美国半导体行业：AI拓展至2028年，上调预期

State of the Union: raising estimates as AIextends visibility into 2028 Price Objective Change 23 June 2026 Inflation plus stronger demand = higher industry forecastsWe reiterate our thesis of the AI industry moving to addressingstructural and physical EquityUnited StatesSemiconductors (chips, power) constraints, from having to defend return-on-investment before.Memory chip shortages and price inflation remain the critical moving pieces, and weupdate our semis industry models and price objectives to conform to the updatedindustry estimates. Specifically, we raise our CY30E total semis industry TAM to $2.7Tn,or +28% CAGR between CY25-30E, from $2.3Tn/+23% CAGR prior, led mostly by growthin memory/data center, and also incrementally by recovery in auto/industrial. Our newindustry forecasts/ests derive higher price objectives for key semiconductor andsemicap equipment companies as summarized in Exhibit 1. Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Duksan JangResearch AnalystBofASduksan.jang@bofa.com Michael ManiResearch AnalystBofASmichael.mani@bofa.com Top 5 themes driving next $1Tn in incremental semi salesThe chip industry took ~50 years to generate its first $1Tn in sales. We expect AI to helpadd another $1Tn in just the next five years. Key drivers include:1) AI data centersystemsTAM of ~$1.7Tn by CY30E, growing from just ~$273bn in CY25, led byInsatiable demand for compute (see ourAI 2030 report);2) Memorystrength/durability,led by LTAs providing greater confidence in 2-3-year supply/demand/pricing visibility, asseen in recent MU/Anthropic partnership;3) Semicap/Reshoring/EDA–clearbeneficiaries from extending supply agreements, rising complexity of chips/packaging–see WFE $250bn by CY28E (more below);4) Analogsbenefiting from rising power reqs(seeour AI power semis primer);5) Agentic CPUdemand, totaling ~$170bn in serveropp’ty with benefits across x86/ARM (seeour AI CPU TAM report); and6) Physical AIover time with also some benefits to DCs for handling more complex queries. Liam PharrResearch AnalystBofASliam.pharr@bofa.com Exhibit1: We raise POs across selectAI/compute, memory, and semicapcompaniesPO changes WFE: raising TAM, now see ~$250-300bn in CY28-30E We tweak our CY27E WFE higher by +4% to $190bn (+31% YoY) from $183bn (+27%YoY) prior while materially raising CY28E by 23% to $250bn (+32% YoY) from $203bn(+11% YoY) prior. Our new CY29/30E WFE forecasts are $268bn (+7% YoY)/$292bn(+9%). The upward revisions are based on our expectation for greater cleanroomavailability by CY28, LT visibility afford by memory LTAs, and critical tech inflectionswhich tend to drive WFE-per-wafer higher during upcycles across memory and logic (seeanalysis in the back). Customer and capacity progress at INTC and Samsung are alsopositives for advanced F/L while Terafab potential could also potentially be credited. Core semis benefit from AI, consumer remains a headwindOf the ~$2.7Tn total semis outlook by CY30E, we see core semis (non-memory) outlookof ~$1.1Tn, growing at ~14% CAGR from ~$567bn in CY25. We see growth driven byserver silicon (+24% CAGR) and wired comms (+15%) driven by AI-relatedchip/networking demand, while consumer-facing PCs (+2%) and smartphones (+0%)remain weak on unit headwinds. We see incrementally better outlook in industrial(+11%) and automotive (+8%) on modest unit recovery and continued content gains. Key PO changes: MU, semicap/complexity, AI beneficiariesBased on new industry & WFE forecasts, we raise ests/POs across related beneficiaries. Glossary at end of report BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 37 to 40. Analyst Certification on page 36. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 33.12986052 Timestamp: 23 June 2026 05:00AM EDT Contents Summary of PO changes3Global Semis Forecast Update4Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) Forecast6The case for $250bn WFE by CY28E8MU: Raise PO to $1,500, Buy14Memory content per AI system scales faster than compute14Structurally lower supply elasticity15DRAM/NAND Pricing Trends18MU Estimate Changes18MU Valuation Analysis, $1,500 PO19INTC: Raise PO to $160, Buy20Fully established IDM by CY30, EPS power $6+20ARM: Raise PO to $460, Neutral21Sum-of-Parts Valuation: IP & Chip Businesses21CRDO: Raise PO to $340, Buy22MRVL: Raise PO to $365, Buy23EPS Power $15+ by CY30E, see $365 PO23ALAB: Raise PO to $450, Neutral24EPS Power $9+ by CY30E, see $450 PO24TER: Raise PO to $525, Buy26ACLS: Raise PO to $156, Underperform27VECO already generally priced in at EPS power $9+27Semicap PO changes and LT EPS power28 Summary of PO changes Exhibit2: We raise POs forACLS, AEIS,ALAB, AMAT, ARM, CRDO, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MKSI, MRVL, MU andTER. We move t