乌兹别克斯坦：2026展望

OUTLOOK 2026 www.intellinews.com To subscribe to this report contact our sales team:tel: +1-617-648-0190 Email:sales@intellinews.com A complete list of all our reports can be found athttp://pro.intellinews.com/reports/ Table of contents Executive summary1.0 Political outlook2.0 Macro Economy• 2.1 GDP• 2.2 Inflation & Monetary policy• 2.3 Labour & Income• 2.4 Industrial Production• 2.6 International Reserves 3.0 External Environment4.0 Budget & Debt4.1 Debt4.2 Budget5.0 Real Economy5.1 Retail5.2 Banks5.3 Industry5.4 TMT5.5 ESG5.6 Agriculture5.7 Manufacturing5.8 Automotive5.9 Metals & Mining6.0 Energy & Power7.0 Markets Outlook www.intellinews.com Executive summary In 2025, Uzbekistan experienced a year of dynamic political, economic,social and cultural developments. The country pursued a dual path of centralising executive authority whilecautiously expanding political pluralism. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’sadministration advanced comprehensive governance and anti-corruptionreforms, including the dismissal of compliance heads in 117 ministries andagencies, strengthened oversight of strategic sectors and the introduction of55 new digital and institutional anti-corruption initiatives. These measuresreinforced public trust, attracted foreign investment and contributed to over$120bn in investment over seven years. Political consolidation was underscored by the appointment of SaidaMirziyoyeva as head of the presidential administration, reflecting aconcentration of power within the presidential family. Simultaneously,parliamentary reforms expanded opposition rights, marking measured stepstoward political pluralism. Uzbekistan strengthened its international and regional engagement, balancingstrong economic ties with China, Russia and the Gulf states while fosteringrelations with the EU and United States. President Mirziyoyev highlighteddomestic achievements—including poverty reduction from 35% to 6.6%,expanded education, green energy projects and small businessdevelopment—at the 80th UN General Assembly. Regionally, Uzbekistanresolved border disputes, advanced transport and energy corridors throughAfghanistan and promoted initiatives on counter-terrorism, water managementand economic integration. A major cultural milestone was the 43rd UNESCO General Conference inSamarkand, attended by over 4,600 participants from 184 countries. Theconference reinforced Uzbekistan’s international profile and commitment tomultilateral cooperation, cultural preservation and technological ethics,including the launch of the UNESCO-Uzbekistan Beruni Prizes for AI research. Economic growth accelerated in 2025, with GDP expanding 6.8–7.6% throughthe first three quarters, driven by industrial output, domestic consumption andsustained investment. Key sectors, including ICT, construction, trade andenergy, supported continued expansion. Inflation moderated to 7.5% byNovember, while international reserves reached a record $61.2bn, bolsteringfinancial stability. Trade expanded to 210 countries, with exports growing 28%year-on-year to $29.01bn, driven by gold, agricultural products and a maturingtextile sector. Uzbekistan continued its transition to value-added production,particularly in textiles and advanced toward WTO accession, expected inspring 2026. The Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF) and other investmentinitiatives confirmed Uzbekistan’s emergence as a hub for internationalfinance, energy projects, infrastructure and tourism. Significant agreementsincluded a $5bn resort project, renewable energy plants, SME financinginitiatives and a Central Asian Direct Investment Fund. Uzbekistan achieved historic milestones in sports and cultural nation-building.The national football team qualified for the FIFA World Cup for the first time,reflecting long-term investment in youth development and professional sportsinfrastructure. The near-completion of the Centre for Islamic Civilisation inTashkent highlighted cultural preservation, education and civic engagement. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues became central to policyin 2025. The government responded to acute air pollution in Tashkent,introduced stricter industrial and fuel standards, advanced waste-to-energyprojects and launched water security and irrigation modernisationprogrammes. Social and environmental resilience initiatives extended toschools, healthcare facilities and urban greening, reinforcing sustainabledevelopment objectives. The IT and technology sector emerged as a growth driver, with fintech, AI,e-commerce and digital banking expanding rapidly. Initiatives included openbanking frameworks, AI Centres of Excellence, satellite development andinternational partnerships, notably supporting companies like Uzum inachieving unicorn status. Looking ahead, Uzbekistan aims to sustain 6–7% GDP growth, reduce inflationto 5% by 2027, advance WTO integration, continue infrastructuremodernisation, strengthen ESG initiatives and consolidate its positi