超威半导体（AMD）：2026年第一季度回顾——我们总是后起之秀……上调评级至跑赢大盘

Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform(Market-PerformOLD) Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Q126 recap - well, we always werelate bloomers...upgrading to Outperform AMD’s Q1 results were very good ($10.2B/$1.37 vs Street $9.9B/$1.28), with strongDatacenter, Client and Gaming above expectations, and Embedded roughly in-line; withinDatacenter server CPUs grew >50% YoY. Q2 outlook was also very strong ($11.2B/~$1.59vs Street $10.5B/$1.43). Datacenter is seen up double-digits sequentially, well aboveexpectations, with server CPUs seen up >70% YoY. Client is also seen above expectationsthough with 2H headwinds; Gaming outlook is below (~$760M vs Street at $793M) withsignificant 2H declines on memory dynamics. Embedded is seen up DD% QoQ, aboveexpectations. We have continually been surprised not only by the strength of AMD’s business but also bythe strength of the stock (with shares +16% in the aftermarket after climbing by almost40% over the last ~3 weeks). That being said, while many stocks have been climbingstrictly on vibes lately the company deserves significant credit for a fundamental story thatincreasingly is looking real. Given the agentic AI boom, we believe that management’s newoutlook for a doubling of their prior TAM (to a 35% CAGR by 2030 reaching ~$120B) islooking potentially plausible, and given their competitive product position AMD appearsincreasingly well-positioned to benefit from it. And they have a GPU story as well, with theirtwo anchor customers (OAI and Meta) set to ramp into year-end (numbers that to us have stillnot appeared to be fully reflected in Street models), with maybe more to come? While we have acknowledged warming to the company in recent work we have remained onthe sidelines, and of course jumping on the bandwagon now feels late. Nevertheless (late ornot) our own model now exceeds $14 in 2027, and we believe EPS approaching $20 in 2028feels plausible assuming the AI boom continues. While cautioning our clients that our historywith AMD bull calls is spotty at best, and acknowledge risks (Helios ramp and customertraction, supply, 2H PCs, AI sustainability etc) this is enough to win us over, and we think theshares probably go up from here even after the run. We upgrade to Outperform, and raise ourPT to $525 (~35x vs 20x prior, on new FY27 EPS of $14.60). Investment Implications DETAILS For our updated model please click here:AMD Model. AMD’s Q1 results were very good ($10,253M/$1.37 vs Street $9,888M/$1.28), with Datacenter, Client and Gamingabove expectations, and Embedded roughly in-line. Within Datacenter server CPUs continue to show strength withrevenues up >50% YoY; within Client AMD continues to see share gains and good commercial adoption of theirlatest Ryzen processors (with commercial sell-through increasing >50% YoY). Gross margins were slightly above at~55.4%, however, like prior quarters, opex spending was higher than expected. We suspect GPU sales were probably~$2.3B or so, below consensus at ~$2.5B. •AMD's Q1 revenuescame in at $10,253M, above expectations (Street at $9,888M) (Exhibit 1), with the beat driven primarilyby Client and Datacenter. Sales were flattish sequentially and up ~38% YoY (Exhibit 2). •Non-GAAP gross marginswere 55.4%, slightly above the Street (55.1%) and guidance (~55%), and down ~160bpssequentially, given last quarter’s MI 308 inventory release. Excluding the release, margins were up 50bps QoQ (Exhibit 4).•Non-GAAP operating expenseswere $3,145M, above expectations (consensus at $3,036M).•Pro-forma EPSwas $1.37, above the Street at $1.28 (Exhibit 1).•Data Center(server CPUs, data center GPUs and Xilinx datacenter products) revenues were above expectations, at $5,775Mvs consensus at $5,608M, given server CPU strength. Revenue was up 7% QoQ and up 57% YoY (Exhibit 5,Exhibit 6).Within Datacenter, we suspect GPU sales were probably a ~$2.3 or so, below consensus at ~$2.5B.•Client(desktop and notebook processors and chipsets) revenues were above expectations at $2,885M vs consensus at$2,734M, down 7% QoQ and up 26% YoY on continued share gains and commercial adoption of the latest Ryzen processors(commercial sell through increasing >50% YoY).•AMD's Client revenues were above the overall PC market sequentially, as estimated using 3rd-party PC market data (Exhibit7).•Gaming(discrete graphic processors and semi-custom game console products) revenues were $720M in Q1, aboveconsensus at $669M, down 15% QoQ but up 11% YoY.•Embedded(AMD and Xilinx embedded products) revenues were $873M in the quarter, roughly in-line with consensus at$868M, down ~8% QoQ and up 6% YoY.•The All Other categoryhad an operating loss of $1,036M vs a $1,082M loss last quarter (Exhibit 5). Q2 revenue outlook was very strong, seen up ~9% QoQ and above the street ($11,200M/~$1.59 vs Street $10,511M/$1.43), with gross margin of 56% above consensus (55.2%) though with