欧洲IT服务：欧盟科技主权——监管创造需求，但只有合适的模式能胜出

European IT Services: EU Tech Sovereignty - Regulation createsdemand, but only the right models win European IT services. By prioritizing control over cloud, data, and Al, it forces public sectorand regulated industries to re-platform, localize data,and upgrade governanceframeworks.The result is a multi-year pipeline of large, non-discretionary projects - with IT services firmsat the center as thekey implementation partners. +33142135422richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com +33158980630 source modernization, and domestic infrastructure build-out expand addressable spendwhile increasing delivery complexity. This shifts the mix toward higher-value services -consulting,integrationandmanaged services-andreinforcesincumbencywithgovernmentsand critical sectors. Kiran Shah, CFA +442035471533kiran.shah@bernsteinsg.com clients, strong capabilities in cloud, Al, cybersecurity and open architectures, and deep Eudeliveryfootprints.Sopra Steria andIndra stand out as the most directbeneficiaries,in ourwithmorediversifiedexposure.Altenremainsamoreindirectplayviaclientdemand constrain hyperscaler usage, increase reliance on EU-based talent, and add complianceoverhead.Providers with offshore-heavy models orconcentrated vendor dependencies riskseeing costs rise faster than pricing. This sets up a clear divergence. The bull case is a policy-driven growth cycle with risingbarriersto entryand strongerstrategicrelevance.Thebearcaseisacompliance-heavyspendcycle that inflates costs and dilutes margins. We view EU tech sovereignty as a stock-selection theme, not a sector call. Our proprietaryscoring framework highlights clear relative winners and losers, helping identify whereregulatory tailwinds translate into sustainable, profitable growth - and where they do not. Bottom line: Sovereignty is a durable demand driver, but not a free lunch. The key questionis execution: which firms can turn complexity into value, and which will be left with cost. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Outperform:Alten (PT135) Arcadis (PT48)Aubay (PT 66)Capgemini (PT 208)Indra (PT 69)Sopra Steria (PT242) Underperform:Atos (PT43)CGI (PTC$141) What thepackage actuallydoes6Key impact channels for IT Services.8Demand side: new project and spend pools.Supply side: delivery model and margin effects.8Catalysts (bullish triggers)...10Challenges and execution risks.11Bull and bear cases for IT Services..12Bull case...12Bearcase12A directional frameworkforEUtech sovereignty exposu .Global software: Mid-market ERP at the Al inflection point·WhenAnthropic and OpenAIMeetITServices·Artificial Intelligence...SoonerorLater:Alisalreadyhere-ThestructuralresetofITServices&Software.Forward Deployed Engineering (FDE):Where Al software meets the real world.FDE:Force Multiplier-or False Comfort-for enterprise Al·Disrupted orsupercharged?MappingAlrisks inServicesand Software.Al disruption radar-Want to try it yourself?.IT Services: The irresistible rise of Services-as-Software·Global Software: The coming Alsupercycle in Supply Chain Software List of recent company reports for selected services providers: Capgemini (Outperform,PT 208): :Capgemini1Q26sales:Executiondrivesupside,riskspriced in.Capgemini:Riding the supply chainAlsupercycle:Capgemini 1Q26preview:Show-me quarterat an inflectionpoint Indra (Outperform; PT 69): .Indra:Defense-led, Al-enabled-our Best ldea remains intactIndra:Bestldea2Q26-Defense-led,Al-enabled:There-ratingcontinues.Outperform . Indra: Firing on all cylinders -Defense surges, Minsait acceleratesAlten (Outperform,PT135): :Alten: Strong start to the year.Alten:Defying beartheory and continuingto execute development plan : Sopra Steria: Stillthere, and even in slightly better shape than expected (AMENDED) Aubay:Moreprofitablethanexpectedandapromising starttotheyear-theperfectpicture Reply:Onefootontheaccelerator· Atos (Underperform, PT 43): .Atos:Niceconference-Animprovingriskprofile:Atos: still no signs of improvementin top-line growth CGI (Underperform, PT C$141): .CGl:a shock forthe marketperhaps,butforus it's justa bad quarter and confirmation of CGl's profile:CGI 1Q26 results: As expected, exposure to US Federal Government is hurting performance The EU tech sovereignty package (link) is a genuine demand catalystfor European IT services, in our view, but it is not a sector- wide free lunch. By pushing public sector and regulated clients toward sovereign-compliant cloud, tighter data controls, andnew governance requirements, it turns regulation into a multi-year pipeline of re-platforming, cybersecurity, Al governance, andinfrastructure projects.That is clearly positive for sector growth, especially in consulting,integration, and managed services.The challenge is that the same package also raises delivery complexity. More localization, stricter compliance, reduced standardization, and greater reliance on EU-based talent all increase cost and execution risk.As a result, the keyquestion is notwhetherthetheme is supportive,but which provider