2026年高等教育展望报告：高等教育在不断变化的环境中的转型战略要务

Higher Ed’s Strategic Imperative forTransformation in a Shifting Landscape Executive Summary Higher education is entering a decade of structural change where volatility will be the norm, not the exception.Economic instability, demographic decline and the disruptive power of AI are converging into a defining question for The Market Reality Traditional student enrollment base has peaked. Beginning in 2026, institutions will largely face a sustained declinein traditional-aged undergraduates. Meanwhile, enrollment growth is concentrated in new markets: adult learners The impact will not be felt evenly across institutions. Some layers of immunity are built into the higher educationinfrastructure for flagship public institutions and highly selective private institutions with substantial endowments.The remaining institutions are more exposed to the shifts described in this summary and report. Institutions that The Value Imperative While the data proves the enduring wage premium of a college degree, public skepticism of higher education’svalue continues to deepen. Institutions cannot afford passive defense of the status quo. To win trust, institutions The Technology Shift Artificial Intelligence has redefined both how students search and how graduates work. AI-driven tools arealready guiding prospective students’ choices, often before a college has the chance to engage them. In today’s At the same time, AI is reshaping the skills required for long-term employability. Institutions that weave AI literacyinto programs, while doubling down on human skills like judgment, creativity and ethical reasoning, will produce Leadership Imperatives The message of this report is clear: status quo protectionism and incrementalism are a recipe for irrelevance. 01Portfolio– Invest in high-demand, career-oriented programs while sunsetting underperforming offerings. 02Positioning– Unify brand and enrollment strategies to speak with one clear voice to allModern LearnersAND meet the learner where they are, while reinforcing the three critical messaging components of cost, 03Culture– Instill a student-centric culture built on values and outcomes. Invest boldly to communicate valueand deliver on the promise of the long-term return on investment in higher education. A Defining Moment This is a once-in-a-generation leadership moment. Leaders who embrace the disruption as opportunity will not onlysafeguard institutional sustainability, but they will also redefine the role of higher education in the life of theModern EducationDynamics stands ready to partner with institutions who are prepared to act boldly and leaders whorecognize that meeting theModern Learnerwhere they are is not just an enrollment strategy, but the new mission of Key TakeawaysUnlocking the Levers of Key Takeaway 1An Unstable Economic and Employment Landscape Uncertainty and instability are the new constants in a global economy undergoing significant structural change. Thelabor market is defined by inconsistent and fluctuating indicators that make future trends difficult to predict. Whileoverall unemployment remains relatively low, this top-line number masks underlying weaknesses, including weak Amid this instability, a fundamental paradox hasemerged: a college education maintains a strong, undeniablecorrelation with higher employment rates, yet the public’s perception of its value is in a steep and steady decline.This misaligned narrative puts immense pressure on institutions to reclaim their story. In a marketplace now defined Key Takeaway 2A Radically Transformed Enrollment Environment The enrollment environment has not just evolved; it has been radically and permanently transformed. While fall2024 showed surface-level enrollment growth, this figure conceals faults in the foundation. The demographiccliff is no longer a future threat to be discussed in boardrooms; it is a present reality that is impacting recruitment Growth is now driven by non-traditional populations.Adult learners seeking to upskill in a volatile economy,ambitious dual-enrollment high school students accelerating their path to a degree and professionals returning Demand is shifting at the degree and programmatic levels.The continued enrollment growth in community collegesand certificate programs underscores the Modern Learner’s laser focus on career alignment, speed to completionand a tangible return on their educational investment. Meanwhile, programmatic growth is concentrated in career- Key Takeaway 3AI is An Unmistakable Force with Far-Reaching Implications The most potent accelerant of this transformation is the rapid integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI is not a newtool. The technology has been around for well over a decade. However, it is a disruptive force fundamentally rewiring Modern Learners have already adopted AI as a trusted tool for information gathering. Everything from studentsearch to retention is now impacted by AI in some way. This shift is