欧洲半导体：2026年展望 - 将ASML上调至跑赢大盘并列为首选

EU Semis: 2026 outlook - Upgrading ASML to Outperform and TopPick We upgrade ASML to Outperform and make it our top pick in EU semis for 2026. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com ASML benefits from the upcoming DRAM super cycle: Top 3 DRAM makers are adding upto 250kwpm greenfield capacity in 2026, and are accelerating the node migration to 1c.This is great for ASML, as litho intensity for 1c is 28% based on our estimates, much higherthan previous nodes of 20-24%. The DRAM tech migration headwind is also alleviated:4F2migration is still a concern for EUV as feature size would increase, but it is likely to bepostponed as suppliers prioritize manufacturability over cost in an up cycle. Advanced logicwill be another driver with TSMC reportedly expanding 3nm capacity to 180-200kwpmto address AI demand, and 3nm is the highest in litho intensity. Putting them together, webelieve 2026 and 2027 will be big years for EUV and for ASML, and raise ASML EPS growthto 18% CAGR in 2025-27 (consensus 15%). In terms of valuation, ASML is now trading attrough premium over SPE peers (1x vs. historical average of 1.6x). We upgrade ASML toOutperform, PT = €1,300.00, 32% potential upside. Carmine Milano+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Conversely, we cut Besi revenue by 8% (10% below consensus) in 2026 due toslower adoption of fluxless TCB. Our previous expectation was that Besi’s fluxless TCB will be adopted by Micron for the ramp up HBM4 production. However, recentdevelopments led us to believe that the technology roadmap has changed. HBM4 can nowbe manufactured with the existing flux-based TCB tools, and hence Micron, as well as otherDRAM makers, are more likely to stick to the existing suppliers instead of Besi. Meanwhile,hybrid bonding won’t see big increase in adoption in 2026, as major expansion in logiccustomers is happening in 2027 and HBM in 2028. We cut Besi 2026 revenue growth in2026 to 27% and EPS to 54% (from 81%), and we are now 25% below consensus for2026 EPS. Because of big earning growth in 2027 (83%) and long term prospects, wemaintain Outperform rating, but trim PT to €165.00 and flag the near term downwardrevision. For Infineon, we maintain our Outperform rating with numbers and thesisunchanged. AI server power business remains its most significant growth driver, with revenue surpassing EUR 750Mn in FY25 and expected to double to EUR 1.5Bn thisyear, contributing 10% revenue. We forecast AI power to double again in 2028 to ~EUR3Bn. Longer term growth is driven by power architecture changes and IFX’s confidence insustaining 30–40% market share, potentially reaching EUR 5Bn by 2030. In Automotive,while we remain cautious on ATV revenue, upside exists as semi content per vehicle rises,driven by xEV penetration, ADAS integration, and the transition to SDVs. Industrial shouldbenefit from a gradual recovery, supporting GIP growth of 5% in FY26 and low-teensthereafter. Margin expansion will be underpinned by declining underutilization charges, fullexecution of the Step-Up cost program, and a richer product mix, with AI power and MarvellEthernet offering gross margins near 60% versus IFX’s current 40%. Combined, thesedrivers position IFX for accelerating revenue and margin gains, translating into adjustedEPS growth of roughly 30% CAGR over the next 3 years. We value IFX using a target P/E multiple of 22x, which translates into a PT of EUR 51, representing a 34% upside. Wereiterate our Outperform rating.Pecking order for 2026: ASML > Infineon > Besi. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We upgradeASML to Outperformrating with PT lifted to €1,300.00, for the DRAM capacity growth acceleration and EUVintensity increase in 1c node. ASML is now the top pick of EU Semis. Conversely, we cutBesiearnings in 2026 due to theslow migration to fluxless TCB in HBM, while maintainingOutperform rating with PT cut to €165.00.Infineon rating ismaintained at Outperformfor the sector recovery and AI power growth, PT€51.00. DETAILS ASML: UPGRADING TO OUTPERFORM We updated our ASML, EUV and DUV models, download here: (ASML.NA / ASML Holding NV;EUV Model;DUV Model). We upgrade ASML to Outperform rating with PT = €1,300.00, and make it the top pick of the sector for 2026 driven byunprecedented AI demand for both Logic and DRAM chips. DRAM SUPERCYCLE While many believe ASML’s growth will be primarily driven by logic, we think the upside from DRAM is significantlyunderestimated. ASML stands to benefit enormously from the wave of capacity expansion planned for 2026 and 2027, coveringboth general DRAM and HBM. We believe the DRAM super cycle will trigger massive capacity additions and a much higherpenetration of the 1c node, which carries substantially higher EUV intensity. •The top 3 DRAM makers are raising capex and accelerating expansion in 2026 and 2027 to meet surging demand from AIservers, which require both general DRAM and HBM. P