2026年美国半导体行业展望：AI仍是核心主线；芯片市场波动前行但前景乐观

2026 Year Ahead: AI still the place to be,expect choppy still cheerful year for chips Price Objective Change 16December 2025 Top6 for ’26: NVDA, AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, CDNSWe see 2026 asmid-point of an 8-10 year journey of upgrading traditional IT infra for EquityUnited StatesSemiconductors accelerated and AI workloads. Greater scrutiny of AI returns and hyperscaler cash flowscould keep stocks choppy, offset by newer/faster LLM builders and AI factories servingenterprise and sovereign customers. We forecast 2026 to feature another ~30% growthtowards the first $1tn for semiconductor sales, supported by nearly double-digit YoYwafer fab equipment (WFE) sales growth. Our top 6 large-cap picks focus on quality andsector leadership and include NVDA, AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, ADI and CDNS. AmongSMidcaps we like CRDO, MKSI, MTSI, TER and AEIS. We update POs for our coverage. Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Duksan JangResearch AnalystBofASduksan.jang@bofa.com AI: race still in early/mid stages, focus on sector leadersMid-age blues in AI investments, but we forecast another year of solid 50%+ YoY growth Michael ManiResearch AnalystBofASmichael.mani@bofa.com in AI semis driven by strong data center utilization, tight supply, enterprise adoption andrace between LLM-builders, hyperscale and sovereign customers. Leader NVDA tradingat compelling 24x/18x CY26/27E PE, half of its growth-rate, with solid pipeline andcatalysts (CES, GTC tradeshows in Q1). We also like Buy-rated AVGO, AMD, CRDO. Liam PharrResearch AnalystBofASliam.pharr@bofa.com Semicaps: unsungheroes of the revolution Wecontinue to like semicap equipment and forecast 10%/14% YoY growth in CY26/27Etowards $131bn/$150bn, driven by fab upgrades to support high-bandwidth memory,higher layer count NAND, leading-edge logic (3nm/2nm) and advanced packaging. Semicaptrading at a premium to historical multiples, but we see potential for continued EPSupgrades given consensus models bottoms-up sales growth (6-8% annual) below our top-down WFE (10%+) forecast. China restrictions remain a key factor but we assume thegeopolitical situation to remain status-quo. Top picks LRCX, KLAC and AMAT, MKSI, AEIS. Exhibit1: 2026key stocksin Compute,Semicap/Testing, Analog, EDAKey stocksinto 2026 Analog: unconvincing turnaround, stay selectiveLukewarm macro conditions (industrial PMI <50), declining car production, rising China competition and sluggish consumer demand keep analog investing tough. We focus onselectedsolid FCF (ADI), low-val’n (NXPI), Aero/Def (MTSI) and product cycles (ALGM). EDA low-beta high quality exposure to emerging themesCDNS remains our top pick but we also like its electronic design automation (EDA) counterpart SNPS as (relatively) lower beta, high-quality options for gaining exposure toresilient R&D in almost every silicon-levered theme. Recent acquisitions (Ansys) alsoenable EDA stocks to gain exposure to long-term, industrial, data center power, auto androbotics themes. EDA stocks surprisingly underperformed in‘25 so due for a catch-up. Emerging themes: Co-packaged Optics, Robotics, QuantumReiterateNeutral but raise PO for optical component leaders LITE and COHR, expect co-packaged optics to emerge as key enabler of high-speed 200 Gb/s+ scale-up in AIclusters. Separately, we see greater US White House push towards robotics to catch-upto China, benefitting TER. Quantum emerging opportunity with l-t implications. Welower our PO for ARM to $145 from $205 given increasing SoftBank dependence tomeet near-term growth outlook, limited visibility into new CPU chipset/silicon business. Timestamp: 16 December 2025 05:46AM EST Contents Theme 1: Data Center/AI Capex14 The current state of LLMs and AI accelerators14The profitability/depreciation concern15The slowing capex concern16Memory/Optical: more cautious after run19 Theme 2: Semicap Equipment (WFE)24 2026: AI to drive choppy yet cheerful year Yogi Berra—'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.' We remain constructive on chip stocks heading into 2026. While debates around thepace and profitability of AI investments will continue, we believe consensus under-appreciates the mission critical, offensive and defensive nature of capex investmentsbeing done by the largest and best funded tech companies. Return on investment isbeing delivered not just by extracting more insights about customers, but also byupgrading to more efficient (GPU/custom chip) accelerated infra from traditional CPUhardware, and protecting existing moats in search, e-commerce, social and streaming.Enterprise adoption of AI is just getting started, while sovereign (government)customers globally are keen on becoming self-sufficient in AI deployments to promotevital national security, high-tech employment, healthcare and cybersecurity sectors.Overall, despite continued volatility, we expect AI to continue to drive attractive returnsacross wide range of cloud, memory, optical and semicap stocks.