美国经济展望：2026年前景向好

A dose of optimism The US economy is at a crossroads, with a striking dichotomy between strong economicactivity and soft labor data.Our base case is that consumer resilience will help stabilizethe labor market. Fed and private sector growth forecasts have been chronically EconomicsUnited States AdityaBhaveUS EconomistBofAS+1 646 855 9929aditya.bhave@bofa.com Five tailwindsfor 2026 We see fivetailwinds for the economy next year. First, we expect the OBBBA to add 0.3-0.4pp to GDP growth in FY26, via consumer and capex stimulus. Second, the laggedeffect of ongoing Fed cuts is likely to buoy activity in 2H26. Third, trade policy shouldturn more supportive for growth regardless of whether the IEEPA tariffs are overturned.Fourth, we think AI-related investment will continue to support the economy next year. Stephen JuneauUS EconomistBofAS+1 202 442 7429stephen.juneau@bofa.com Shruti MishraUS EconomistBofAS+1 646 855 1040smishra44@bofa.com Inflation:stuck above target Matthew YepUS EconomistBofAS+1 646 556 2970matthew.yep@bofa.com Ourupgraded growth outlook has led us to raise our 4Q/4Q 2026 headline and core PCEinflation forecasts to 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Tariffs should continue to tricklethrough into prices next year, keeping the core PCE above 3% through 3Q. We also thinkunderlying inflation will remain above 2%, because policy rates are already close to our US EconomicsBofASSee Team Page for List of Analysts Labor market: stabilizing around full employment OBBBA: One Big Beautiful Bill Act The labor market is cooling, but not in the non-linear fashion that is characteristic ofcyclical downturns. We estimate that immigration tightening has lowered breakeven jobgrowth to about 20k per month. We expect the labor market to realign with the strengthin spending next year, with job growth averaging 50k/month and the u-rate peaking at GDP: Gross Domestic Product PCE: Personal Consumption Fed: FOMC composition matters as much as data FOMC: Federal Open MarketCommittee In the near term, a December cut is a very close call. Either way,we think there will beenough evidence of labor market stabilization by early 2026 that the Fed won’t cut againunder Chair Powell.The next Fed Chair will likely lean very dovish. Whether they can getthe committee on board will depend on both the data flow and FOMC composition. IEEPA: International Emergency U-rate: Unemployment RateDOGE: Department of GovernmentEfficiency Downside risks: labor downturn, AI-related market shock The proximate downside risk to our outlook is that the labor market keeps weakeningand spending collapses under the weight of income losses, triggering further job cuts.Another risk is that AI investment slows, causing a shock in equity/credit markets. This Upside risks: even easier policy On the upside, part of the tariff revenues could get refunded to consumers next year via BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of thisreport. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The perils of forecasting without data With the US economy at a crossroads, the government shutdown couldn’t have arrivedat a worse time from a forecasting perspective. But the underlying tension betweenconsumer strength and a soft labor market should still resolve in coming months. Wethink the consumer will eventually“win”, with assists from easier fiscal and monetary Exhibit1:We expect 4Q/4Q growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation should remain above 2% throughout our forecast horizonSummary of our economic outlook Growth: above trend… or a stronger trend? The Fed’s median forecast of“longer run”(i.e., trend) GDP growth has been stuck at1.8% for the last five years and has never exceeded 2.0%. Yet in the 12 years since2013, 4Q/4Q GDP growth has averaged 2.5% and has dipped below 2% just twice: 2020 This chronic pessimism appears to extend to the private sector too. The Bloombergconsensus was gloomy at the start of 2023 and 2024, though growth turned out to bestrong in both years. This year, despite much larger-than-expected Liberation Day tariffs(which pushed some to briefly call for a recession) and the mechanical drag in 4Q from In 2026, five factors should push growth back up to 2.4%. First, we expect the OBBBA toadd 0.3-0.4pp to GDP growth in FY26, compared to a roughly flat fiscal impulse in 2025(see the report:US Viewpoint: One step closer to fireworks). Business investment shouldbenefit from the restoration of the TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) tax benefits that sunset And consumers will get around $100bn (0.3% of GDP) in fiscal stimulus. Of this, ~$65bnwill be a tax-refund“windfall”due to favorable treatment of tip and overtime income,and a larger standard deduction for seniors. Refunds mostly get paid out in Feb-Apr. Our