美国私人信贷监测

USPrivate CreditMonitor July 2025 Key Takeaways below S+500—more than double the share seen in 2024. •PE-backed direct lending volume slows,lagging behind2024 pace–Directlending activity tied to private equity continues to trail 2024’s pace due to a slowersecond quarter. As of July 31, deal count is down 26% year-over-year, with totalvolume falling 20%. While the first half of the year saw a handful of large buyouts thathelped prop up overall volume, July was notably quieter on the megadeal front. Oneof the more significant transactions to close in July was the $1.85 billion debt packagesupporting the take-private acquisition of Triumph Group. The borrower, familiar to theleveraged finance market, had previously tapped the high-yield bond market beforeturning to private debt solutions for this deal. •Mixed non-accruals–While BDCs have broadly stated that their exposure to tariff-impacted companies is low, there was disruption enough to contribute to slight upticksin non-accruals in the quarter. There were also examples of stress at portfoliocompanies that was directly related to tariffs. •Battle for large deals–Private credit and the broadly syndicated loan market remainin active competition for deal flow, with the BSL market gaining the upper hand inrecent months. Borrowers have been drawn to historically tight spreads and favorabletechnical conditions in the syndicated space. Between May and July, 11 issuersrefinanced direct loans into broadly syndicated facilities, removing approximately $14billion from private credit portfolios—the largest quarterly total on record. Thissurpasses the previous peak of $11.7 billion set in Q1 2024. A significant share of thisvolume stemmed from four large deals: Finastra, KnowBe4, Alera andTrucordia. Thatsaid, deal flow between the two markets is not entirely one-directional. At least sixborrowers have moved in the opposite direction this year, refinancing roughly $5billion of existing syndicated debt into direct lending solutions—marking the lowestquarterly total since Q1 2024. •BDC watch–with Q2 2025 earnings rolling in, private credit executives have adoptedincreasingly optimistic language to describe deal pipelines and incoming inquiries,suggesting stronger deal volumes going forward. FS KKR Capital's Dan Pietrzak saidhis firm has reviewed more deals in the past quarter than in the prior eight quarters(https://content.pitchbook.com/share/quick-link/profile/66e9927f-5851-421a-9872-d8ef5f84ceef?hash=a7345a5d32c92d3feb64886ba0f3115d9128e4c16e869610b98bef51e877d5c0), and Blackstone Secured Lending Fund's Brad Marshall said he thinksAugust will probably be the firm’s busiest month for transactions since 2021. •Spread compression–A recurring theme across BDC earnings calls has beencontinued spread tightening, driven by intensifying competition from traditional banklenders for larger deals. This dynamic has pressured private credit providers toreduce pricingin order toremain competitive. Churchill Asset Management CEO KenKencel(link) noted that spreads have stabilized in the 450–475 basis pointrange, butcould compress by another 25 basis points in the near-term. Supporting this trend,LCD data shows that 43% of LBO financings by direct lenders this year have priced •Sponsors turn to recaps as exits stall–The share of PE-backed deals tied torefinancing and recapitalizations stood at 26% in the last three months, down from30% in the second quarter, but above 2024 average levels. LCD tracked at least adozen recapitalizations between May and July, on par with the overall pace in the firsthalf of 2025. This activity underscores sponsors’ continued pursuit of alternativeavenues for capital returns, as traditional exit strategies remain challenged by limitedliquidity and persistent valuation uncertainty. Direct Lending Volume &Counts Direct lending deal activity stays relatively flat in the last three months Direct lending deal count and estimated volume(quarterly) ($B) 2025 issuance is running behind the 2024 pace Direct lending deal count and estimated volume (annual) ($B) Private equity transaction volume edges slightly lower in the last three months although deal count stays on par with 2Q25 Sponsor-backed deal volume slows and gap widens vs 2024 pace Direct lending deal count and estimated volume, sponsor-backed borrowers(annual) ($B) Refinancings and recaps remain in play so far in Q3 Buyout activity cools in recent months 2025 LBO volume slightly ahead of last year but deal count lags Direct lendingcount and estimated volume of deals financing LBOs(annual) ($B) Healthcare and Tech sectors account for nearly 40% of this year’s activity New-issuedirectlending top 10 sectors–share by deal count Spreads M&A activity remains light; spreads tighten amid competition for paper New-issue spread of acquisition-related deals, PE-backed borrowers Spreads compress amid competition for quality deals, with almost half at < 500 bps New-issue spread distribution of