2026年第三季度展望：欧洲改善，美国交付

Q3Outlook-EuropeimprovesUSdelivers Maximilian Uleer, Head of European Equity- and Cross Asset Strategy CarolinRaab,EuropeanEquity-andCrossAssetStrategist Francesca Mazzali, European Equity- and Cross Asset Strategist July2026 Executive Summary Q2 was dominated by the Iran war, rising semi stocks, US earnings and mega IPOs. With market attention toward the Iran warfading, potentially no near-term record IPOs and the semi-shortage being well acknowledged, we expect the focus of investors toshift. Regional Calls:Europe has all the ingredients to outperform the Us in Q3, except for earnings. Positioning, lower energy prices, a more strong.WethusexpectasimilarpatternasinQ2.EuropeanoutperformancebeforeandaftertheearningsseasonbutstrongerUSequities during the earnings season. Germany: The reform hammer is in full swing, but investors have largely ignored German equities in Q2. We expect the tide to turn fromoutflows in Q2 to inflows in Q3. Apart from ever-changing short-term sentiment shifts, we stick with our view that German mid-see the reform hammer hit markets. Sectors: We look for sectors with catch up potential, negative correlations to rates and improving earnings growth and find an interestingrallied by 46% since April 2024. Higher commodity prices seem priced in and a stronger USD, tariff uncertainty and seasonalityprovidenear-termheadwinds. We also maintain our overweight recommendation on small and mid-caps. Combined with our positive view on Germany, thisremains one of the clearest expressions of our constructive European equity outlook. After the sharp decline in energy prices topre-warlevelsinthepast4weeks,tailriskshavemostlydissolved. Agenda Directional view p.3 Europe vs US p. 6 2 p. 11 3 Sectors p. 17 Rates / Credit p. 31 5 FX / Commodities p. 34 Appendixp. 38 Directional viewWe remain O/W equities due to solid earnings growth and moderately high valuations. We close our call to add OTM puts to hedge tail risks. Directional viewBroad based growth - there is a good chance that each of the 19 European sectors will see positive earnings growth in H2 Index targetsWe expect European equities to offer 3% more upside, with a strong preference for German mid-caps (11% upside).Europe onEuropeanequitymarkets,expectingmarketstocontinuetorecoverasthewarinIrande-escalates.Aftertheinitialrally,westill forecast 1-5% upsidefor themajor European indices byyearend.Equities should be supported by solid earnings growth based onpositive economicgrowth,fadinguncertainty,and increased fiscalspending. Acknowledging strong Energyearnings and resilient earningsoutsideof Energy,wereviseourFY26earningsforecastupto12%(10%previously). Valuations have started to recover,andweexpectsomemoreupsideforP/Es thankstofadinggeopoliticaluncertaintyandaresilient macrobackdrop Regionally,weremaintacticallyneutralonUSvsEuropeanequitiesbutseeveryshort-termopportunities (see slide 7). WeremainmostbullishonGermanmid-caps, supported by theacceleratingreformmomentumand low positioning. Europe vs US We remain NEUTRAL but see potential for very tactical investors to go O/W Europe intothe earnings season, O/W US during and again O/W Europe after the earnings season.Key takeawaysQ2 earn.season tofollowa similar pattern asQ1 Positioning, energy prices, the rates outlook and macro data all 1.06 speak infavourofturningoverweight onEuropevsUS.Butweremain neutralfornow.USearnings aresimply extraordinary.TherelativeperformancecouldtakeasimilartrajectorytotheQ1reporting season: European equities outperformed by 2% into theearningsseason,thenunderperformedbyalmost8%duringthepeak4weeksoftheearningsseasonandthenoutperformedby5%thereafter.Positioning:Arare constellationof stronginflows into USbut outflowsfromEuropeanequitiesoccurredinQ2.Asimilarconstellationinlate2024/early2025wasfollowedbyasubstantialoutperformanceofEuropeanequities. should beapositivefollowingtherecent slumpintheoil price. Economicsurprises:Europeaneconomicdatahasbecomeless badwhileUS databecameless supportiverelativetoexpectations. Rates:Ratehikes arenowmorelikely intheUSthan inEuropeEuropeancoreandheadlineinflationdroppedinJune,makingahikeincreasingly unlikely Earnings:IntheQ2reportingseason,weexpectUSearningsgrowthtoreachalmost30%yoyversus14%inEurope,wherebyEuropeangrowthisexpectedtobemainlydrivenbytheEnergysector. Ifyouwonderwhywespendsomuchtimeonourrelativeregionalcalls,lookatslide10,whereweshowthatthealphapotentialfromrelativeregionalcallsoverthepast3yearswasthehighestinfourdecades. Europe vs USAlthough economic surprises, the rates outlook and flows speak in favour of Europe, US earnings are too strong for Europe to outperform throughout Q3. Europe vs US We remain NEUTRALinto Q3 Europe vs USOver the last 3y, taking a stance on EU vs Us has become increasingly important as the magnitude of relative swings was unusually high Germany: Reform hammer in full swingWith investor attention moving away from the Iran war and proof of t