智利：选定问题

CHILE SELECTED ISSUES This paperonChilewas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund asbackground documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It isbased on the information available at the time it was completed onJune18, 2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.orgPrice: $18.00per printed copy International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. CHILE SELECTED ISSUES June18, 2026 ApprovedByWestern HemisphereDepartment PreparedbyFrancisco Cabezon(RES),Kazuhiro Hiraki(MCM),andMyrto Oikonomou (WHD). CONTENTS CHILE’S PENSION REFORM—FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE MINIMUMGUARANTEED PENSION_____________________________________________________________3 A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________3B. Overview of the Chilean Pension System and the 2025 Pension Reform_____________4C. Challenges in the Current Design of the PGU________________________________________6D. Baseline Scenario and the Role of Indexation________________________________________8E. Reform Scenarios____________________________________________________________________9F. Conclusion_________________________________________________________________________11 FIGURES 1. Distribution of Pension Contributions and Savings at Retirement____________________72. Scenario Analysis for Share of Population with SavingsBelowLower PGU Threshold83. PGU CostsUnder Baseline Scenario__________________________________________________94. Pension EvolutionUnder Baseline and Reform Scenarios__________________________11 ANNEX I. Model Description__________________________________________________________________12 References____________________________________________________________________________15 PUBLIC SPENDING TRENDS AND BENCHMARKING EFFICIENCY IN EDUCATIONAND HEALTH SECTORS_____________________________________________________________16 A. Introduction_______________________________________________________________________16B. Overall Spending Trends___________________________________________________________16 C. Efficiency in Health and Education Spending_______________________________________________21D. Conclusion_________________________________________________________________________________28 FIGURES 1. Expenditure Ratios by Economic Transaction_______________________________________________172. Selected Expenditure Categories by Economic Transaction,Chile & OECD_________________183. Expenditure Ratios by Economic Function,Chile & OECD__________________________________194. Expenditure Ratios by Economic Function Over Time,Chile & OECD_______________________205. Selected Healthcare Inputs_________________________________________________________________226. Selected Health Outcomes_________________________________________________________________237. Selected Public Healthcare Spending Indicators____________________________________________248. Efficiency Frontiers in the Healthcare Sector________________________________________________259. Selected Education Outcomes______________________________________________________________2610. Selected Education Spending Indicators__________________________________________________2711. Efficiency Frontiers in the Education Sector_______________________________________________28 References____________________________________________________________________________________30 PENSION REFORM AND CHILEAN CAPITAL MARKETS____________________________________31 A. Introduction________________________________________________________________________________31B. Overview of theTwoPensionFundSystems_______________________________________________32C. Estimating theSize ofAssetReallocationsDue to theTransition___________________________35D. Implementation of theTransition to theGenerationalFundSystem_______________________45E. Conclusions________________________________________________________________________________50 FIGURES 1.Asset ReallocationsUnder the Multi-fund-based Example Glide Paths_____________________382. Asset ReallocationsUnder the Model-based Example Glide Paths_________________________41 ANNEXES I.Overview of the Chilean Pension System____________________________________________________52II. Life-cycle Optimal Portfolio Model_________________________________________________________53III. PensionFunds’DerivativeInvestment_____________________________________________________56 References____________________________________________________________________________________61 CHILE’S PENSION REFORM—FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OFTHE MINIMUM GUARANTEED PENSION1 Chile approved a comprehensive pension reform in 2025 that, among otherchanges, significantlyraises the contribution rate, aiming to lift pension adequacy. Thischapteranalyzesimplicati