欧洲私人信贷监测（英）2025

Private CreditMonitor November 2025 Key Takeaways •Direct lending deal activity has picked up going into year-end–the last three months have featured 38 deals and an estimated €9.6billion in volume, close to Q2 levels, aided by two large transactions –the £1.1 billion multicurrency loan for the take-private of JTC and a €2billion refinancing for Funecap. •Lenders focused on the lower mid-market space in 2025 –Theproportion of deals with estimated size between €100-349 million in2025 is 54%, the largest since LCD started tracking this data. Andnearly 75% of deals in 2025 were smaller than €500 million. Notably,larger deals do persist — the percentage in the highest bucket (€1billion or more) has fallen to 14% from 21% in the year prior, but it isstill higher than the annual percentages from 2020-2023. •2025 will be a record year– November data shows that totalestimated volume and deal flow has already surpassed full-year 2024levels – at €38.7 billion and 143 deals, respectively. •Average spreads have tightened, and there has also been acompression relative to BSL– average spreads in all direct lendingtransactions are now 100 bps tighter than they were in 2020, and thedifference between average LBO spreads in the BSL and directlending markets has also compressed by over 100 bps in that timeframe. •Refinancing and recap activity has boosted overall volume asacquisition activity has slowed– acquisition-related funding hasfallen to €19.5 billion from €23.8 billion, while refis and recaps total€18.1 billion in 2025 so far, compared to €14.2 billion in 2024. •DL refinancing of BSL fell even further in the last three months –refinancing between the broadly syndicated loan (BSL) and the directlending (DL) markets began to even out in the second half of 2025.LCD’s data shows that in Q3 the flow became roughly similar. In themost recent three-month period of 2025, refinancing flows in bothmarkets declined compared to Q3. The drop in the volume of BSLfacilities refinanced by direct lenders was substantial, to only €380million from €4.2 billion in Q2 when DL provided a surge ofrefinancing to BSL borrowers during volatile markets. •Stressed situations are on the rise– LCD has counted ninesituations where lenders have taken the keys in the DL market in2025 thus far, compared to an average of less than two annuallybetween 2018-2024. Direct Lending Volume &Counts Direct lending deal activity has picked up going into year-end … …while yearly activity and estimated volume has now surpassed the 2024 record Refinancing and recap activity has boosted overall volume as acquisition activity has slowed Sponsor-backed direct lending activity and estimated volume also rose in the last 3 months… Direct lending deal count and estimated volume, sponsor-backed borrowers (€B) …and have outpaced full-year 2024 already Direct lending deal count and estimated volume, sponsor-backed borrowers (€B) Sponsored recaps showed the highest 3-month total when compared to quarterly levels since LCD records began Estimated buyout volume is up slightly in the last 3 months, but remains subdued YTD LBO activity is neck-in-neck with the same period in 2024 Spreads Average direct lending spreads have tightened by over 100 bps since 2022 The gap between broadly syndicated and direct lending spreads is narrowing Over a third of buyouts are priced at under 500 bps in 2025, compared to none in 2023-2024 New-issue spread distribution of LBOs financed in the direct lending market The difference between average LBO spreads in the BSL and direct lending markets has also compressed by over 100 bps Spread of LBOs financed in BSL (all borrowers) vs direct lending market Broadly Syndicated vs.Direct Lending Market While the last three months recorded twice as many buyouts in the direct lending market compared to the broadly syndicated market… … the volume of syndicated buyouts was over double the estimated amount funded by direct lenders The difference between the number of direct-lending and BSL sponsor-backed transactions has narrowed towards the end of 2025 Despite slowing down, PE-backed BSL volume still surpasses that of the direct lending market New-issue sponsor-backed volume for loans financed in BSL vs private credit market (€B) Direct lending estimated volume has grown steadily since LCD began tracking it, while BSL volumes are more volatile Direct lending supports a record total of European leveraged finance deals since LCD started tracking the data Direct lending volume refinancing BSL fell even further in the last three months, after a surge in direct lending during Q2 volatility Market Characteristics The quarterly average of non-sponsored transactions in 2025 is the highest since 2022 Share of European private credit deals by ownership type, by deal count On a YTD basis, the share of non-sponsored deals stays close to the five-year average Share of European private credit deals by ownership type, by deal count R