SpaceX更新：IPO揭示了什么以及下一步需要关注什么

What the IPOReveals and What to Dissecting the valuation andestablishing a credibility rubric to LATE-STAGE COMPANY RESEARCHSpaceX Update: What the Institutional Research Group IPO Reveals and What toWatch For Next Franco GrandaSenior Research Analyst,Late-Stage Research pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on June 17, 2026 Dissecting the valuation and establishing acredibility rubric to evaluate post-IPO performance Contents PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. This is the final note of our recent series on SpaceX. With the company now public,the information asymmetry that defined it as a private entity—the gap our coverageworked to bridge—largely closes; the market will price it from here. SpaceX was theinaugural subject of a broader effort to bring institutional research rigor to the late-stage private markets, where the most consequential companies increasingly stayprivate longer and reshape their industries well before retail and most institutional Our SpaceX series includesSpaceX Initiation Report,Why SpaceX’s Starship Needsa Big Splash Before Its $75 Billion IPO,SpaceX x Cursor: $60 Billion More Reasons toQuestion the AI Thesis, andSpaceX Update: Starlink Prints, AI Burns—A Dissection Key takeaways •The market is paying for an AI premium on a connectivity core. We value SpaceX’slaunch-plus-connectivity business at roughly $1.5 trillion, the 90th percentile of ourgrowth-adjusted peer set on the strength of connectivity’s 63% EBITDA marginsand near-total share of free cash flow. The approximately $1 trillion gap to the •The AI premium is real but fragile. The Anthropic and Google compute deals run atapproximately $26 billion annualized, with run-rate upside toward $60 billion on fulllease-up. But the contracts are terminable on 90 days’ notice, and the only durablemoat in AI infrastructure today is owning capacity in a capacity-constrained •SpaceX does what it says, but rarely when it says. Across 51 tracked commitments,66% were eventually delivered but only 17% on time, with an average slip of2.2 years. Hardware delivery is nearly certain but timelines are not. We advise •Expect Tesla-like volatility, amplified. A 4.2% initial float and a roughly 30%retail allocation set up 20% to 30% swings on catalysts. The stock will tradeon milestones, not quarterly financials, compressing the distance between a •Supply, not earnings, governs the first 18 months. Eligible shares climb from about4% at listing to almost 40% by day 180, then jump to 98% when Musk’s roughly49-point stake unlocks in a single cliff near June 13, 2027. Passive demand offsetsonly part of this. We estimate that index-related buying absorbs almost 8.7% of •Watch the accounting flip and the refueling gate. Over $15 billion of Starshipcosts are expensed to R&D today; commercial payload delivery, which weexpect in early 2027, reclassifies roughly $3 billion to operating income onaccounting alone, a step-up the market may miss. Orbital refueling is the binary Closing the valuation loop: What the market is paying for In our MarchSpaceX Initiation Report, our thesis was that the valuation debate wouldbe won on framing and the multiple that investors were willing to assign to it, while theunderlying business would only shift gradually over the coming years. We were rightabout the framing and wrong about the pace. On our 2026 estimates, AI infrastructureis now the largest of SpaceX’s three main businesses by revenue, a shift that arrived far The market priced that new entity above our range: $135 per share, a $1.78 trillionvaluation, before closing its second session at $192.50 for an enterprise value (EV)above $2.5 trillion. The question for this final note is what the market is buying in thecompany that actually went public, and how much of the price rests on fundamentals we To answer it, we re-ran our valuation architecture with updated 2026 segment estimatesand the inclusion of xAI across AI infrastructure and social media. We forecast total2026 revenue of $37.5 billion: space at $5 billion (up 22% YoY), connectivity at $14.5billion (up 27% YoY), AI infrastructure at $16.3 billion (fueled by compute agreements A defensible core and an AI premium.We continue to value SpaceX’s core business,launch plus connectivity, at roughly $1.5 trillion, and we place it at the 90th percentileof our growth-adjusted peer set rather than the median. We do so deliberatelyon the basis that connectivity generated 61% of 2025 revenue, virtually all of thecompany’s free cash flow, and a 63% segment-adjusted EBITDA margin that exceedsevery telecom and satellite peer we track and approaches enterprise software. We want to be precise about what that premium rests on, because it is neither vapornor a sure thing. It is backed by real contracted revenue: The Anthropic and Googlecompute deals run at roughly $26 bill