(vs+9%VisibleA/phaconsensus).Withamplecapacityandfurthergradualexpansion,weexpectfluidconversionofthe$25.5bnbacklogtosupport+11% LFL sales growth (in line with cons).This solid execution lends us to see group marginsof 19.8%(+50bps yoy).Despitewhat should beanothergoodquarter, the~46%YTD sharepricegain brings valuation tomulti-year highs, and withmoderate EPS growth for suchmultiples,prompts us tomaintaina Market-performrating. Electrification (EL) risks to the upside.After robust+44% LFL order growth in Q1,strong demand trends should continue, supported by ongoing hyperscaler and colocationinvestment, particularly in the US, which accounts for ~50% of EL's DC business. Other endmarkets, such as utility and grid investments, look solid. We model +22% LFL order growth in2Q26 (vs+22%cons).AsmoreUS capacitygraduallyrampsup,backlog executionshould bewell-supported, underpinning our expectations for +17% LFL sales growth (vs +15% cons).On margins, the negative mix effect from lower-margin systems growth from DCs is likely tooffset higher volumes. We expect op. EBITA margins of 24.7%, up +8Obps YoY and in linewith cons. Motion (MO) in guidance range.For 2Q26, we model MO LFL order growth of +6%(vs +7% cons), as underlying market conditions look unchanged vs Q1, with positivedevelopments in HVAC,commercial buildings,and F&B.We slightly reduce our LFL salesgrowth estimate for 2Q26 to +5% (vs +7% prior), still in line with MSD guidance set at 1Q (vs+7% cons), due to revenue push-outs in Traction. We model ~7Obps margin dilution for MOfrom Gamesa, resulting in margins of 19.0% (vs 18.9% cons), down -80bps YoY. Expect positive price/cost in 2H.We expect sequentially flat pricing of +1% in 2Q26, withprice/coststill modestly negativeas key rawmaterial inflation (copper andsilver)continuesto run ahead of pricing, typically lagging by 4-6 weeks. Price/cost should improve through2H26as pricingactions catchupwith costinflation,supportingpositive price/costfor2026. InvestmentImplications CompanyModel|ABBN.SW/ABBLtd 10Jun2026-USIndustrials&Tech:TheDataCenterProjectPipeline-Capacity.Construction&Cancellations(May26) 23Apr 2026-ABB1Q'26:More upside to 2026,but at an ever higher price26Mar2026-Futureof Tech:AlData CenterstounlockSolid-StateTransformation30Jan 2026-ABB4Q'25:Astrong2026 lies ahead,but ata steep price28 Jan 2026-Powering Al: Deep diving the 800 VDC shift-quantifying the impact on electricals content and growth7Jan 2026 -EU Capital Goods: 2026Outlook-Red pill or blue pill; investingfor an Al boom or an Al bubble19 Nov 2025 - ABB: New Berlin provides no new growth upgrades28 Oct 2025 - ABB: The growth pivot is finally here...23 Jul 2025 -ABB: What would a refresh of mid-term targets look like? References to"Bernstein"or the“Firm"in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April1,2024onwards),Sanford C.Bernstein &Co., LLC (preApril 1,2024),BernsteinAutonomousLLP,BSGFrance S.A.(April1,2024onwards),Sanford C.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，Sanford C.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordSanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK（7才下·C·八夕个株式会社）andanalystsemployedbySocieteGeneraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Societe Génerale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. a 2% terminal growth rate. RISKS ABB Ltd marginexpansion in Electrificationthat drives grouplevelperformance.3)Stronger data centergrowthas industrymovestodirectcurrent technology where ABB has a historically strong position. Downside risks: 1) Failure to deliver on further margin improvement in the US which drives Electrification margins higher 2) M&Arisks,ifABB weretopursuealargerdeal (previouslylinkedwithapursuitofLegrandaccordingtoBloomberg)3)Adversenegativereactiontoanyearningsdisappointmentsgivenlargevaluationpremiumtopeers. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSAND DISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges,