2026年展望报告：解读博弈：在不确定性中把握市场逻辑

THE INTERPRETATION GAME Investing sustainablyBehavioural finance Multi-asset portfolio allocationKey datesCryptocurrenciesExecutive summaryEquitiesBondsUS industrial complexPrivate marketsUS macroChina macroEurozone macroUK macro Contents 3457911131822253036404547ForewordThe interpretation gameUS:Much room for interpretationChina:China’s balancing actEurozone:Every journey starts with a first stepUK:Sailing into choppy watersBeyond the AI boom: Rebalancing portfolios for a more sustainable cycleDecoding the bond marketThe US government-industrial complexPrivate markets in a fragmentation eraAre cryptocurrencies coming of age?Investing in the Electrotech economyThe psychology behind the AI bubbleMulti-asset portfolio allocationKey dates Contributors: Julien Lafargue, CFA, Chief Market Strategist, London UKJudiyah Amirthanathar, Market Strategist, London UKPatrick Bielstein, Ph.D, CFA, Senior Quantitative Analyst,London UKLiam Crawford, CFA, Investment Strategist, London UKDorothée Deck, Head of Cross Asset Strategy, London UKAlexander Joshi, Head of Behavioural Finance, London UKIain Martin, Investment Writer, London UK Luke Mayberry, Investment Strategist, London UKDamian Payiatakis, Head of Sustainable & Impact Investing,London UKHussain Selani, Head of Investments India and Global IndiansIvelin Stankov, Investment Strategist, London UKNikola Vasiljevic, Ph.D., Head of Global Asset Allocation,Zurich SwitzerlandMichel Vernier, CFA, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, London UK Foreword Welcome to our “Outlook 2026”, the investment strategy update fromBarclays Private Bank. In the following chapters we look at the result of revamped trading relationshipsand volatile geopolitics on the biggest economies, and what anticipated US ratecuts imply for bonds and equities in 2026. However you put it, artificial intelligence is reshaping society and portfolios alike,as investors fish for the corporate winners of tomorrow. We consider the sectorsmost affected and at what stage fundamentals might reassert themselves. And beyond our in-depth asset class and financial market analysis, we discusswhat the redrawn partnership between US industries and the White House meansfor investors and if renewable power supply can meet the anticipated surge indemand for electricity. The next 12 months will be a challenging year for investors, whose resilience willonce again be put to the test. Encouragingly, our teams continue to see plenty ofopportunities to maximise returns and diversify risk in the pursuit of building portfoliosthat fulfil their long-term objectives. As always, we hope you enjoy the articles, and we thank you for entrusting uswith your investments. Jean-Damien Marie,Global Head of Investments, Private Bank and Wealth Management The interpretation game Despite a solid performance from equity and bond markets this year, persistently highgovernment debt levels and AI-concentrated US equity markets still lurk as warning signsfor 2026. Diversification and selective investing will be key. This article is technical in nature and may require somebackground knowledge and investing experience tounderstand the themes explored. EASY DOES IT The prospect of resilient growth but sticky inflation willmake central banks’ job harder. Still rates are, in our view,likely to come down – albeit modestly – as an easier monetarypolicy stance is required to offset macroeconomic andfiscal challenges. The unexpected twists of the last year have provided investorswith ample food for thought and upset the consensus morethan once. Will 2026 be any different? The transformative power of artificial intelligence (AI) hastaken centre stage, igniting both excitement and apprehensionabout its expansive reach. As we touch on in our separateAIOutlook 2026, the technology’s ability to enhance productivityand profitability across various industries keeps us optimisticabout the future. However, this technological revolutionpromises to be gradual and non-linear, possibly triggeringsignificant rotations. Geographically, the US remains investors’ north star, butwe expect other regions to shine in 2026. The eurozone inparticular could surprise positively. Similarly, the UK economycould finally move out of first gear once the uncertaintysurrounding November’s Autumn Budget has cleared. THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER After the reality check of ‘Liberation Day’ last April, investorswill have to embrace the “interpretation game” facingmarkets in 2026. As the growth and inflation mix remainsfinely balanced, each data point and social media post will besubject to interpretation. Expect market sentiment to swingrepeatedly from ’this is a new paradigm’ to ’the party is over’. CHALLENGES AHEAD Looking at the next few months, several challenges loom.Persistent high levels of government debt in developed nationscontinues to impede growth, necessitating a more harmonisedapproach between monetary and fiscal policies. In such context, risk management becomes