2026年商业地产前景展望

The opportunities are real—if you know where to look To what extent could macroeconomic volatility and policy uncertainty impact the pace of the commercial real Is now the moment to recommit to the property market comeback? Where does upside exist within a bifurcated CRE loan market? How can strategic partnerships expand access to CRE capital and diversify investment channels? Are CRE organizations investing in AI progress, or just paying for promise? Read on to find out. Macroeconomic volatility and policy uncertainty may putthe CRE industry recovery on pause, but not for good Inlast year’s commercial real estate outlook, we anticipated that 2025 could mark a recovery for the globalCRE industry—buoyed by an expected return of deal activity, more favorable lending terms, greater industrycollaboration, and advances in artificial intelligence. As we write a year later, it hasn’t exactly played out that Trade and regulatory uncertainties have complicated decision-making, prompting some leaders in the CREindustry to rethink their approach. We do not expect this to abate any time soon as trade negotiations andlegal challenges continue. That said, opportunities for growth likely exist—for those who understand the Navigating a pause in the recovery Results from Deloitte’s 2026 commercial real estate outlook survey help us confirm what macroeconomicconditions are likely of most concern to global owners, investors, and the CRE industry overall, as well as from over 850 global chief executives and their direct reports at major real estate owner and investor When asked how our survey respondents expect their revenues and expenses to change for the coming 12 to18 months, there was a slight pullback in optimism from last year’s survey. Eighty-three percent of ourrespondents expect their revenues to improve by the end of the year compared with 88% last year. And across We noticed a similar pattern around expectations for CRE fundamentals. Many respondents still expect allconditions surveyed, like rental rates, leasing activity, vacancies, and cost of capital, to improve through 2026(65%), compared with last year (68%). Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, CRE fundamentals don’t Overall, for business and industry expectations, this year’s CRE outlook sentiment index (figure 1) scored 65—well above the 2023 trough (44), but just below last year’s high (68), indicating that optimism persists. Sustained optimism is not without some hesitations, though. When asked about what macroeconomic trendscould most negatively impact their financial performance for the next 12 to 18 months, respondents identifiedcapital availability, elevated interest rates, cost of capital, currency volatility, and changes in tax policy most The top three responses pull on common threads—capital availability,elevated interest rates,andcost ofcapitalare all likely tied to concerns around accessing CRE debt markets, coupled with interest rates that arestill perceived to be higher for longer—a recurring theme from last year’s survey. Though as of the September percentage point, with indications there could be two more rate cuts by the end of 2025. Changes in tax policyresurfaced as one of respondents’ top five concerns for the second consecutive year. Weestimate this remained elevated again due to anticipation surrounding recent US tax proposals, such as Section survey fielding—would have increased rates on foreign investment into the United States.2Uncertainty aroundthe future of the Pillar Two regime could also be a factor. Lower in the results was a new entry to this year’s response options—international trade policies—whichranked ninth globally but was the fifth-biggest concern for Asia-Pacific respondents. While international tradeheadlines have likely been a factor behind economic uncertainty, CRE leaders from our survey are seemingly less concerned with its potential impact to their financial conditions for 2026. This may be, in part, due toglobal owners and investors coming to expect a more volatile trade environment after initial discussions, as Selective, flexible capital commitments could determinesuccess in the property market comeback as early-mover advantages appear to wane Increasing global investment returns and volumes may The commercial real estate property markets have seemingly turned a corner on recent performance of 2025, notched the first year-over-year increase since mid-2022.5Through late June, the one-year totalreturn for the S&P Global property index (14.1%), a measure of the global investable universe of publiclytraded property companies, outpaced both the S&P 500 (11.7%) and the S&P World equities index (13.8%).And for private real estate, following two years of negative results, total returns have been positive for threeconsecutive quarters.6 Our survey results indicate that many leaders still see CRE as a potential safe investment, given itsperformance during similar periods of uncertainty in the