美国私人信用监测（英）

US Private CreditMonitor October 2025 Key Takeaways •Direct lending deal volume stabilizes–Greater visibility into trade policy and ratetrajectories is helping restore new issue volumes to a more typical pace. Directlending activity saw a modest uptick as the fourth quarter got underway. LCD tracked$63 billion across 211 deals in the three months to Oct. 31, an improvement over3Q25 levels ($60 billion / 201 deals). Although the year-to-date pace trails 2024 byabout 15% in terms of both volume and count, market sentiment is improving—with refinancing or a recapitalization, slightly higher than the 25% share for January through September period. With spreads compressing across both liquid and privatecredit markets so far this year, borrowers are seizing the opportunity to lower theircost of debt. For example, Sixth Street BDC reported that 75% of repayments were •Give-and-take–LCD recorded $5.8 billion in direct lending loans refinanced into thebroadly syndicated market during the three months ended October 31, down from $10.2 billion in the prior quarter, which was elevated by the largeFinastra •M&A outlook–Earnings calls from BDCs reporting third-quarter results indicate that M&A activity continues to strengthen, adding to improved market sentiment thatbegan late in the second quarter. More stable financial markets and renewed sponsorconfidence have supported higher transaction volumes, while corporate managementteams are increasingly refocusing on long-term strategic growth initiatives. Forinstance, Ares reported a record $3 billion backlog as of October 23, 2025, withapproximately half of third-quarter originations tied to M&A-related deals and about60% coming from new borrowers, signaling less reliance on deal activity originating transaction. Year to date, approximately $29 billion has shifted from direct lenders tothe syndicated market—roughly offset by a similar volume moving in the oppositedirection. In October, for instance,Ping Identityissued a $1.8 billion term loan B torefinance private debt and fund a dividend; at the end of June, the company was heldby at least a dozen BDCs. The existing private loan due October 2029 priced at •Credit spreads remain compressed but steady–Direct lending spreads haveremained relatively stable in recent months, although pricing dispersion hasnarrowed, with mostunitrancheloans clustering in the SOFR +450–500 bps range. •Repayments–Lenders report that repayment activity remains strong, supported by amore active market environment. LCD data shows that roughly 30% of new issue Direct Lending Volume &Counts Direct lending activity shows a modest uptick as the fourth quarter begins. 2025 issuance is running 15% behind the 2024 pace PE-backed direct lending deal count held steady as volume inched up Deal count trails 2024 by 25% thanks to slower 2Q and 3Q Refinancings and recapitalizations remained an active part of the market LBO count fell to the lowest level in two years 2025 LBO volume slightly ahead of last year but deal count lags Healthcare and Technology sectors expanded their share of deal activity, while Services saw a pullback vs 2024 M&A activity remains light; spreads tighten amid competition for paper Spreads compress amid competition for quality deals, with half the market below 500 bps so far in 2025 The difference in BSL and direct lending spreads has compressed amid competition for larger deals LBO cost of debt contracts across both private and liquid credit markets Spread of LBOs financed in BSL (all borrowers) vs direct lending market Broadly Syndicated vs.Direct Lending Market While BSL-financed LBO counts have been stable, direct lending has experienced a slowdown As BSL and direct lending volumes converge Weakness in the secondary syndicated loan market during October curtailed opportunistic activity Compressing overall BSL volume in the last three months Business DevelopmentCompanies (BDCs) BDC portfolios signal further spread compression Nearly 30% of unitranche facilities held by BDCs had spreads under S+500 as of June 30, 2025, up from 17% at the end of 2024 While first-lien spreads were evenly balanced between sub-500 bps and 600+ bps at the end of 2024, by June 2025, tighter-pricedloanshad become far more prevalent within BDC holdings Commercial Services and Software lead among BDC holdings by sector Direct Lending AUM,Private Debt Capital Raised, Direct lending AUM rises steadily Private debt fundraising is slightly off last year’s pace Issuance of middle market and private credit CLOs remains robust BSL & Direct LendingTakeouts In a competitive tug-of-war for deals, direct lenders captured roughly $29B from the BSL market this year—offset by an equivalent flowin the opposite direction Borrowers refinancing their direct lending deals in the broadly syndicated markets find attractive pricing… …while those leaving the BSL space find flexibility, certainty of execution and other benefits, competitive