携程集团2026年第一季度调整后营业利润超预期，但2026年第二季度指引偏软

Internet Software &Services Softer2Qguidance revenuegrowthof3-8% (vsTongcheng5-10%),amidmacroand compliance headwinds Global Head of Transport&LogisticsResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedashiain@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6717Deepak Maurya*, CFA The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddeepakmaurva@hsbc.com.hk+85228224292Bruce Chu*, CFA (Priced as of 23 Jun 2026)Soft 2Q26topline guidance vs Tongcheng:The share price in thepost-market is down 2%following Trip.com's softer 2Q26 guidance which sees revenue growthdecelerate to 3-8% in 2Q26 (vs +17% y-0-y in 1Q26), citing macro headwinds andoperationaladjustmentsthecompanyimplementedtoalignwithevolvingindustrystandards and compliance frameworks.The topline guidance is weakervs that ofTongchengTravel(0780HK,HKD13.07,Buy)whichsees2Q26revenuegrowthinthe range of 5-10%,especially given its overseas and China outbound presence.This indicates bigger impacts on its domestic hotel business from the decline in airtravel demand, and potential market share loss to competitors amidst ongoingoperational adjustments. AnalystAsiaTransportThe Hongkong and Shaai Banking Corporation Limited+85229966621 notregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRArequlations Anti-trust probe: Trip.com is yet to offer the timeline and outcome of the currentinvestigations in its 1Q26 results release, but it notes that the SAMR's investigationcould directlyresult ina significantfine,otherfinancial penalties orchangestoTrip.com's business practices,and have an adverse impact on its financial position. 1Q26 a beat on adj. operating profit: 1Q26 revenue was up 17% y-0-y which is 1%aheadof HSBCeand2%aheadofconsensus,helpedbystrongerthan expectedpackaged tour and corporate travel demand.Adj.operating income was up 15% y-o-y which is 4% ahead of HSBCe and consensus. Equity in losses of affliates spiked toRMB1.2bn due to the fall in MakeMyTrip's share price, which contributed to a miss inthe bottom line by8% vs HSBCe. Operating highlights: Gross bookings on Trip.com's international platformincreased byapproximately65% y-o-y while inbound travel bookings surged byapproximately 90% y-0-y. For full valuation and risks and details see our latest report: Chinese Airlines andOTAs;LabourDaydatavalidatesourcautiousviewonBig3,06May2026. Read also: Trip.com Group: Recent progress on anti-trust investigation, 6 March 2026Tongcheng Travel: Staying agile against air travel headwind, 22 May 2026 Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited ViewHSBCGlobal InvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views orforecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Parash Jain, Deepak Maurya, CFA and Bruce Chu, CFA Equities: Stockratings and basis for financialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestorsutilisevariousdisciplinesand investmenthorizons whenmaking investmentdecisions.Ratings shouldnotbe usedorrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the ratingbecause research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating. From23rdMarch2015HSBChasassignedratingsonthefollowingbasis:Thetargetpriceisbasedontheanalyst'sassessmentofthestock'sactual currentvalue,althoughweexpect ittotakesixto12 months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stock willbe classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock maybe classified as a Buy or aHold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it is between5%and20%belowthecurrentshareprice,thestockmaybeclassifiedasaHoldoraReduce;andwhenitismorethan20%below the current share pric