2026高等教育格局报告：变革格局下高等教育的战略要务

Higher Ed’s Strategic Imperative forTransformation in a Shifting Landscape Executive Summary Higher education is entering a decade of structural change where volatility will be the norm, not the exception.Economic instability, demographic decline and the disruptive power of AI are converging into a defining question forhigher education leaders:Will your institution shape the future, or be shaped by it? The Market Reality Traditional student enrollment base has peaked. Beginning in 2026, institutions will largely face a sustained declinein traditional-aged undergraduates. Meanwhile, enrollment growth is concentrated in new markets: adult learnersseeking rapid reskilling, high school students accelerating through dual enrollment and the millions of Americanswith “some college, no credential” who remain a significant scalable opportunity for growth. The impact will not be felt evenly across institutions. Some layers of immunity are built into the higher educationinfrastructure for flagship public institutions and highly selective private institutions with substantial endowments.The remaining institutions are more exposed to the shifts described in this summary and report. Institutions thatcling to historic student pipelines and insist on trying to hold onto the status quo will face contraction. Those thatpivot decisively will build a sustainable future for growth, based on serving theModern Learnerof today and thefuture. The Value Imperative While the data proves the enduring wage premium of a college degree, public skepticism of higher education’svalue continues to deepen. Institutions cannot afford passive defense of the status quo. To win trust, institutionsmust lead boldly with outcomes by publishing transparent data, strengthening employer partnerships and showingtangible career pathways in every program. This is not just marketing; it is a blueprint for a sustainable foundationand future growth. The Technology Shift Artificial Intelligence has redefined both how students search and how graduates work. AI-driven tools arealready guiding prospective students’ choices, often before a college has the chance to engage them. In today’sevolving search environment, an institution must deploy new strategies to build and maintain discoverability andcommunicate value, outcomes and brand in an online environment that now includes AI engines in addition to socialmedia and the traditional search experience. At the same time, AI is reshaping the skills required for long-term employability. Institutions that weave AI literacyinto programs, while doubling down on human skills like judgment, creativity and ethical reasoning, will producegraduates who thrive in a future where people and machines work side by side. Leadership Imperatives The message of this report is clear: status quo protectionism and incrementalism are a recipe for irrelevance.Leaders must drive transformation across three dimensions: 01Portfolio– Invest in high-demand, career-oriented programs while sunsetting underperforming offerings.02Positioning– Unify brand and enrollment strategies to speak with one clear voice to allModern LearnersAND meet the learner where they are, while reinforcing the three critical messaging components of cost,convenience and career outcomes.03Culture– Instill a student-centric culture built on values and outcomes. Invest boldly to communicate valueand deliver on the promise of the long-term return on investment in higher education. A Defining Moment This is a once-in-a-generation leadership moment. Leaders who embrace the disruption as opportunity will not onlysafeguard institutional sustainability, but they will also redefine the role of higher education in the life of theModernLearner. Those who hesitate or fail to act decisively risk falling behind in a marketplace that is now unforgiving. EducationDynamics stands ready to partner with institutions who are prepared to act boldly and leaders whorecognize that meeting theModern Learnerwhere they are is not just an enrollment strategy, but the new mission ofhigher education itself. Key TakeawaysUnlocking the Levers ofGrowth Key Takeaway 1An Unstable Economic and Employment Landscape Uncertainty and instability are the new constants in a global economy undergoing significant structural change. Thelabor market is defined by inconsistent and fluctuating indicators that make future trends difficult to predict. Whileoverall unemployment remains relatively low, this top-line number masks underlying weaknesses, including weakjob creation and lower employee quit rates, which signal widespread economic anxiety and a workforce hesitant tomake bold career moves. This creates a challenging environment where the traditional promise of a degree needs tobe more compelling than ever. Amid this instability, a fundamental paradox hasemerged: a college education maintains a strong, undeniablecorrelation with higher employment rates, yet the public’s perception of its valu