2026年半导体行业展望：更新我们的2026年AI加速器模型

Fubon Research September 3,2025 Update of our 2026 AI accelerator model ◆nVidia Rubin’s current status◆More positive news on Broadcom◆MediaTek’s TPU project status nVidia Rubin’s current status We previously highlighted that nVidia’snew Rubin chipwill overdrive its compute power.We now think nVidia’s new Rubin chip will still meet the company’s previous guidance to belaunched in 2H26, but the timing maybe later thanthemarket’s expectation. Westillexpectthe Rubin GPU chip to ramp up in3Q26, andrack level shipment may start to ramp up by4Q26. Recently through our channel checks, we believethatRubin’s compute power willincrease to 2300w vs. 1800w when it was firstly introduced. Due to the compute powerincrease, we think there are several spec or component upgrades. One notable upgrade isfrom Jentech (3653 TT,NotRated). We think nVidia’s Rubin will likely adoptJentech’sMicrochannel lid earlier than expected. Previously,we thought it will begin from Rubin Ultra. Webelievethe development is a positive to the company as the ASP for Micro channel lid maybe 3-4 times higher than the current solution. Secondly,giventhe higher compute power,our channel checks suggest a more positive trend for chip testing. For BW chiptesting,currently there are two FT tests and one burn-in test. Entering Rubin, we think nVidia mightincrease another roundofburn-in testing and FT testing, which is a positive to KYEC (2449TT) and Advantest. We think KYEC and Advantest currently have more than enough chiptesters. However, they may add more PS5000 (V93K) chip testers before Rubin’s massproduction. As for KYEC, we think Rubin’s chip testing dollar content will likelygrow70-80% vs. BW,and currently thishasnotbeenfactored intoKYEC’sFY26 earnings forecast.With more potential upside, KYEC remains our top pick in nVidia’s supply chain. Meanwhile,we think Jentech is another interesting nameinnVidia’s Rubin upgrade cycle. Source:Google Sherman Shang(886-2) 6606-8060sherman.shang@fubon.com Vincent Cho(886-2) 2781-5995 ext. 37139vincent.cw.cho@fubon.com More positive news on Broadcom We see more positive newson Broadcom recently, suggestingthatBroadcom has revised upits2026 CoWoS allocation to 180k.The news echoesour previous positive view as wealready have 187kCoWoS allocation for Broadcom in 2026. In our previous AI acceleratormodel, we highlight Broadcom and AMDasthe fastest growing customers in TSMC’s CoWoS.The most asked questionaboutBroadcom is its TPU allocation,especially in 2H26. We thinkBroadcom’s TPU momentum will be very strong in 2H25 and 1H26. However, wethink theTPU momentum will start to slowdown a bit in 2H26 as MediaTek’s TPU project will startto enter mass production while the V6e will be phased out. We alreadyforecast2.6mn TPUin 2026, which is a mix of V6 and V7. Based on our AI accelerator model’s BOM cost analysis,we expect V7’s ASP to reach US$10-12kwhile V6e’sis around US$4-5k. Overall, we thinkBroadcom’s total allocation will keep increasing as more projects enter mass production.One notable project is for Meta’s MTIA V3. MediaTek’s TPU projecton track to US$1bn Based on our recent checks, we think MediaTek is still comfortablewithits US$1bn revenuetargetforthe TPU projectin 2026, which will also include NRE revenue. On the other hand,it is also possible thatthe company’s managementwaspreviouslyjustbeing conservativewhen itprovidedtheUS$1bn revenue target.Overall, wethink the projectis now on track,andits ASIC revenue willlikely beat ourearlierestimate of US$500-600mn. Source:Fubon research Other Important Disclosures Registration of non-US analysts:The author(s) of this report is not an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore is not subject to the FINRA Rule 2241and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst. This report is produced by Fubon Securities. This research report is intended for distribution to institutional investors as further defined below. Research reports produced by a third party broker dealer and distributed by Jefferies Group LLC or its affiliates ("Jefferies") to Jefferies clients are distributed by one of the followingJefferies Group LLC (“Jefferies”) group companies: United States:Jefferies LLC which is an SEC registered broker-dealer and a member of FINRA (and distributed by Jefferies Research Services, LLC, an SEC registered InvestmentAdviser, to clients paying separately for such research). Canada:Jefferies Securities Inc., which is an investment dealer registered in each of the thirteen Canadian jurisdictions and a dealer member of the Canadian Investment RegulatoryOrganization, including research reports produced jointly by Jefferies Securities Inc. and another Jefferies entity (and distributed by Jefferies Securities Inc.). Where Jefferies Securities Inc. distributes research reports produced by Jefferies LLC, Jefferies International Limit