巴斯夫2026年第二季度业绩前关键主题

Sebastien Afoy+44 207 762 1032sebastien.afoy@bernsteinsg.com Price Target BASF - Key Themes Ahead of 2Q26 Results We regularly hold calls with companies, making sure we are up-to-date with their latest communications. We recently caught up with BASFin the lead up to their 2Q26 reporting, and provide an update of the key themes below. The company messaging around Q2 was positive, with currently analyst expectations considered a floor.The company sawpositive volumes yoy in April and May and was able to maintain a solid order book through June. On a YoY basis, the strongest EBITDAimprovements are expected from Chemicals and Materials, supported by higher commodity prices earlier in the quarter. Materials isexpected to perform very strongly, but Chemicals division Vara consensus of €521m of Q2 may be a touch optimistic in the context of theLudwigshafen turnaround. Industrial Solutions should also increase YoY. Nutrition & Care and Agricultural Solutions are expected to besimilar YoY, whereas Surface Technologies is expected to decline given weaker auto production and lower precious metal prices. Giventhis performance, BASF were confident in at least performing in-line with Vara consensus on 2Q EBITDA before special items: Vara:€2,052m; BERNe:€2,048m; albeit other consensus sources are starting to factor this in (Bloomberg consensus €2,114m and VisibleAlpha consensus at €2,117m). The Q3 outlook seems solid, which we believe means an imminent guidance raise, albeit demand uncertainty may mean BASFraises more conservatively than consensus expects.BASF noted that the June order book was progressing solidly, which prices stillelevated versus prior to the start of the conflict. In our view, even if formula pricing is likely to decline in the coming months followingthe oil price, the ongoing supply constraints mean that upstream volumes likely remain solid. Furthermore, Ludwigshafen is currentlyin the process of starting up after the mandatory turnaround, which should support the coming months. We expect this to support aguidance raise in the coming weeks from the existing €6.2-7.0bn range. However, we believe the Vara FY26 Adj. EBITDA consensusof €7,303m (BB / VA consensus is also €7.3bn) already factors in a reasonably bullish view of 2H, and the company may not be willingto raise guidance as far as expectations at the mid-point in July. As time passes we may see more segments under the pressure thatCare Chemicals currently faces, where weaker demand and higher competition put downwards pressure on margins, and the companyare likely to remain conservative given the uncertainty. Nevertheless, just because guidance is cautious doesn’t mean expectations areunrealistic - for upstream chemicals at least, however, we expect resilience in volumes (see report The Long View: Chemicals - Analysingthe lasting impact on upstream chemicals of the Iran war). And the impending separation of Ag Solutions could also act as a catalyst in H2. EXPECTED CHANGE TO CONSENSUS EARNINGS For more, please see reports: James Hooper+44 20 7676 6995 james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com 26 May 2026 - The Long View: Chemicals - Analysing the lasting impact on upstream chemicals of the Iran war 01 May 2026 - BASF 1Q26: Managing high expectations 20 Apr 2026 - Chemicals: Positioning for an Iran-related cycle and upgrading Arkema to Market-Perform BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY BASF SE In three years time we believe that BASF shares will be worth €73, based on a 2028E Sum of the Parts (SotP) using AdjustedEBITDA. We value the Verbund, ECMS and Battery Materials businesses at 7x EBITDA. We value Feed Enzymes at 15x EBITDA,and Agricultural Solutions at 10x EBITDA. For Coatings, we used the publicly announced transaction values. We take a weightedaverage EBITDA multiple for Other / Central costs, and apply an EV bridge using the 28E balance sheet. Discounting this backtwo years at a WACC of 8.7% gives us our 12-month €61 Price Ta