陆家嘴论坛要点：利率传导改善，资本账户开放稳步推进

Robin XingChief China EconomistRobin.Xing@morganstanley.com Lujiazui Takeaways: Better RateTransmission, Gradual CapitalAccount Opening Jenny Zheng, CFAEconomistJenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com Zhipeng CaiEconomistZhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com Harry ZhaoEconomistHarry.Zhao@morganstanley.com Key Takeaways At the Lujiazui Forum today, PBoC announced to narrow O/N reverse repocorridor to 7-day reverse repo rate +/- 25bps (vs. +50/-20 before). We view this as directionally positive for policy transmission, but not a sign ofpolicy rate cuts, given PBoC's concerns on banks interest margin pressures. On RMB internationalization, it pledged an offshore RMB repo facility, pilotoffshore RMB FX trading in the Shanghai FTZ, and support offshore finance. SAFE also disclosed plans to issue a new batch of QDII quotas, improve FDI rules,and optimize foreign exchange loan and cross-border equity incentive systems. Today's policy comments could ease concerns over a U-turn on capital accountopening, but the asymmetric approach will likely be maintained. Better interest rate transmission, not rate cut signals:In our view, the ratecorridor reform is directionally positive for policy transmission and should makeshort-end liquidity management more rules-based and transparent. That said, wemaintain our view that cuts in broad policy rates remain impossible in 2H26 and2027, given heightened pressures on bank net interest margins. Capital account opening: No U turn, but tighter regulation on illegal outboundchannels:We view recent regulations on outbound investment as efforts to redirectcapital flows toward regulated, controllable routes, rather than means to stop"capital flight". Beijing's pledge on continued capital account opening today may easemarket concerns, with plans to improve offshore RMB liquidity management andexpand ODII quotas. That said, China's capital account liberalization is set to be gradual and asymmetric:Under the "impossible trinity", Beijing's preference over monetarypolicy independence and RMB stability means that capital-account opening and RMBinternationalization would be calibrated and orderly. The asymmetric approach willthus be maintained – more liberalization for trade, FDI, institutional flows; tight onretail outflows, portfolio flows and short-term capital. For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report. Disclosure Section Information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by one or more of the following, which accept responsibility for its contents: Morgan Stanley AsiaLimited, and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H),regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with,Morgan Stanley Research), and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734576, holder of Australian financial services license No. 233742), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financial serviceslicense No. 240813, and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN) U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Boardof India (“SEBI”) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001105), Stock Broker (SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZ000244438), Merchant Banker (SEBIRegistration No. INM000011203), and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBI Registration No. IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021) having registered office at Altimus, Level39 & 40, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400018, India; Telephone no. +91-22-61181000; Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email:tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: msic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsibilityfor its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). MorganStanley India Company Private Limited (MSICPL) may use AI tools in providing research services. All recommendations contained herein are made by the duly qualified research analysts;For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Websiteat www.morganstanley.com/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Res