2026年欧洲、中东及非洲（EMEA）私募资本展望

2026 EMEA PrivateCapital Outlook Institutional Research Group Nalin PatelDirector of Research,EMEA Private Capitalnalin.patel@pitchbook.com Our analysts’ outlook for EMEA private capital in 2026 Navina RajanSenior Research Analyst,EMEA Private Capitalnavina.rajan@pitchbook.com PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Nicolas Moura, CFA, CAIASenior Research Analyst,EMEA Private Capitalnicolas.moura@pitchbook.com 2026 outlooks pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com 3The ratio of PE-backed companies to public companies in Europe will reach afresh record of 2.3x. Published on 4 December 2025 5US investor participation will reach 25% of European PE deal count. 7Europe’s IPO window will stay open, with mostly profitable listings. 9AI will make up more than half of European VC deal value. 11Stockholm will challenge the big three European private market hubs: London,Paris, and Berlin. 13Saudi private capital markets will continue developing in the MENA region. Introduction At present, opportunities and risks are abundant across various countries, sectors, andasset classes in the EMEA region. Public markets are choppy, geopolitics are frosty,and AI valuations are frothy. As a result, it is becoming increasingly challenging topredict what will happen in the region’s private markets. Tariffs, central bank policies,and the rapid development of AI infrastructure emerged as key factors in 2025. Looking back on the past year, both European and MENA PE deal values are shapingup to be some of the strongest on record, underscoring the asset class’s recoveryafter two years of pressure from higher interest rates. 2025 has shown positivemomentum via an increase in megadeals, and US investor participation in Europeandeals continues to rise steadily. The Nordic region has exhibited resilience in PE dealcount compared with other parts of Europe. Among sectors, sports are becoming anincreasingly attractive option for PE firms, as reflected in the growing pace of deals. Atthe current run rate, full-year European PE exit activity is on track to finish with modestYoY growth, a much stronger outcome than anticipated at the end of Q2. In 2025,European PE fundraising has slowed significantly, following the trend already observedin North America and Asia over the past two years. European VC dealmaking softened in Q3 2025, signalling that full-year totals maydecline YoY. Activity is increasingly concentrated in larger rounds, particularly inAI. The AI sector continues to dominate, accounting for nearly 40% of deal value inEurope YTD and setting the pace with blockbuster raises. Outside of Europe, SaudiArabia has grown its share of VC deal count in the MENA region. European exitactivity so far in 2025 can be defined by the “Klarna effect,” with the fintech company’sIPO accounting for nearly a quarter of exit value YTD. Beyond Klarna’s listing, exitmomentum remains muted, with activity trending lower than last year and reliant on ahandful of large transactions. IPOs have increased their share of exit value as publicmarket volatility has subsided, yet volumes remain thin, underscoring how recovery isconcentrating in a few large transactions. 2025 is shaping up to be one of the weakestyears for European VC fundraising in recent history, with momentum slowing sharplysince 2024. Using our proprietary data and in-house expertise, the 2026 EMEA Private CapitalOutlook explores major themes our analysts consider important in the year ahead. OUTLOOK Nicolas Moura, CFA, CAIASenior Analyst, EMEA Private Capitalnicolas.moura@pitchbook.com The ratio of PE-backed companies to public companiesin Europe will reach a fresh record of 2.3x. Europe’s PE universe has expanded dramatically over the past decade. Since 2014,the number of PE-backed companies has doubled to roughly 13,800, while the numberof publicly listed firms has remained largely stagnant, hovering between 5,700 and7,000 for the past two decades. PE-backed companies first outnumbered listed firmsin 2011, marking the start of private markets’ structural ascent. The next milestonearrived in 2024, when the PE-backed cohort was twice the size of the public universe. We expect this divergence to persist in 2026. The growth of PE-backed businesses isexpected to continue outpacing public market growth as allocations to PE rise withininvestor portfolios. Historically, the asset class has delivered superior risk-adjustedreturns, attracting both institutional capital and, more recently, private wealth and retailinvestors through semi-liquid fund structures. This democratisation of access shouldsustain momentum even as traditional fundraising slows at the institutional level. Public markets, by contrast, remain challenged. IPO activity in Europe has beensubdued, with exchanges such as the London Stock Exchange seeing recorddelistings. European companies have also