2026年欧洲展望：贸易政策转向考验经济韧性

October 2025 Trade policy shifts tests resilience Intelligencethat moves EIU, part of The Economist Group,provides a forward-looking perspectiveon the global agenda. With over 75years of expertise, it delivers political,economic and policy forecasts for200 countries. EIU’s insights, backedby a network of 400 analysts, helpfinancial institutions, governments Our solutions Operational Risk Country Analysis Understand the political, policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the globaldynamics that affect your organisation, enabling you Plan effectively with EIU’s expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisablerisk matrices, our service provides you with the toolsneeded to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks to Speaker Bureau Financial Risk Gain unparalleled insights into the global financiallandscape. Combining EIU’s market-leading dataand country expertise, our rigorous risk-modellingframework enables you to accurately identify risks to Strengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIU’s experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions, or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political, Contact us for more information The full analysis in this report is available through our Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features, please contact us London Hong Kong New York Economist Intelligence900 Third Avenue, 16th FloorNew York Economist IntelligenceThe Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street Economist Intelligence1301 Cityplaza Four12 Taikoo Wan Road Tel:+44 (0)20 7576 8000E-mail:london@eiu.com Tel:+1 212 541 0500E-mail:americas@eiu.com Tel:+ 852 2585 3888E-mail:asia@eiu.com Gurgaon Dubai Economist Intelligence9th FloorInfinity Tower ADLF Cyber City Economist IntelligencePO Box No - 450056Office No - 1301AAurora TowerDubai Media City Tel:+971 4 4463 147E-mail:mea@eiu.com Tel:+91 124 6409486E-mail:asia@eiu.com Contents What to watch in 2026Key risks56 What to watch in 2026 Slowing globalgrowth, fiscal strainsand European security •Slowing global growth amid US tariffs will weigh on economic activityin Europe in 2026. The US will become a less important trade partner,new free trade agreements will make headlines and frictions with •Anti-immigrant populist parties will make the political weather inEurope’s biggest economies. Governments will struggle to reduceheavy debt loads amid public demands for fiscal largesse. Bond •Europe’s efforts to back Ukraine against Russia will step up, anddefence spending and cooperation will rise sharply. The impact ongrowth, investment and strategic autonomy will be modest in 2026, Key risks Slowing globalgrowth amid new UStariffs will weigh onEurope’s economic Highly uncertain US trade policyresulted in a surge in front-loadedEuropean export growth beforetariffs came into effect, followedby a crash in late 2025. Exporttrends will adjust to a new normalin 2026, with permanently lowerexports to the US. New free-trade Meanwhile, Chinese goods that thetariffs have priced out of the US arebeing redirected to new markets,including Europe. These will intensifycompetitive pressures, undercuttingsome producers, and could lead tonew EU tariffs on China. However,consumers will benefit from cheaper What to watch Most exposed to US tariffs are Switzerland (with 39% “reciprocal”tariffs), Germany (via car exports), Ireland and the Nordics (via The EU has trade deals with markets making up 20% of global GDP Deals are being adopted or negotiated with a further 11% as US tariff fears drive progress *Negotiations have finished, but no part of the agreement is in place yet.Copyright © The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025. All rights reserved. Anti-immigrantpopulist parties willconsolidate theirgains in Europe’s Far-right or populist parties alreadyplay a role in government in tencountries in Europe. They are inopposition but leading polls inFrance, Germany and the UK, withimmigration a hot-button issue andcost-of-living strains dissipatingonly slowly. In 2026 they will raise The challenge for the French andBritish governments is how to handlelarge fiscal deficits, heavy debtloads and rising financing costs inthis context. Fiscal policy decisionswill be fraught, since cuttingspending would be unpopular andeasily exploited by populist parties.Higher taxes are likely. For Germany, What to watch UK local elections in May, the Swedish general election in September,German state elections in September and the French presidential Key opportunities The drive towardsEuropean strategicautonomy will gainpace as the war in A surge in investment is pumpingup defence stocks in Europe,facilitated by new EU funds, a fiscalU-turn in Germany and effortsto prioritise procurement withinEurope. Large sums will also gointo German infrastructure, whichtypically has a large fiscal multiplierand creates spillover effects for and capabil