美国私人信用监测

USPrivate CreditMonitor September 2025 Key Takeaways BDCs had spreads under S+500 as of June 30, 2025, up from 17% at the end of2024. Similarly, while first-lien spreads were evenly balanced between sub-500 bpsand 600+ bps at the end of 2024, by June 2025, tighter-priced loans had become farmore prevalent within BDC holdings. •Direct lending deal volume declines–Although the immediate turbulence fromtariffs and second-quarter volatility has subsided, its ripple effects persisted into Q3.Private credit–financed deal activity slowed, with LCD tracking $56.3 billion across200 deals—the lowest levels for both metrics since Q1 2024. As of Sept. 30, dealcount and volume were down roughly 13% year over year, leaving direct lendingactivity behind 2024’s pace. While a few large buyouts buoyed results in the first half,Q3 was notably subdued on the megadeal front, despite a more optimistic toneamong market participants. •Battle for large deals–In a competitive tug-of-war for deal flow, direct lenderscaptured roughly $26 billion from the broadly syndicated loan market this year—offsetby a comparable flow in the other direction. Borrowers have been drawn to historicallytight spreads and favorabletechnicalsin the syndicated loan space, where new-issueB-minus rated spreads have tightened to their lowest levels since the Global FinancialCrisis. Syndicated lenders have moved quickly to regain lost ground in the upper endof the market, particularly LBOs over $1 billion. Syndicated lenders financed 63% ofsuch deals year-to-date, up from 51% in 2024 and 39% in 2023, reclaimingmeaningful market share from direct lenders. •Technical imbalance worsens–With fewer deals supporting buyouts and M&A, theimbalance between demand for private credit and available supply has deepened inrecent months. This shift was reflected in LCD’s third-quarter private credit survey,where respondents cited asset sourcing as their leading concern—echoing sentimentlast seen in the Q1 survey, prior to the tariff announcements. In contrast, stress anddefault risk, which dominated Q2 concerns, have since taken a backseat. •Spread compression persists–These factors collectively are helping to keepdownward pressure on spreads and have created borrower-friendly market conditionsas private credit lenders compete with the syndicated loan market. Market participantssay S+450 and S+475 spreads are now common. Among buyout financings, nearlyhalf of private credit loans priced below S+500, according to LCD data. •Spread tightening accelerates across BDC portfolios–A recurring complaintacross 2Q25 BDC earnings calls has been continued spread tightening, driven byintensifying competition from traditional bank lenders for larger deals and lacklusterbuyout deal flow. LCD data shows that nearly 30% ofunitranchefacilities held by Direct Lending Volume &Counts Direct lending activity was down in 3Q25 as large LBOs remain scarce Direct lending deal count and estimated volume(quarterly) ($B) 2025 issuance is running 13% behind the 2024 pace Direct lending deal count and estimated volume (annual) ($B) Direct lending to PE-backed companies slowed to its lowest levels of the year in 3Q25, across both volume and number of deals The gap with 2024 continues to widen Direct lending deal count and estimated volume, sponsor-backed borrowers(annual) ($B) Refinancings and recapitalizations remained an active part of the market in Q3 A lull in mega-sized financings led to a decline in LBO volume in 3Q25 2025 LBO volume slightly ahead of last year but deal count lags Direct lendingcount and estimated volume of deals financing LBOs(annual) ($B) Healthcare and Tech sectors account for nearly 40% of this year’s activity New-issuedirectlending top 10 sectors–share by deal count Spreads M&A activity remains light; spreads tighten amid competition for paper New-issue spread of acquisition-related deals, PE-backed borrowers Spreads compress amid competition for quality deals, with nearly half below 500 bps so far in 2025 New-issue spread distribution of LBOs financed in direct lending market The difference in BSL and direct lending spreads has compressed amid competition for larger deals Spread of LBOs financed in BSL (B-minus borrowers) vs direct lending market LBO cost of debt contracts across both private and liquid credit markets Spread of LBOs financed in BSL (all borrowers) vs direct lending market Broadly Syndicated vs.Direct Lending Market LBO activity remains weaker year-over-year across both the BSL and DL markets As BSL and direct lending volumes converge Renewed opportunistic dealmaking is driving momentum in BSL-sponsored transactions A wave of refinancings and dividend recaps has propelled BSL volume higher in Q3 Business DevelopmentCompanies (BDCs) BDC portfolios signal further spread compression Nearly 30% of unitranche facilities held by BDCs had spreads under S+500 as of June 30, 2025, up from 17% at the end of 2024 While first-lien spr