欧洲私人信贷监测（英）2025

November 2025 Key Takeaways •Direct lending deal activity has picked up going into year-end–the last three months have featured 38 deals and an estimated €9.6billion in volume, close to Q2 levels, aided by two large transactions –the £1.1 billion multicurrency loan for the take-private of JTC and a €2billion refinancing for Funecap.•Lenders focused on the lower mid-market space in 2025 –Theproportion of deals with estimated size between €100-349 million in2025 is 54%, the largest since LCD started tracking this data. Andnearly 75% of deals in 2025 were smaller than €500 million. Notably,larger deals do persist — the percentage in the highest bucket (€1 •2025 will be a record year– November data shows that totalestimated volume and deal flow has already surpassed full-year 2024 •Average spreads have tightened, and there has also been acompression relative to BSL– average spreads in all direct lendingtransactions are now 100 bps tighter than they were in 2020, and the •Refinancing and recap activity has boosted overall volume asacquisition activity has slowed– acquisition-related funding hasfallen to €19.5 billion from €23.8 billion, while refis and recaps totaldifference between average LBO spreads in the BSL and direct •DL refinancing of BSL fell even further in the last three months –refinancing between the broadly syndicated loan (BSL) and the directlending (DL) markets began to even out in the second half of 2025.LCD’s data shows that in Q3 the flow became roughly similar. In themost recent three-month period of 2025, refinancing flows in bothmarkets declined compared to Q3. The drop in the volume of BSL •Stressed situations are on the rise– LCD has counted ninesituations where lenders have taken the keys in the DL market in2025 thus far, compared to an average of less than two annually Direct Lending Volume &Counts Direct lending deal activity has picked up going into year-end … …while yearly activity and estimated volume has now surpassed the 2024 record Refinancing and recap activity has boosted overall volume as acquisition activity has slowed Sponsor-backed direct lending activity and estimated volume also rose in the last 3 months… …and have outpaced full-year 2024 already Sponsored recaps showed the highest 3-month total when compared to quarterly levels since LCD records began Estimated buyout volume is up slightly in the last 3 months, but remains subdued YTD LBO activity is neck-in-neck with the same period in 2024 Spreads Average direct lending spreads have tightened by over 100 bps since 2022 The gap between broadly syndicated and direct lending spreads is narrowing Over a third of buyouts are priced at under 500 bps in 2025, compared to none in 2023-2024 The difference between average LBO spreads in the BSL and direct lending markets has also compressed by over 100 bps Broadly Syndicated vs.Direct Lending Market While the last three months recorded twice as many buyouts in the direct lending market compared to the broadly syndicated market… … the volume of syndicated buyouts was over double the estimated amount funded by direct lenders The difference between the number of direct-lending and BSL sponsor-backed transactions has narrowed towards the end of 2025 Despite slowing down, PE-backed BSL volume still surpasses that of the direct lending market Direct lending estimated volume has grown steadily since LCD began tracking it, while BSL volumes are more volatile Direct lending supports a record total of European leveraged finance deals since LCD started tracking the data Direct lending volume refinancing BSL fell even further in the last three months, after a surge in direct lending during Q2 volatility Market Characteristics The quarterly average of non-sponsored transactions in 2025 is the highest since 2022 On a YTD basis, the share of non-sponsored deals stays close to the five-year average Recaps have surged – at 11% of deal count, they account for the greatest share since LCD began tracking Acquisition-related and recap deals make up the largest proportions of non-sponsored deals, while refi activity has fallen substantially A higher number of refinancings and recaps took away from the dominant share of acquisition-related sponsored deals in 2025 France is on track for the highest share of the European direct lending market for the first time since LCD’s records began French companies also dominate sponsored deal activity in 2025 Half of all non-sponsored transactions came from UK-based companies Technology, Professional & Business Services and Healthcare companies make up over half of all deals in European direct lending The gap in leverage for BSL and direct lending sponsored transactions has narrowed compared to the year prior Almost three-quarters of private credit deals – with known deal size – in 2025 were under €500 million The number of debt-for-equity swaps and other distressed situations is on the rise in the direct lending market D