欧盟半导体行业现状：王冠虽重，责任更大：ASML评级维持"与市场持平"，Besi和英飞凌评级上调至"跑赢大盘"

We initiate on the European Semiconductor sector with the view that advanced packagingand new material adoption will drive semiconductor performance improvement goingforward. Lithography and traditional feature-shrinking, on the other hand, are seeingdiminishing returns despite being the major performance driver for decades.ASML: Heavy is the crown.ASML’s dominance in EUV lithography is undisputed. However,we see EUV lithography is taking up too much (>30%) of leading edge logic capex withdiminishing returns, and EUV capex intensity is likely to drop from 3nm for logic and fromD1d node for DRAM. Instead of lithography, adoption of new transistor structure (GAA,CFET, 4F2) and advanced packaging will continue the transistor shrinking. Our 2030EUV revenue is hence 24% below ASML guidance (EUV Model). ASML also had ~€5bnovershipment of DUV tools (~40% of its 2024 DUV revenue) to China during 2023-25which needs to be digested (DUV Model). We believe ASML’s growth will be in line with WFEat 7% 2024-30e CAGR, and our 2030 revenue forecast is 18% below consensus and atthe low end of the company guidance. At 25x PE multiple, we believe the risk-reward isbalanced. We rateASML Market-Perform, TP = €700(5% upside). (ASML Model)Besi: Strong bonding for the future. Besi is the dominant supplier of Hybrid Bonding(HB), which is the ultimate choice of advanced packaging for the highest-performance logicand memory applications. Besi’s dominance in HB is secured not only by its leadership inbonding but also the partnership with Applied Materials. We expect HB to see increasingadoption in the next decade (HB Model) with major logic customers including TSMC, AMD,Apple, Intel, etc., and HBM will start to migrate to HB from 2027. Thermal CompressionBonding (TCB) is expected to become a new growth driver, with Besi leading in fluxlesstechnology and entering Micron supply chain. We forecast Besi EPS growth CAGR of 41%2024-27, and rate itOutperform, TP = €167.00(33% upside) at 40x P/E, or 1x PEG.(BESI Model)Infineon: Tech leadership to drive outperformance.Infineon leads in automotive MCU(microcontroller) (32% share) and power (29%) with superior technologies. AI server powercontent is growing ~5x (2024-2027e) and Infineon is a leading supplier. SiC is facingchallenges in the short term due to oversupply, but offers promising growth rate of 24%(2024-2029e), and Infineon differentiates with technology and free from SiC substratecompetition. Cycle for industrial and automotive has bottomed, and margin expansion to22.6% in 2027e (from 15.9% in 2025) is in sight with bigger scale and “step up” initiatives.We see EPS growth of 9% CAGR 2024-27e, and rate InfineonOutperform, TP = €45(27% upside) at 20x P/E. (IFX Model)www.bernsteinresearch.com David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.comBERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE13 Jun 2025TTMReported EPSReported P/E (x)ClosingPriceRel.TickerRatingCurPriceTargetPerf.Cur2024A2025E2026E2024AASML.NAMEUR664.60700.00(43.5)%EUR19.2423.4325.0634.5ASMLMUSD761.00806.00(36.0)%USD20.8325.3727.1231.6BESI.NAOEUR125.90167.00(31.9)%EUR2.302.884.7454.7IFX.GROEUR35.1745.00(15.8)%EUR1.871.381.9035.2EDM1,439.59SPX5,976.97COVERAGE INITIATIONO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedIFX.GR estimate is Adjusted EPS;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSASML: Market-Perform, PT: EUR 700.We adopt a conservative stance on ASML's growth profile relative to consensus andguidance. While ASML's technological leadership and the critical role of EUV lithography are clear, our revenue forecast for2030 aligns with the lower end of ASML's guidance and is 18% below consensus estimates. This cautious position primarilyreflects our lower assumptions for EUV growth and the expected normalization of overshipments in China. We value ASML usinga targetP/E of 25xon our 2Y BF EPS of EUR 26.4, translating to a rounded PT of EUR 700 with 5% upside.BE Semiconductor: Outperform, PT: €167.Besi is strategically positioned to capitalize on the advanced packaging trend,thanks to its leadership in product and technology, particularly in areas such as Hybrid Bonding (HB), ThermocompressionBonding (TCB), and die attach processes. While Besi leads in HB, adoption has been slower than expected; however, thetransition to meet sub-10um pitch requirements is a long-term trend. For traditional die attach/plating, the recovery is subdued,but the worst is over, with a cyclical recovery anticipated by 2027. We value BESI using a targetP/E of 40x(1x PEG) on our 2YBF EPS of €4.18, translating to a TP of €167 with 33% upside.Infineon: Outperform, PT: EUR 45.Infineon excels in automotive MCUs and power, holding 32% and 29% market shares,respectively. AI server power content is expected to grow significantly. Despite short-term challenges in SiC, a promising CAGR24-29e of 24% is anticipated, with margin expansion projected to 22.6% by 2027. We value Infineon using a targetP/E of