欧洲软件与IT服务的K型现实：并非所有科技都相同

shaped reality for European Software and IT Services 'A Tale of Two Cities'captures a period of contradiction: the French aristocracy indulging inopulence andprivilege,thepeasantry experiencing poverty andoppression.While2026 isthankfullynot18thcenturyFrance,shiftingclassdynamicsremainmoretopicalthan ever,fromtheUsK-shapedeconomytothesqueezedChinesemiddleclass.Inthisnote,weexaminehowthe same divide nowdefines tech:markets expecta broad slowdown in key sectors such asretail and CPG, but our CIO-backed framework shows budgets arebeing reprioritized-notcut-toward Al,efficiencyandsecurity.OurK-shaped scorecard identifies structuralwinners,reinforcingourconstructivestanceonenterprisesoftwareandselectivecloud-ledservices.IT budgets are holding up, but reallocation is driving sharp dispersion. Even in richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.comDerric Marcon derric.marcon@bernsteinsg.comMark L. Moerdler, Ph.D. +19173448506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.comFiroz Valliji, CFA pressured sectors such as retail and CPG, CIOs are maintaining overall IT spend whileaggressivelyredirecting ittoward automation,Al,analytics andcybersecurity.Theseprioritiesare funded by cuts to on-premise infrastructure and low-ROl discretionary projects. Thekey insight is that resilience reflects spend mix, not top-line growth: vendors deliveringmeasurable efficiency or cost reduction are gaining share, while legacy offerings fail tighterROlcriteria. Demand is intact-but increasingly selective. +19173448316firoz.vallj@bernsteinsg.com +19173448342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com KiranShah,CFA exposure is meaningful. Software spend continues to grow at high single-digit to mid-teens rates, underpinned by its mission-critical role across financials, supply chain andcapped at low-to-mid single digits, reflecting discretionary exposure. laaS remains the keygrowth engine, lifting providerswithmeaningful cloud exposure whilemasking weakness intraditional models.This drives widening intra-sector dispersion. +44 20 35471533kiran.shah@bernsteinsg.com Enterprise,Al-enabled,recurringplatformsaretheclearcompounders.Ourscorecardhighlights four defining traits: Al-driven productivity, enterprise exposure, alignment with"must-have"spend,and limited legacy drag.SAP exemplifies this profile, with deep workflowintegration, increasing Al monetization and high recurring revenue. These attributes supportpricing power and cash flow visibility. In services, only cloud-, data- and Al-led players suchas Capgemini approach similar quality, while labor-intensive and SMB-heavy models facestructural margin pressure. Wereiterateaselective,software-led investment strategy with stronger conviction.The opportunity lies in exploiting dispersion: prioritizing high-quality compounders and selectdefensives, while structurally underweighting legacy and SMB-exposed“pressure zone"names.Broad tech beta is less compelling than targeted exposure to resilient, Al-enabledplatforms. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Wereiterate ourratings andpricetargets. Outperform:74software(PT55) Alten (PT135)Arcadis (PT48)Aubay (PT 66)Capgemini (PT 208)Dassault Systemes(PT29)Indra (PT 66)OVHcloud (PT19)SAP(PT276/$323)Sopra Steria (PT242) Market-Perform:Nemetschek(PT104)Reply (PT 120)Sage (PT 1,050p)TeamViewer(PT7.6)Worldline (PT 0.35) Underperform:Atos (PT43)CGI (PT C$141) Technology spending should remain healthyThekeythemes forIT services andsoftware inaK-shaped economyStrategic scorecard for services and software companies in a K-shaped IT landscape.15 Technologyresilienceisunder-priced,andtheK-shapedeconomy nowruns throughtech itself,challengingthemarket'simplicit"/T beta"view.Consensus stilleanstowardabroad-based slowdown inIT, butouranalysis arguesbudgets arebeingreprioritized-notcut-towardAl,efficiencyandsecurity,supportingresilient,recurringplatforms.Incrementally,we introduceastructuredK-shapedscorecard across Alproductivity,enterprise exposure andrevenue quality,highlighting clearintra-sectordispersion.We reiterateour constructive stanceon enterprise softwareand selective cloud-led services,withconviction shiftingfurthertoward softwarecompounders. Efficiency-led budget reallocation is sustaining demand but redistributing it toward “must-have" platforms. AcrossOfficers)are holding overall IT budgets broadly intact while aggressively redirecting spend toward cost reduction, automation,Al, analytics and cybersecurity.This internal rotation is funded by cuts to on-premise infrastructure and lower-ROl discretionaryprojects, creating a sharper divide than typical cyclical slowdowns. The incremental insightis that resilience stems less from top-lineITgrowthandmorefromspendquality:platformsthatdemonstrably improveproductivityorreducecosts captureincrementalbudget share, while legacy architectures fail stricter ROl hurdles. The implication is that demand remains durable, but only forvendors aligned with board-level priorities of resilience and margin protection. Softwareremains structurally insulated, while ser