2026年美国信贷市场展望报告

2026 US CreditMarkets Outlook Credit Market Analysts Jonathan HemingwayManaging Editor, US LeveragedLoansjonathan.hemingway@pitchbook.com Our analysts’ outlook on the US credit markets in 2026 Abby LatourManaging Editor, US PrivateCreditabby.latour@pitchbook.com PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Glen FestSenior Editor, US CLOsglen.fest@pitchbook.com Jakema LewisSenior Editor, US High-YieldBondsjakema.lewis@pitchbook.com 2026 outlooks Mairin Burns Senior Reporter, US High-YieldBondsmairin.burns@pitchbook.com 3Leveraged Loans: Market set for modest growth, more M&A5Private Credit: More LBOs, steady-to-wider spreads8CLOs: Volume to remain strong, spreads to widen modestly11High-Yield: Volume to tick higher amid looming maturity wall14Distressed Credit: Bifurcation, maturity wall promise busy year17High-Grade: New-money hunger stokes volume forecasts, leverage angst21PE survey signals positive outlook for 2026, with AI bringing risks, rewards Jack HerschManaging Editor, US Distressedjack.hersch@pitchbook.com John Atkins Director, Managing Editor, USBondsjohn.atkins@pitchbook.com Marina LukatskyGlobal Head of Research, Credit& US Private Equitymarina.lukatsky@pitchbook.com Published on December 15, 2025 Leveraged Loan Outlook: Market set for modest growth, more M&A The US leveraged loan market is poised for a year of moderateexpansion in 2026 as market analysts project a transition fromheavy opportunistic activity toward net new-money deals drivenby escalating event-driven financing. A sampling of bank forecastsanticipates supportive fundamentals, a rebound in sponsor-driventransactions, and continued refinancing needs as key themesshaping the year ahead. Seethis story and the underlying Excel dataon thePitchBook platform. •LBO and M&A volume is expected to climb in 2026 on stablefundamentals and lower borrowing costs. •Refinancing activity will continue to dominate, supported by astable rate backdrop and a large 2028 maturity wall. •Dividend recapitalizations will moderate as acquisition volumegrows and sponsors shift their focus to exits. As 2025 winds down, total volume for the broadly syndicatedleveraged loan market stands at $439 billion (excluding repricings)as of Dec. 10, short of the $502 billion logged in 2024. Ananticipated rekindling of LBO and M&A activity failed to materializethis year, and instead borrowers flooded the market to refinanceor reprice loans and fund dividends. Repricing volume dropped to$496 billion from $757 billion in 2024, but that is still the second-highest annual total on record. According to LCD, leveraged loan maturities in 2026 and 2027 havedeclined to $59 billion as of Dec. 5, compared to $195 billion at theend of 2024. Maturities expand sharply in 2028, to $301 billion. Taken together,the amount of loan maturities over the next three years is$360 billion. The $142 billion of LBO/M&A volume is 32% of the total (excludingrepricings), both three-year highs but below volume and share levelsfrom 2015-2022. Meanwhile, the $273 billion of refinancings and dividendrecapitalizations is the second-highest total over the past 12 years,behind only the $342 billion in 2024. Refinancings alone totaled$193 billion, also the second-highest since 2013 behind 2024. Thisactivity hacked away at the near-term maturity wall. Spreads heading into year-end continued to hover at or near historiclows, including for B-minus-rated issuers at 354 bps for the quarterto Dec. 10, down from 397 bps in the fourth quarter of 2024. refinancings and repricings), which would mark a 55% increase.Refinancing will remain elevated at $325 billion, up 10% andsupported by maturities ballooning in 2028, while repricing activitywill fall sharply from 2025, by 45%, to $250 billion, although that iselevated by historical context. The forecast for LBO/M&A financing of $225 billion is nearly doublethe output in 2025. Among the factors supporting the uptick inissuance are “solid credit fundamentals, a more stable interest-ratebackdrop, deregulation tailwinds, and improved access to capital.”On top of that, dividend recaps will continue to play a role with $50billion forecasted for next year, while issuance for general corporatepurposes will be a record $25 billion, JPMorgan says, driven in partby AI and data-center buildout. Morgan Stanley expects leveraged loan issuance to grow by amodest 3% to $490 billion. In its forecast, refinancing activity dipsslightly to $210 billion, while new-money deals — including LBO,M&A, and GCP —rise to $280 billion, with LBO/M&A up 33%, to$210 billion. “Next year, we expect sponsor-backed acquisitionsto rebound as favorable macro and financing conditions are goodsigns for Alts to put money to work,” Morgan Stanley stated in aresearch report. Volume expectations Looking ahead to 2026, Barclays projects institutional loan supply(exclud