2026年6月29日 行业研究/行业周报 投资要点 动态数据跟踪 动力煤:市场交投冷清,煤价下行。动力煤市场承压下行,非电行业需求平淡,短期缺乏一定支撑。截至6月26日,环渤海动力煤现货参考价852元/吨,周变化-1.27%;秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价835元/吨,周变化-3.24%。截至6月27日,环渤海九港煤炭库存2627万吨,周变化-6.77%。 冶金煤:焦煤价格高位震荡。炼焦煤价格震荡,受安监持续供应偏紧,优质主焦煤结构性紧缺。截至6月26日,京唐港主焦煤库提价2200元/吨,周持平;京唐港1/3焦煤库提价1650元/吨,周持平;日照港喷吹煤1320元/吨,周变化-0.38%;澳大利亚峰景矿硬焦煤现货价265.5美元/吨,周变化-0.56%。截至6月26日,国内独立焦化厂、247家样本钢厂炼焦煤总库存分别885.57万吨和792.56万吨,周变化分别-2.15%、-0.37%;喷吹煤库存442.02万吨,周变化+0.58%。247家样本钢厂高炉开工率84.43%,周变化+0.16个百分点;独立焦化厂焦炉开工率73.37%,周变化+0.13个百分点。 资料来源:常闻 相关报告: 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解26年5月:进口收缩,5月当月进口煤价大幅提升2026.6.24 本周观点及投资建议 本周动力煤价格承压下行,炼焦煤价格高位震荡,受安监影响供应持续收紧,焦炭第九轮提涨暂未落地但存在可能,短期内炼焦煤价格将维持高位。 【山证煤炭】市场供应趋紧,煤价偏强运行-行业周报(20260615-20260621)2026.6.22 投资建议:海外局势有所缓和,但油价短期难回降至低位,煤化工战略价值仍在。考虑国内供给约束,即使霍尔木兹海峡通航、印尼出口政策放松,煤价仍有支撑。若夏季需求旺盛,煤价还存在再度上涨预期。若海外局势反复,关注【兖矿能源】和【中煤能源】。动力煤方面,夏季需求表现或带动电煤价格上涨,关注【新集能源】、【昊华能源】、【晋控煤业】、【华阳股份】、【山煤国际】、【陕西煤业】。炼焦煤方面,山西矿难后安监或将升级,减产逻辑下焦煤最受益,关注【山西焦煤】、【潞安环能】、【平煤股份】、【淮北矿业】、【盘江股份】。 分析师: 胡博执业登记编码:S0760522090003邮箱:hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰执业登记编码:S0760519110005邮箱:chengjunjie@sxzq.com 风险提示 反内卷相关政策效果温和;需求大幅回落;进口煤大幅增加等。 目录 附录........................................................................................................................................................................................51.上市公司重要公告简述...................................................................................................................................................52.煤炭行业动态数据跟踪...................................................................................................................................................62.1动力煤.........................................................................................................................................................................62.2冶金煤.........................................................................................................................................................................82.3焦钢产业链...............................................................................................................................................................102.4煤炭运输...................................................................................................................................................................112.5煤炭相关期货...........................................................................................................................................................122.6煤炭板块行情回顾...................................................................................................................................................13 图表目录 图1:大同浑源动力煤Q5500车板价..............................................................................................................................6图2:秦皇岛港动力煤Q5500平仓价..............................................................................................................................6图3:秦皇岛动力煤5500年度长协价(元/吨)............................................................................................................6图4:长协月度调整挂钩指数(NCEI、CCTD、BSPI).............................................................................................6图5:国际煤炭价格走势...................................................................................................................................................6图6:海外价差与进口价差...............................................................................................................................................6图7:环渤海九港口煤炭库存合计...................................................................................................................................7图8:中国电煤采购经理人指数.......................................................................................................................................7图9:产地焦煤价格...........................................................................................................................................................8图10:山西阳泉喷吹煤车板价及日照港平均价.............................................................................................................8图11:京唐港主焦煤价格及内外贸价差.........................................................................................................................8图12:京唐港1/3焦煤价格..............................................................................................................................................8 图13:独立焦化厂炼焦煤库存.........................................................................................................................................8图14:样本钢厂炼焦煤、喷吹煤总库存.........................................................................................................................8图15:六港口炼焦煤库存.................................................................................................................................................9图16:炼焦煤、喷吹煤库存可用天数.............................................................................................................................9图17:不同产能焦化厂炼焦煤库存............................