电动汽车追踪报告 - 2026年4月：新市场引领全球电动汽车销售复苏

EV TRACKER - April 2026: New markets lead recovery in global EVsales YoY growth with tentative signs ofademand recovery.China accountedfor54% ofglobalxEVsales followed by Europe on 25%,RoW14%and N.America at7%.Readers candownload the EV tracker data set here:Link Year to date growth in EV sales is 1% relativetoourforecast 14%EV sales growth for 2026.We expect globalxEVpenetrationto reachc.32%in2026,upfrom28%in2025. +85221232648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com +85221232606 salescontinuetodecline(-28%YoY)followingremovalofCvCincentives.EVsalesin China were 860K units in April rising 1% MoM, but remain 6% lower YoY due to subsidycuts.EuropeanEVsalesgrewto403Kunits(+27%YoY)whileRoWgrewrecordedtripledigit 111% YoY growth to 226K units. +4420 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com +656326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com areexperiencingdecliningsalesvolumes.ForApril, BEVsales increased by17%YoYto 1.14M units while PHEV sales declined-11% YoY to 456k units.BEV sales account forthemajorityof sales inall markets accountingfor68%of China xEV sales,69%forEurope86% for N.America and81% for RoW. +813 67776998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Harry Martin, CFA+4420 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com AmongtheOEMs,BYD,TeslaandGeelycontinuedtoleadsales,althoughBYDposted a YoY sales decline. In April, BYD (based on SNE data) led the market with 226Kunits (-22% YoY) followed by Tesla with 97K units (+10% YoY), Geely with 79K units (-19%YoY)and Changanwith68K units(11%YoY)ForEuropean brands,BMWwas strongestwith 41Kunits (-2% YoY)and VW sold 40K units (3%YoY) Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+4420 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+85221232615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com BatterydemandcontinuestooutstripEVdemandasOEMSoptforlargersizebatteriesandthemixshifttowards BEV's.Li-ionbatterydemandforpassengerEVsincreased 17%YoY to 86GWhthis month which was better than xEV sales.Battery salesin China were 44.2GWh (10% YoYvs.EV sales -6% YoY),Europe was 21.7GWh (+30%YoY),N.America was 8.2GWh (-25% YoY).Growth in EVbattery demand YTDis9%relative to ourtarget of 18% which we think is highlyachievable. Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Alice Buckley+442076766739alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.com SVOLT,CATLandGotionpostedthefastest growth inbatterysales2026YTDbutCATLcontinuestoleadonmarket sharewhichhas increasedto40%YTD (vs.36%in 2025). In April, CATL sold 33.0GWh (+29% YoY, 39.2% M/S).BYD remained secondwith 14.2GWh (0% YoY, 15.2% M/S), followed by LGES at 7.7GWh (+6% YoY, 10.6% M/S).Panasonic decreasedto4.3%M/S(2.8GWh,-23%YoY).SamsungSDIdecreasedto1.6GWh (-34% YoY, 2.3% M/S). TomohiroKashimoto+81367776975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com EthanXu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com LFPmarket share increasedto50%this month(5%YoY,4%MoM)asbothChinaand ex-China markets sawgreater LFPadoption.During themonth, NMC accounted for49%ofglobalxEVinstallations,downfrom54%last year,whileLFPincreased from45%to 50%. In China, LFP increased to 74% (71% last year).Ex-China LPF reached 26% (14%last year), indicating continued expansion of LFP. ParamShah+91226 842 1417param.shah@bernsteinsg.com TVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, VOW3.GR, RNO.FP, BMW.GR, MBG.GR, P911.GR, RACE, STLAP.FP, STLA, AML.LN, MSILIN estimate is AdjustedEPS; 175.HK, 2333.HK, 1810.HK, LI, 2015.HK, NIO, 9866.HK, XPEV, 9868.HK valuation is EV/Sales (x); TVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, VOW3.GR,MM.IN,MSIL.IN base yearis 2026; 003670.KS, 7267.JP base year is 2024;Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimates andanalysis. negative in the first two months of the year, March and April have seen a turnaround and a resumption to positive growth withglobal EV sales increasing 7% y-o-y and YTD growth of 1% vs. our FY forecast of +14%.At the same battery demand increasedby 17% in April with 9% growth YTD, vs.our expectation of 18%.We remain of the view that over the coming months growthto accelerate as highergasolineprices prompt more and more consumersto buy an electric vehicle. In China, which has thehighest global sales penetration of anymajormarket, EV demand dropped 6% y-o-y in 4M26.We attribute this mainlyduetosubsidy reductions, which replaced the full purchase tax exemption with a 50% exemption. In the U.S., EV sales continued todecline after the removal of the CvC credit last September and fell 28% this month. While sales have been disappointing, weexpectdemand will bottom out, although overall demand this yearis likelyto beflatto negative.Elsewhere,the picture is morepositive.Demand in Europeaccelerated to (+27%) whileRestof the Worldgrowth acceleratedto (+111%)making it thefastestgrowing region globally. South East Asia, Latin America and South Korea are now some of the fastest growing regions, withSouthKoreaEVsalesupa staggering 154% in April.While EVdemand improves, Li-ionbatterydemandforpassenger EVs alsoincreased 17%y-o-yto 86GWh in April, outpacingxEV sales as batteries continue tobecome cheaperand larg