欧洲股票策略：2026年展望：不仅仅是人工智能

AI may hold the fate of equities in 2026, but it is not the onlyshow in town. Dual fiscal/monetary stimulus shouldliftUS/EU GDP growth above trend, and help improve marketbreadth. Valuation cushion is limited, but Europe has easyearnings comps to help. 620 SXXP target, OW Cyclicals &Banks. European Equity Strategy Emmanuel Cau, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 0475emmanuel.cau@barclays.comBarclays, UK Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 5983magesh.kumarchandrasekaran@barclays.comBarclays, UK Emmanuel Makonga+44 (0)20 7773 2593emmanuel.makonga@barclays.comBarclays, UK Arihanth Bohra Jain+91 (0)22 6175 1406arihanth.bohrajain@barclays.comBarclays, UK 2026 Outlook – More than just AI Regime change was our key theme for 2025, looking for Trump 2.0 to fuel more volatility butmore equity upside too. We weren't disappointed, as global equities have had another strongyear, up 18%, despite hiccups along the way, buoyed by the AI frenzy. This raises the bar forpositive surprises into 2026, as investors are increasingly worried about downside risks from AIand macro/geopolitical tail-risks abound. For now, we think equities will continue to climb thewall of worry, as the AI supercycle has legs, with capex backed by strong balance sheets andprofitability, while adoption is rising fast. But AI is no longer a one-way-trade, nor the only showin town: monetary/fiscal easing shouldliftUS/EU GDP growth above trend, and help improvemarket breadth. Against this backdrop, we find EU equities well positioned to capture some Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. (iii)This author is a member of the EMEA Equity Research department who may publish equityand debt research Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 129.Completed: 17-Nov-25, 23:43 GMTReleased: 18-Nov-25, 04:00 GMTRestricted - External reflationary tailwinds, given their cheaper valuation, lower crowding and easier earningscomps, without being overly dependent on the fate of the AI trade, although politics remain arisk. Mega trends also bring opportunities to diversify portfolios and explore new themes in AIinfrastructure, energy transition, resources resilience, space & quantum, and consciousconsumption. So if the AI boom doesn't end in tears and other parts of the market manage tocatch up, equities should be able to deliver decent and potentially front-loaded returns in 2026.This is what we are positioned for, with an SXXP target of 620 (+9%) and a pro-cyclical sector tilt.But the path ahead is narrow and we consider alternative scenarios. Economies and markets' over-reliance on the AI narrative raises risks if the music stops,particularly for the US and Asia. But we think the growth impetus from AI-related capex, whilepeaking, will stay elevated. Rising leverage to fund capex by hyperscalers may warrant higherrisk premia, but is starting from a low level and backed by strong cash generation, while AIadoption is rising fast;2) Financial repression underpins risk assets. Ever-growing publicdebts & deficits are forcing central banks to let economies run hot and keep a lid on rates. Welook for three more cuts by the Fed, and an end to QT. But depending on how inflation evolves,changing expectations of the terminal rate may fuel volatility, while the broad central banksimpulse may wane somewhat in H2;3) Cyclical recoveryahead, as thetariffdrag moderatesand dual monetary & fiscal policy stimulus in the US and GermanyliftUS/EU GDP growth abovepotential. Resilient wages and moderate inflation should support consumption, while easingfinancial conditions mayliftnon-resi capex;4) Earnings to do the heavylifting.Operatingleverage, easy comps and fading FX headwinds should help European EPS to grow 8% in 2026,led by Cyclicals,afterbeing flat for three years. We are slightly below consensus (12%), butexpect milder-than-usual downgrades;5) Valuations upside limited, but dispersion is high andwe see room for a further small P/E re-rating in Europe given positive EPS momentum,supportive liquidity and strong balance sheets;6) High positioning still leaves dry powder.Aggregate positioning is above-average, but not extreme, and highly concentrated. There is nodearth of dry powder, with $7.5trn in money market funds. And 70% of announced buybacks for2026 haven't been executed yet. Upside risks:OBBB stimulus front-loaded but inflation remains low and the Fed cuts more;China stimulates more; AI adoption leads to rapid productivity gains and margins boom; Russia-Ukra