中国人工智能：2026年供应链上行机会走到台前，上调寒武纪至跑赢大盘

China AI: Supply Chain Upside Takes Center Stage in 2026,upgrade Cambricon to Outperform China’s AI-related stocks have delivered a strong performance this year, momentum partlyfueled by DeepSeek and local AI chip advancements. After a robust run, the market hasrecently entered a consolidation phase since October, with some concern starting aboutthe sustainability of China AI. In this call, we update our China AI chip supply and demandmodel, and believe that the supply chain upside will take center stage in 2026.Outperformon all our semicap, AI fabless and foundry names. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com It’s just the end of the beginning for China’s AI story, we don’t think AI is a bubblein China.2025 has been a good year for China AI initiated by DeepSeek, but from theperspective of supply chain development, China’s AI story is only wrapping up its initialchapter. We expect China CSP and Telco total capex to grow at 13% CAGR (Exhibit 4),with AI capex growing at 25% CAGR through 2028 and landing at USD 172bn by then(Exhibit 5). Importantly, this spending is still healthy: for the listed players total capex isonly 40-60% of their free cash flow, or ~17% of their revenue. Major CSPs have alreadysignaled upward revisions to their capex plans, the majority of which will be allocated to AI,creating USD 88bn of AI chip demand by 2028. Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com The domestic supply chain is gearing up quickly to meet this surging demand.Currently, the biggest bottleneck lies in constrained local advanced logic production capacity, which has limited the output of local AI chips. However, our channel checks reveala critical turning point: advanced logic capacity should start accelerating in 2026/27(Exhibit 12). Given the typical 3-4 quarter lag from foundry production to AI chip sales, thiscapacity addition will translate into a sharp surge in local AI chip sales in 2027/28 (Exhibit14). By 2028, we anticipate the supply of local AI chip will grow 5X compared to 2025, andthe market will achieve a supply-demand balance. Notably, we do not expect NVIDIA toresume sales in China amid the ongoing “backdoor” investigation, as a result local playersare expected to capture >90% of the market share by 2028. Leaders within the China AI Supply Chain will benefit.We forecast a broad rally acrossChina’s entire AI supply chain in 2026, rank AI chip>Semicap>Foundry.AI chipvendorssuch asCambriconandHygonare direct beneficiaries, as early adopter of local foundrythey have secured sufficient advanced logic capacity to fuel the fast growth in the next fewyears. We revise up Cambricon revenue projection to reflect that, and upgrade the stockto Outperform.Semicapstocks such asNAURA, AMEC, Piotech, by contrast, are moredefensive with the most reasonable valuations. Semicap companies not only benefit fromthe expansion of advanced logic but also enjoy upside from the shift in memory demandtoward local suppliers — especially for HBM. They may not offer the largest short-termgains, but they should deliver highly resilient returns.FoundrieslikeSMIC(the primarysupplier of AI chip manufacturing capacity) and Huali should also benefit, which will in turnsupport SMIC andHua Hong’s stock price; however, we expect their stocks will be mainlydriven by market sentiment given their already relatively high valuations. Other supplychain players beyond our coverage, including those focused on CoWoS, HBM, networking,and server assembly, should also share in the growth.We rate all these segmentsOutperform, with Cambricon and NAURA as our top picks. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Cambricon (688256 CH): As the key beneficiary of the AI chip supply surge, we upgrade Cambricon to Outperform with PTCNY 2,000, based on 2027E EPS of CNY 21.80 and 90x P/E (Previously was Market-Perform, 110x P/E at 2026E EPS RMB10.00, PT CNY 1,100). Hygon (688041 CH): We rate Hygon Outperform with PT CNY 280, based on 2027E EPS of 3.48 and 80x P/E. (Previously wasOutperform, 100X P/E based on 2026E EPS RMB 2.20, PT CNY 220). Hua Hong (1347 HK, 688347 CH):We rate Hua Hong Outperform with H-share PT HKD 100 and A-share PT CNY 140, basedon average NTM+1 BVPS of 3.98 USD, and 3.2x P/B with 1.5x A-H premium (Previously was 2.0X P/B for H share & assume55% A/H premium for A share, based on our estimate of NTM average BVPS of USD 3.78, PT for H share at HKD 60 and Ashare at CNY 85). SMIC (981 HK, 688981 CH):We rate SMIC Outperform with H-share PT HKD 100 and A-share PT CNY 150, based onaverage NTM+1 BVPS of 2.81 USD, and 4.2x P/B with 1.7x A-H Premium. (Previously was H-share at 1.5x NTM P/B multiplewith a A-H premium of 3.7x, based on next-four-quarters book value excluding intangible assets and goodwill of USD 2.64 peryear, with a Price Target of HKD 30 / CNY 110 for H/A-share). NAURA (002371 CH):We rate NAURA Outperform with PT CNY 600.00 by raising our m