小米：全面发力——将目标价上调至60.00港元，重申跑赢大盘

RatingOutperformPrice Target1810.HKReported EPS1810.HK (CNY)OLDSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.OutperformXiaomi reported Q1 25 results on May 27 (Link to our quick take), delivering an impressiveperformance across the board. Revenue soared +47.4% yoy to RMB 111.3bn, with grossmargin hitting a record 22.8%. Net income saw a robust increase of +161% yoy, achieving a9.8% net margin. Following a review of Q1 results, we lifted our earnings estimates and raisedTP to HK$60.00. We reiterate our Outperform rating for Xiaomi.The stellar Q1 performance was driven by broad-based strength across all businesssegments. Smartphones saw significant market share gain in China, rising over 4ppt bothqoq and yoy basis to 18.8% in Q1 25. The robust growth in China also underpinned resilientASP performance. The IoT segment exhibited exceptional momentum, with revenue +59%yoy, led by a remarkable 114% yoy growth in large home appliances. Gross margin in thissegment expanded significantly by 5 ppt to 25.2%, compared to Q1 24 and Q4 24. WhileXiaomi is well-positioned to benefit from China's subsidy policies in both the smartphone andIoT sectors due to its product portfolio, we believe the strong performance is also supportedby enhanced product quality, improved technological capabilities, and strengthened brandequity, further bolstered by the continuous traction in EVs.Reflecting the stronger-than-expected momentum, particularly in the IoT & lifestyle business,we raised our revenue forecast by 4% for 2025 and 3% for 2026, and lifted EPS estimatesby 28% for 2025 and 16% for 2026. We now project EPS to reach RMB 1.73 for 2025 andRMB 2.08 for 2026. Near-term positive catalysts include the upcoming Xiaomi Investor Dayon June 3 and the YU7 model launch in July.Investment ImplicationsWe reiterate our Outperform rating on Xiaomi and raised our price target to HK$60.00(Old:HK$55.00), based higher earnings estimates particularly for the IoT segment. We valueXiaomi based on SOTP, that correlates to 27x 1-yr forward P/E.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 12:07 UTC Completion Date: 29 May 2025 12:07 UTC 60.00 HKD(55.00OLD)F26E2.081.78FinancialsRevenues (M)Gross Profit (M)Operating Earnings (M)Net Earnings (M) F24AF25E0.951.73--1.35F24AF25EF26ECAGR365,906503,563617,98430.0%76,560117,490145,13137.7%24,50350,86861,44258.4%23,57842,76751,55447.9%F26E22.81.715.517.2Close Date51.7060.0016%SPXFYEDecDiv YieldNAEV (HKD) (B)Performance12MAbsolute (%)190.8SPX (%)11.0Relative (%)179.8HK$70HK$60HK$50HK$40HK$30HK$2005/24 VALUATION COMPS TABLEEXHIBIT 1:Vluation comps tableMarket capEVCars Sold$m$mmXiaomi171,133157,5110.2BYD154,581143,1944.3Li29,86516,7190.5XPeng18,39816,3580.2NIO8,2439,3180.2China EVs382,221343,1005.4SAIC26,13437,7364.0Great Wall23,58727,2781.2Geely22,76918,8412.2GAC9,03010,6462.0China OEMs81,52094,5009.4Mercedes-Benz§57,92419,0382.4BMW§57,21546,0322.5Volkswagen§55,427116,7739.0Stellantis#29,20318,3155.4Renault§002.3Volvo Cars&5,6004,8220.8EU OEMs205,369204,98022.3GM#46,27445,0286.0Ford#40,44234,4034.5US OEMs86,71579,43010.5Tesla+1,149,5591,126,4561.8Rivian*17,74716,5760.1Lucid*8,0227,9640.0Polestar#2,2584,267n.a.US EVs1,177,5861,155,2631.9Toyota%297,625235,3199.4Honda%54,430102,6162.8Suzuki%25,25529,2553.4Subaru%13,8163,4070.9Nissan%9,7462,9962.7Mitsubishi*4,48801.0Mazda%4,1099931.2Japanese OEMs409,467374,58621.4Hyundai*28,480124,3244.1Kia*26,98813,3823.1Korean OEMs55,468137,7067.2Ferrari§85,11476,8730.014Porsche AG§44,65442,4680.3Aston Martin&1,1102,5320.006Luxury OEMs130,877121,8730.3Global OEMs (ex EV)969,4171,013,07571.2Global EVs1,559,8071,498,3637.2Source: Pricing date: May 29, 2025; # covered by Bernstein's Daniel Roeska; § covered by Bernstein's Stephen Reitman; & covered by Bernstein's Harry Martin; %covered by Bernstein's Masahiro Akita* not covered by Bernstein; calculated EVs exclude finco debtASIAN AUTOS DETAILS27 May 2025 - Xiaomi Q1: Strong Beat — All cylinders on fire, impressive margin improvements; Reiterate Outperform23 May 2025 - Global Autos: Earnings Wrap, Nice Conference, Blackbooks, and the Xiaomi YU 7 (ICYMI week 21)22 May 2025 - Xiaomi: Launch of Xring O1 Chip — first in-house 3nm SoC; More details unveiled for YU7 SUV, set for Julylaunch18 May 2025 - Chinese Autos: Momentum remains strong — April retail vol. +9.8% yoy, EV sales penetration 51%15 Apr 2025 - Xiaomi's EV-olution: A unique synergistic ecosystem with promising EV prospects; Initiating at Outperform — PTHK$55Smartphones:We are encouraged by Xiaomi's strengthening position in the smartphone industry (Exhibit 2). In China, Xiaomi'smarket share reached a record high of 18.8% in Q1 25, a significant increase from 14.0% in Q1 24 and 14.7% for the fullyear 2024 (Exhibit 3). The company experienced a 40% growth in smartphone shipments in China, outpacing the ind