贸易从效率转向韧性：航运及投资者的利好

Last week, we had the opportunity to attend Marine Money Week, a three-dayshipping industry conference held each year in New York. The tone at this year’sconference was solidly optimistic, especially as it relates to the interplay betweendeglobalization and heightened geopolitical riskand the possibility of increasedtonne-mile demand for vessels across various segments and classes. This noteservesas a recap of major themes and takeaways from the conference andpresents our thesis that maritime shipping equity assets are an interestingopportunityfor investors to hedge against greater geopolitical risk anduncertainty. The conference reinforced our view that maritimeshipping is increasingly beingshaped less by classical supply/demand and more by a structural overlay ofgeopolitics,trade fragmentation,infrastructure bottlenecks,and concernsaround energy and supply-chain security. Across thedry bulk, tanker, LPG carrier,and LNG carrier segments, the clearest common thread is that global trade isbecomingless efficient as globalization turns towards deglobalization,regionalization, confederation, and self-sufficiency. While these trends may notbe great for global peace and stability,they aregenerally supportive of tonne-miledemand, utilization, and shipping rates. Our core takeaway is that the shipping industry will continue to benefit fromdeglobalization trends, includingstrategic stockpiling of key commodities, thebuild-out of additional storage infrastructure, andincreased regional securityconcerns around supply chains and energy security. In that vein, we believe thathigh-quality shipping companies with modern,more fuel-efficient fleets,relativelylow reinvestment risk,balance sheet flexibility, and operational spotexposure will benefit in this environment. We continue tohave Buy ratings onInternationalSeaways(INSW)and Scorpio Tankers(STNG)in the tankersegment, Buy ratings on Genco (GNK) and Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK) in the drybulk segment, and a Buy rating on Navigator Gas (NVGS) in the LPG carrierSegment. Beyond the “shipping-as-transport names, we also like the geopoliticalbackdrop for companies such as Excelerate Energy (EE) and Golar LNG (GLNG)in the marine-based LNG value chain,and Venture Global (VG) in the land-basedLNG liquefaction segment. Geopolitics is no longera background variable–it drives trade patterns Several panel discussions came back to the same point: the shipping market isbeing reshaped by a world that is becoming less integrated and more security-focused, especially after the latest closure in the Strait of Hormuz and conflicts inthe Middle East. Owners and operatorsexpect global trade to evolve towards more regionalization, self-sufficiency,confederation, and/or balkanization. Whileglobalization of trade has been a major driver of cargo volumes, a deglobalizationtrend may not necessarily imply less trade, but rather longer voyage distances,lower logistical efficiencies, more strategic storage requirements, and higherredundanciesin supply chains.This combination should be fundamentallysupportive for shipping tonne-mile demand and rates.When voyages are longer,loading/discharge is slower and less efficient, and vesselsreroute or avoid unsafeor dangerous regions, the result is the same: less effective available supply. As it relates to the Strait of Hormuz, tanker owners are looking for the followingconditions to be met before returning to the region: 1) a full cessation of hostilitiesin the region and several weeks or months of nohostile attacks on ships or othermarine infrastructure; 2) safe and unrestricted travel conditions that are nothampered by various state or military actors; 3)normalization of insurance pricesand availability, and; 4) stabilization in the broader region.One panel participantnoted that these conditions have not been met at the current time even if headlinediplomacy has improved. Ship owners remaincautious around risks to their crewsand to their assets. Owners believe that the current conflict will encourageadditional investment in storage infrastructure in various countries and regionsas a way to further bolster strategic oil reserves.The peace agreement is stillrelativelyfragile,especially as it relates to big questions around whetherhostilities between Israel and Lebanon will persist. Notably, tanker owners were quite positive around the prospect for sanctionsrelief on Iranian oil and what this could mean for demand for compliant,mainstream tonnage. TheIranian dark fleet primarily consists of older, lessmaintained vessels. These vesselswere popular among smaller, Chinese refinerswhen Iranian oil was trading at a significantdiscount,and these ships were theonly options. Should sanctions on Iranian oil be lifted, then demand for newer,better maintained and compliant ships shouldincrease.A real-world example ofthis dynamic can be seen in Venezuela todaywherepreviously sanctionedcrudevolumes are now being lifted using mainstream, compliant vessels, displacingda