2026年全球电动汽车预测：韧性核查

Electric Revolution: Resilience – In Check. Global EV Forecast,2026 edition. Welcome to the 2026 edition of Bernstein’s Electric Revolution series - our annual cross-sector look at the transformation of the EV landscape. This year, we focus onsupply chainresilience, a theme rising in importance as EV adoption diverges by region and geopoliticalrisks intensify. OEMs and suppliers face growing pressure to anticipate, navigate, andrecover quickly from disruptions across sourcing, production, and logistics.In this first note Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com EV adoption continues to bifurcateacross regions against a backdrop of escalatinggeopolitical uncertainty that is stress-testing the automotive supply chain.China retainsdominant control over critical minerals and battery value chain, while risinggeopolitical tensions is increasing supply chain risks around semiconductors, Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Chinacontinues to lead despite policy headwinds, and we expect EV sales penetration(i.e. BEV & PHEV) to rise to c.62% from 53% in 2025. Further growth will likely slow asit depends on more cautious late adopters, but we remain constructive on the outlook.EVs continue to excel in both price competitiveness and product offering, particularly inadvanced ADAS and smart cockpit features. Faster product cycles relative to ICE vehiclesare also sustaining innovation and consumer interest. Meanwhile, as domestic growth Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Europe:The 31% growth in sales of BEVs in Europe in 5M26 continues to outpacethe overall market advance of 4.1% in the same period, helped by generous nationalgovernment support measures. This was then supercharged by surging fuel prices at thepump following the closure of the Straits of Hormuz which makes driving electric a more Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com Seunghyeok Kim+81 3 6777 6974seunghyeok.kim@bernsteinsg.com Japanis set to see EV adoption take off from 2026, with BEV penetration rising to ~3.7%from 1.3% in 2025, as new model launches accelerate and subsidies and charginginfrastructure expand. EV penetration has remained ~2% for years, but 2026 marks a clearinflection point. Japanese automakers benefit from a ‘multi-pathway’ approach, limiting theimpact of slowing EV demand, and remain more resilient than global peers, supported by Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Indiais one of the last major markets to inflect with PV BEV penetration edging up from4.2% in FY26 to 5.5-6% currently, driven by new launches and elevated petrol prices.Adoption still lies in the early majority phase. India lacks the accelerants that drove Chinaand Europe - no PHEV bridge, charging still thin outside the metros, and even post-GSTrelief the upfront premium bites for a buyer who underwrites on TCO. We see penetrationgrinding into high-single-digits near term, but the real inflection is regulatory: CAFE-III (from Param Shah+91 226 842 1417param.shah@bernsteinsg.com O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedBMW.GR, MBG.GR, RNO.FP, RACE, STLAP.FP, STLA, P911.GR, PAH3.GR, VOW3.GR, AML.LN, MSIL.IN, MM.IN estimate is Adjusted EPS; 175.HK,2333.HK valuation is EV/Sales (x); 2238.HK valuation is Revenues (M) CAGR; BMW.GR, MBG.GR, RNO.FP, RACE, STLAP.FP, STLA, P911.GR, PAH3.GR, INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Chinese Autos: The long-term secular growth outlook for EVs (i.e., BEVs & PHEVs) remains intact, but with EV sales penetrationin China already exceeding 60%, adoption has entered the late-majority phase. We would therefore expect slower domesticEV sales growth going forward. That said, despite subsidy scale-back and policy changes, such as the 5% purchase taxhike on EVs, momentum remains strong this year. We forecast China EV penetration to reach c.62% in 2026 (vs. c.53% in2025). However, amid an overall domestic market slowdown (estimated c.-11-13% yoy), domestic EV sales growth is likely to Given softer domestic demand, Chinese OEMs are increasingly focused on overseas markets as a key strategic growth driver.We forecast EV exports to grow c.60-80% yoy to c.4-4.5mn units, bringing total wholesale volume to c.17.5-18mn units(c.+13-15% yoy). Within our coverage,BYDis our top Outperform pick, driven by strong domestic momentum, continued For our EV names, we rateBYD and Xiaomi Outperform, andXPeng, Li Auto, and NIO Market-Perform. Within ourtraditional Chinese OEMs coverage, we rateGeely Outperform and Great Wall, GAC, and SAIC Market-Perform. European Autos:The challenge for European automakers is to ensure the