国家伙伴关系框架：塔吉克斯坦国家伙伴关系框架（2026-2032财年）

Document ofThe World Bank GroupFOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank Group The date of the last Performance and Learning Review wasdateof January4, 2024 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN (FY26-32) Unlocking Tajikistan’s Potential for Private-Sector-Led Growth that Generates Jobs This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) outlines the strategic collaboration between the World Bank Group(WBG) and Tajikistan for the periodFY2026–2032. It is designed to support the country’s transition from aremittance-dependent economy that is highly vulnerable to shocks, toward a more sustainable and resilientgrowth model centered onprivate-sector job creation, human capital development, and climate resilience. Thisambitious and selective CPF is in line with the Government’s National DevelopmentStrategy 2030 that aims to 1.Tajikistan is at acritical juncturewhere its old growth model has reached its limit.While the countryhas maintained high GDP growth and achieved notable poverty reduction,1itremains heavily reliant on export oflow-skilled labor andrelatedremittances (accounting for about half of the country’s GDP), whichare vulnerable to external shocks and tightening labor migration policiesin host countries. Witharound40 percent of the working age population employed2and an estimated 600,000 youthwho will enter the labor force over the coming decade3, the economy will have to generate about1.4 million jobsover that horizon to seize the opportunity offered by the youth bulge and increase labor force participation for all.2.But the private sector is constrained andhas not reached its potentialas a driver ofjob creation, productivity growth, andprivateinvestment, which accounts foraround 15percent of total investment.Fostering moreprivatesectordynamismwill requirestrengthening the business environment, ensuringaleveledplaying fieldvia fair, predictable and non-discretionary enforcement ofbusinessregulations andtax administration, as wellimproving equal access to public services, procurementopportunities andfinance.The economy also continuesto be dominated by a large public sector, including more than 600 3.Yet Tajikistan possesses significant growth potential centered on its vast natural resources.Withthe completion of the flagship RogunHydropower Plant(HPP), which is expected to double electricitygeneration, the governmentaims to transform the country by harnessing its significant renewable energypotential and becoming a clean energy exporter for South and Central Asia. Also, with over 800documented depositsof minerals and metals, the mining sector offers a large potential. In addition to 4.Developing Tajikistan's large potential for sustainable and resilient growth requires a transitionfrom a state-led, remittance-dependent economic model to a more private-sector led and diversified growth model.4Unlocking private capital to sustain growth and accelerate job creation requires majorimprovements to the business environment: leveling the playing field, reforming SOEs, improving theenforcement of competition policy, enhancing investor protection and reducing bureaucratic hurdles anddiscretion in how regulations are applied. As a landlocked country, significant investments are needed in transport costs. Also, Tajikistan has much to contribute towards regional integration with its endowmentsand strategic location: not least its large hydropower potential to export clean electricity, and a geographyat the crossroads of Asia and Europe. Investing in its young and growing population by focusing on skillsdevelopment will also be critical for job creation. Tajikistancontinues to lagother middle-incomecountries in human capital development. ItsHuman Capital Index Pluswas139in 2025, compared to anaverage of 225 inmiddle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia, with low education and 5.Informed by wide consultations and Government priorities, the CPF prioritizes fourOutcomesmeasured byelevenWBG Scorecard indicators.It will straddle two IDAreplenishment cycles and aimsfor high selectivity and focus on areas with reform momentum.The new CPF will continue to anchor itssupport to key reforms onanew series of development policy operations (DPOs), grounded on rigorousanalytics, provided impactful reforms continue to progress in priority areas like SOE governance, thebusiness environment (e.g., investor protection, competition law and corporate governance),andopenness of key sectors to private investment and competition. When reforms progress, investments— 6.The IDA envelope requires heightened selectivity in the face of mounting financial needs (includingthe Rogun HPP)as well as focus on the most impactful engagements (whether lending or advisory), thataddress the country’s mos