四人桌？五月份全方位服务客流量数据揭示了什么

Equity ResearchJune 12, 2025 USA | Restaurants Table for Four? What May Full Service FootTraffic Data Tells Us Placer Traffic by Category (QoQ & MoM)Please note this data should serve as a directional indicator, interpreted as relativeperformance among brands/categories, anddoes not indicate absolute performance Full Service foot traffic in May improved m/m for most categories incl CasualDining +180bps, Steak +530bps, Breakfast +240bps, Italian +150bps, andUpscale +120bps, while Bar & Grill ~flat and Fine Dining -200bps. Note BlackBox showed CD traffic -80bps m/m in May (but ended 5/25 vs 5/31 for Placer),and other categories lower too. Implied 2Qtd vs 1Q improved for all categories,incl. Casual Dining +370bps, and nearly all brands better m/m in May, led byPLAY. Nearly all Full Service brands better in May and 2Q-to-date.Comparing May to April, all but 2brands improved m/m: Applebee's and Chili's - with the latter moderating from extremely strongtrends but still at very high absolute levels, most likely, and most brands improved >100bps. Somedivergence relative to Black Box which showed a -80bps decline in May, but we note some mismatchin the period vs calendar month end in Placer results with overall 2Qtd still better sequentially. We'dflag Dave & Buster's and Main Event (PLAY), which saw gains of +770bps and +640bps m/m inMay, corroborating commentary earlier in the week from mgmt of improving trends through themonth and in June. We are also encouraged by momentum building at CAKE (+440bps m/m inMay, 2Qtd up +230bps vs 1Q) and BJRI (+410bps m/m in May, 2Qtd up +210bps vs 1Q), as well asFWRG (+380bps m/m in May, 2Qtd up +540bps vs 1Q). Despite relatively softer m/m performancesin May, Applebee's (+810bps) and DENN (+750bps) still lead the group in 2Qtd vs 1Q trends, whileRRGB (-200bps) and Chili's (-210bps) lag. Andy Barish * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1524 | abarish@jefferies.com Alexander Slagle, CFA * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1508 | aslagle@jefferies.com Marshall Pittman * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1467 | mpittman@jefferies.com Ivan Yu * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1441 | iyu@jefferies.com Full Service Monthly & Quarterly Same-Store Traffic by Category Please note this data should serve as a directional indicator, interpreted as relative performance among brands/categories, and doesnot indicate absolute performance Full Service Monthly Traffic by Company & Brand Please note this data should serve as a directional indicator, interpreted as relative performance among brands/categories, and does not indicate absolute performance. Due to limitations, we are unableto publish an extended monthly history of brand-level performance in the tables below, but are able to do so in the charts on the following pages. Full Service Quarterly Traffic by Company & Brand Please note this data should serve as a directional indicator, interpreted as relative performance among brands/categories, and does not indicate absolute performance. Due to limitations, we are unableto publish an extended quarterly history of brand-level performance in the tables below. Appendix: Brands by Category Casual Dining:Lazy Dog Restaurant & Bar, Applebee's, BJ's Restaurant and Brewhouse, Bubba's 33, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, The Cheesecake Factory, Bahama Breeze,Carrabba's Italian Grill, Maggiano's Little Italy, North Italia, Olive Garden, Chuy's, First Watch, LongHorn Steakhouse, Outback Steakhouse, Texas Roadhouse, Kura Revolving Sushi Bar, Chili's Grill & Bar. Bar & Grill:Hooters, Applebee's, BJ's Restaurant and Brewhouse, Bubba's 33, Buffalo Wild Wings, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Lazy Dog Restaurant & Bar, O'Charley's, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, RubyTuesday, TGI Fridays, The Cheesecake Factory, Bahama Breeze, P.F. Chang's, Chili's Grill & Bar Steakhouse:LongHorn Steakhouse, Outback Steakhouse, Sizzler, Texas Roadhouse Italian:California Pizza Kitchen, Buca di Beppo Italian Restaurant, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Maggiano's Little Italy, North Italia, Olive Garden, Postino, Romano's Macaroni Grill Upscale:Yard House, Fogo de Chao, True Food Kitchen, Bonefish Grill, Kona Grill Breakfast:Black Bear Diner, Bob Evans Restaurant, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Denny's, Waffle House, First Watch Fine Dining:The Capital Grille, Seasons 52, Mastro's, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, Ruth's Chris Steak House, Fogo de Chao Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Andy Barish, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or