并非所有周期性行业都相同

Restricted - External Fabian Herold+44 (0)20 7773 0753fabian.herold@barclays.comBarclays, UKBadr El Moutawakil+1 212 526 8907badr.elmoutawakil@barclays.comBCI, USAvanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeStella Cridge+44 (0) 20 3134 9618stella.cridge@barclays.comBarclays, UKEvgeniia Bystrova+44 (0) 20 7773 4204evgeniia.bystrova@barclays.comBarclays, UKAnsel Tessitore+1 212 412 5982ansel.tessitore@barclays.comBCI, USStefan Styk+1 212 526 4856stefan.styk@barclays.comBCI, USJit Ming Tan, CFA+65 6308 3210jitming.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeImtiaz Shefuddin+65 6308 4906imtiaz.shefuddin@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore FIGURE 1. The rally since mid-April drove EM corp spreads back toFIGURE 2. Spreads of cyclical industries are still a lot wider than thoseof defensives since the tights in mid-Feb68101414152024283426413735274359570204060Real EstateCons DefensiveTMTIndustrialUtilitiesBanksBasic MaterialsOil & GasCons CyclicalOASΔfrom mid-Feb to 8 AprilOASΔfrom mid-Feb to latestbpSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchrally, Consumer Cyclicals and Oil & Gas have underperformed the most (by median ticker),followed by Basic Industries (Figure 2). The better performing sectors have been defensive ones,particularly Consumer Defensives and TMT.In absolute terms, cyclical credits in EM trade far tighter now than they did during periods whenmarkets were dominated by recession concerns over the past 10 years. Hence, if markets wereto re-focus on risks of the US economy contracting and its labour market turning, then cyclicals,on aggregate, are too expensive and will widen. However, our economists believe that while theUS economy will grow below trend this year and next, both at 1.3%, quarterly growth has likelytroughed (see Complexities and complications, 30 May 2025), and the US unemployment rate islikely to remain in the low-4% range. Against such a backdrop, looking at valuations relative todefensive credits becomes more meaningful, in our view.Hence, we looked back at periods of growth scares and recessions over the past 10 years andformed bond pairs between issuers of cyclical and defensive industries that are located in thesame country and have a similar rating and maturity. This analysis suggests that the mediancyclical credit in EM trades at a similar discount to defensives compared with previous growthscares (Figure 3). However, HY cyclicals are trading cheaper to defensives than during theseperiods. Both comparisons exclude March 2020, however, when the relative valuation ofcyclicals was exceptionally wide. Figure 4 highlights that High Yield Energy, Chemicals, Metalsand Industrials credits currently are trading at a larger discount relative to defensives than inthese past episodes.2 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research3 June 2025 Note: We formed bond pairs of EM corporates in cyclical and defensive industries ofthe same country, where the ratingdiffersa maximum of 2 notches and the maturitydifferenceis not more than 1.5 years. We exclude bonds with a maturity less than 3years (due to pull to par) as well as financials.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5. Low-rated issuance by commodity names has been frequent this year14510051015202530201420152016# of bonds by EM O&G,Basic Material and manufacturers placed with at least 1 rating below BBSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFrom a top-down perspective, we note that in recent years there has been a pick-up in primaryactivity from EM HY corporates of cyclical sectors, including lower-rated ones. For instance, thisyear there already have been 10 bond issuances from Oil & Gas and Basic Industry credits withat least one credit rating below BB-, following 14 in 2024, which was notably above the long-term norm (but still shy of 2021 and 2017). It is plausible, in our view, that this has created anunfavourable market technical in that part of the market as headwinds to the fundamentals ofthose issuers have risen. This may have amplified underperformance. That said, while some ofthese credits have become heavily scrutinised from a fundamental perspective for the rightreasons, financial leverage as reported by HY corporates of cyclical industries is actually belowhistorical norms in aggregate (Figure 6 and Figure 7). The notable deleveraging in 2021-22 whencommodity prices were very elevated has only been partially reversed since, in contrast to EMHY credits of defensive industries, where levels are in line with historical norms. This puts at3 June 2025 Note: We formed bond pairs of EM corporates in cyclical and defensive industries ofthe same country, where the ratingdiffersa maximum of 2 notches and the maturitydifferenceis not more than 1.5 years. We exclude bonds with a maturity less than 3years (due to pull to par) as well as financials.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research30161411251714102017201820192020202120222023202420253 FIGURE 6. In EM HY, leverage of cyclical credits has risen since2022, but remains muc