亚洲经济与战略日报：新兴市场策略周报、全球经济展望与策略

Asia Economics & Strategy Daily EM Strategy Weekly; Global Economic Outlook & Strategy; CN 26H2Outlook; BoT on Hold EM Asia Economics & Strategy CITI'S TAKE Johanna ChuaAC+852-2501-2357johanna.chua@citi.com EM Strategy Weekly - A New USD Environment for EMFX; Global EconomicOutlook & Strategy: The Resilient Global Economy -Cascading SupplyShocks; EM Asia Strategy (Indonesia) - Taking Profits on our RemainingShort EURIDR; China Economics - 26H2 Outlook: AI Supercycle Cuts intothe K-shaped Economy; Thailand Economics - BOT On Hold With Policy Still“Appropriate”, Amid Ongoing Vigilance On Inflation;Upcoming events:(IN/PK Moharram Ashura): JP Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (Mkt: 1.6%YY, Prior:1.4%), SG May IP (Citi: -6.4%MoM, Mkt: 0.5%, Prior: 5.8%), US May Advancegoods trade balance (Citi: -$91.0bn, Mkt: -$85.0bn, Prior: $82.4bn), Fed Rohit GargAC+65-6657-3471rohit.garg@citi.com Gordon GohSamiran ChakrabortyXiangrong YuAdrienne LuiJosh Williamson EM Strategy Weekly - A New USD Environment for EMFX We have been discussing the potential effects of rising US real yields in global macrorisk for the past weeks. This current macro backdrop still suggests resilience in thereal rate valuation among high-yielding EM, which could produce downside EUR-EM FX in selected situations. A few factors support this assumption: Firstly, centralbanks in EM have, in general, delivered a less dovish monetary policy over the pastquarters,if compared to what was expected.Secondly,following a strong Please see: Emerging Markets Strategy Weekly - A New USD Environment for EMFXfor more details. Global Economic Outlook & Strategy: The Resilient Global Economy—CascadingSupply Shocks With thanks toStanley Ren The interim agreement between the US and Iran has eased some key headwindsrestraining the global economy. Even so, it’s too soon to say that the challenges arebehind us. The durability of the deal remains to be seen, and the conflict hasdamaged infrastructure across the Middle East. The good news is that the globaleconomy has absorbed a sustained period of oil prices above $100/barrel, and wejudge that global growth is tracking at 2½%, down from 2.9% prior to the conflict.Meanwhile a new risk to the global economy may be emerging. NOAA ascribes a Please see: Global Economic Outlook & Strategy - The Resilient Global Economy—Cascading Supply Shocks for more details. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Recent Research Notes EM Asia Strategy (Indonesia) - Taking Profits on our Remaining Short EURIDR We recommend taking profits on our remaining short EURIDR exposure that weinitiated on 9 Jun’26. We had also earlier taken half profits on 16 Jun. We exit ourshort EURIDR NDF (value date: 13 Jul’26) at 20,432 (vs entry: 20,800), for a profit of IDR has now rallied 2% vs the EUR since we initiated this trade on 9 Jun’26. EURIDRhas been quite negatively correlated to DXY so the recent repricing after hawkishFed has helped this trade. However, after this decent move, we are now unwindingthis trade for several reasons - (1) as our apprehension on IDR has slightly increasedgiven lower energy prices isn't improving Indonesia's terms of trade any further andin fact we are seeing some softness in terms of trade (2) portfolio flows broadlyremain flat given continued outflows from equities (3) EUR has moved a lot and Please see: Asia FX and Rates Strategy - Trade Idea: Indonesia – Taking Profits onour Remaining Short EURIDR China:AI is now front and center in China’s K-shaped economy. The AI supercyclefurther powers the strong leg – exports, production and the new economy.Meanwhile, AI-driven job displacement weighs on consumer confidence, and thesignificant AI buildout risks crowding out old economy investment. Overall trickle-down has been limited, with the weak leg fragmenting into distinct winners andlosers across sectors and geographies. Policy will likely stay targeted against thisbackdrop. We maintain our 4.7% growth forecast for 2026E, with 26Q2 likely the China Economics - 26H2 Outlook: AI Supercycle Cuts into the K-shaped Economy Thailand: The BOT kept the policy rate on hold in a unanimous vote, amidst: (a)0.8%-pt hike in GDP forecasts for 2026, and a 0.2%-pt cut for 2027 vs Apr, stillviewed by the BOT as low and uneven (b) 0.1%-pt cut in headline and coreforecasts, and a temporary overshoot vs the target, with less “elevateduncertainties”, though with vigilance on pass through and medium term inflationexpectations, (c) low credit growth along with stable credit quality and interestrates, (d) limited concern over THB depreciation, and (e) the current policy rate is Macroeconomic Forecasts If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analysts primarily responsible for t