高通2026投资者日：AI驱动下的边缘与数据中心扩张

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target QCOM 140.00 USD Qualcomm (QCOM) - Ten questions for the investor day tomorrow Qualcomm is holding an investor day in NYC on Wednesday, June 24 (register here). To assistinvestors, we provide 10 questions for the meeting. Qualcomm is holding their 2026 investor day on Wednesday, June 24 (titled “Scaling AIacross the connected edge and data center”), with presentations from Cristiano Amon (CEO),Akash Palkhiwala (CFO), Nakul Duggal (EVP and Group GM, Automotive, Industrial andEmbedded IoT, and Robotics), and Tony Pialis (EVP and GM, Data Center, formerly CEO ofAlphawave). The company last held a full-company analyst day about a year and a half ago where theyattempted to outline the diversification story away from smartphones and into areas bothold (auto, IoT) and new (PCs, VR/XR etc); the day was however met with some skepticism atthe time and Qualcomm never really got credit for their progress especially as smartphoneoutlook has grown more disappointing. However, they now appear to have a better shot ongoal as they (hopefully?) join the ranks of those with a broader datacenter narrative, andinvestor anticipation for the company to outline and size their DC/AI vision is strong (anappetite which we have clearly misjudged in recent weeks/months). Hence, while we expect to hear about all their diversification initiatives it will be thedatacenter story that likely will carry (or drop) the day (with questions on timeframe, size,and share across CPU, accelerator/rack, and ASIC all top of mind), and we would hope fora 5-year outlook (giving investors more room to dream) as preferred to a three year (i.e.hoping for 2031 vs 2029). We would also anticipate updates on other parts of the businessthough including auto pipeline and outlook, PCs (maybe worse?) and VR (maybe better?), andanything they can tell us about the state of play in smartphones both near and longer term(when AI at the edge might become a bigger driver). Our note today provides 10 questions that we will be listening for at the event. We rateQualcomm Market-Perform with a $140 target price. Investment Implications QCOM (MP, $140): Memory headwinds appear likely to pressure smartphone builds andnumbers appear high; we shall see if datacenter dream is enough to attract buyers. DETAILS Qualcomm is holding an investor day in NYC on Wednesday, June 24 (register here). To assist investors we provide 10 questionsfor the meeting. Will management provide an update on targets set out at the last investor day in November 2024 and if so how mightthey look like? How will they account for Datacenter?At its last investor day, Qualcomm held its FY26 and FY31 Autotargets unchanged (>$4B and >$9B, respectively) and provided an interim FY29 target of ~$8B (vs ~$4.0B in FY25). For IoT,QCOM targeted revenue to grow from $5.4B in FY24 ($6.6B in FY25) to $14B in FY29. Within IoT, Management expected$4B for PCs, >$2B in XR, $4B in Industrial and $8B in Other (networking, tablets, headphones and smartwatches) in FY29,respectively. We wonder if management will provide new targets for the above segments besides the Datacenter opportunityand whether any targets will go out beyond FY29, especially given the many moving pieces (strong Autos business, weakhandsets due to memory pricing/availability, Apple roll-off etc.) and presumably a strongly ramping Datacenter business. How large is the Data Center opportunity in terms of the TAM, revenue, and timeframe, and how does Qualcommsegment the Datacenter market? Which segment are they targeting, and what is their right to win given Qualcomm isa late comer and the market is becoming crowded?Since Qualcomm’s last earnings at the end of April when the companyannounced a custom silicon engagement with a leading hyperscaler, the stock went on a tear and is up ~43% since earningsin April. At Bernstein's SDC conference in May the company further disclosed that they expect the Datacenter opportunity tobe in the “multiple billion dollar” range in FY27. We hope to learn more about the product set (ASICs, accelerator racks, CPUsetc.), how it pertains to QCOM’s target market segment (presumably low-cost inference) and why Qualcomm has the right towin in this space (e.g. IP, customer and supplier relationships etc especially as QCOM is a late entrant in most of these). We arealso curious as to the timeframe the company feels comfortable guiding to as a measure of visibility (i.e. 3 years to 2029? 5 to2031?) How does Qualcomm view the evolution of the handset market both in the short term (impact of memory-drivenheadwinds) and over the longer-term? How does it see agentic AI, and an evolving customer-mix (Apple, Samsung)impact the business?Despite the excitement about the Datacenter business, handsets are still the primar