2026年欧洲信贷市场展望（英）

2026 European Credit Credit Market Analysts David CoxManaging Editor, Europedavid.cox@pitchbook.com Our analysts’ outlook on the European credit Francesca FicaiManaging Editor, Private Credit,Europe PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, most Nishant SharmaReporter, Private Credit, Europenishant.sharma@pitchbook.com Michael Rae Senior Editor, CLOs, Europemichael.rae@pitchbook.com 2026 outlooks Thomas BeetonSenior Reporter, High-YieldBonds, Europe 3Leveraged Loans: M&A holds key to success as market eyes new money6Private Credit: Sector shift brings AI, defence in focus9CLOs: Broadening investor base fuels issuance momentum Jean-Marc PoilpréSenior Reporter, Distressed Debt,Europe Taron Wade Head of Credit Research, EMEAtaron.wade@pitchbook.com Published on December 16, 2025 Leveraged Loan Outlook: M&A holds key to success as market eyes new money Technical drivers led loan pricing tighter through 2025 despiterecord gross issuance, as new-money supply continued to lag.Banks and investors say any shift toward more balanced conditions Seethis story and the underlying Excel dataon the •Bank outlooks point to modest growth in 2026 loan volumes anda healthier mix of new money, but execution will hinge on whether money arising from resets, net CLO supply was €40 billion — liftingthe total notional outstanding amount to €300 billion, from €260 •Fundamentals have softened with downgrades rising, triple-Csexpanding and valuation bifurcation deepening — yet a benign This scale of technical support weighed on spreads, which trendedtoward post-crisis lows and are ending the year around E+325 forsolid B2 credits. “The risks have not reduced, but the spreads have •Technical factors were dominant through 2025 in European loans,with record issuance and CLO-driven demand pushing spreads Bank forecasts In volume terms at least, 2025 was a strong year for Europeanloans, marking a second consecutive year of record issuanceof more than €200 billion (including repricings). On a net basis,however, the picture was more muted. The overall size of the market Analysts are hopeful that even if overall volumes do not rise in 2026,new-money supply will. Measures vary by bank, limiting like-for-like comparisons, but the broad message from sellside outlooks is Barclays — using a base assumption for this year of €100 billiongross and €60 billion net — forecasts gross and net supply of €85billion and €70 billion respectively for 2026, according to an outlookpublished Dec. 3. JPMorgan also expects an uptick in volumes, and Deutsche Bank, in a CLO outlook published Nov. 19, expects overallloan volumes to increase to €300 billion next year, from €230billion. The bank does not break out the net component, but notes Finally, Morgan Stanley also expects loan volumes to increase. In itsEuropean Credit Outlook published Nov. 21, the bank said it expectsoverall loan issuance to rise year-on-year by 9%, to €95-100 billion. Part of Morgan Stanley’s optimism on volumes is predicated onrising LBO and M&A activity. These volumes in loans were higherthis year at a combined €41.2 billion (to Nov. 30), according to LCD, Some €57 billion of CLO formation through November underpinneddemand, according to LCD data. According to JPMorgan figures Well-stocked pipeline CLO effect The new year will start with a relatively well-stocked pipelinethat includes large new-money trades from cross-borderborrowers includingElectronic Arts,Sealed Air,Hologic,BASFCoatingsandSmiths Detection. These situations are all either take- Some argue pricing is so tight — and so far away from what CLOsneed — that it will not take much to shift the balance. “Pricing doesnot work for CLOs and it does not work for other credit strategies Another was more circumspect. “Assuming there is €10 billion tolaunch come January, this is not nearly enough to move the needle “The cost of capital is cheap but is no longer free, and corporatesare looking at returns across their portfolios to make sure they pay The year finishes with around 140 CLO warehouses open, filingsshow, versus roughly 120 at the same point last year. Assuming anaverage CLO size of €400 million, pricing at a 50% ramp, that points Several key assets remain in play, includingNestlé’s water andvitamin units, as well asDSM’s animal nutrition business. Europe’sfocus on more traditional industries could also support dealmaking, Either way, the fate of loan markets is inextricably linked toCLOs, which now provide roughly 70% of liquidity in Europe. Sofar, medium-term analyst predictions for CLO formation point toroughly stable volumes through next year, which in turn suggests, “Indices are skewed by a small number of highly valued tech names.Not every sector is trading at high multiples,” said a second banker.“General industrials that have recovered from the tariff shock The bank further argues that a market so dependent on one sourceof demand is not “healthy” and pre