杰富瑞宏观周报——债券压力与AI重置；利率维持不变，关注点阵图

Equity ResearchJune 14, 2026 Global | Equity Strategy JEF Macro Weekly—Bond Pressures & AI Resets;Rates on Hold, Attention on Dots STRATEGY NOTE When the Iran conflict is over, Zervos sees oil falling below $60, Fed cuts onthe table, and potential 8 handles on SPOOS, eying 9s in '27/'28. PerG&f, thereturn to rising rates/yields raises the question of when the US will be borrowingmainly to service debt. Mohit finds the ECB's scenario analysis too optimistic;he thinks the ECB hike is the last in the cycle, stays long at the front end. Desh'sbase case: earnings support themes, but recovery may slow. David Zervos—I remain hopeful on the Iran front and, when we see resolution, that oil will dropbelow $60 and we go back to pricing in cuts, with Fed balance sheet reduction in the spotlight. I amconfident we will be bouncing around with 8 handles on SPOOs, and eying 9s in '27/'28. GREED & fear—A return to rising rates and rising yields, in the context of a continuing lack of restrainton spending, raises the question of when the US will be borrowing mainly to service the debt it hasalready incurred. GREED & fear’s base case remains that the US will resort to yield curve control;such policies would be dollar bearish, gold bullish. Mohit Kumar—The ECB delivered an in-line 25bps hike. We agree with the hike, not because wethink it was required, but because the ECB needed to demonstrate its inflation-fighting credibility.However, we find the ECB scenario analysis too optimistic on growth. We believe the ECB hike willbe the last in the business cycle, and we maintain our long position at the front end of the curve. Thomas Simons—We doubt Kevin Warsh's prepared remarks will be as lengthy or detailed asPowell's, and he will likely steer away from forward guidance as much as possible. We expect Warshto be extremely careful about saying anything beyond maintaining a focus on data-dependence andtaking a meeting-to-meeting approach to policy decisions as more information about the economycomes in. M. Sherif Hamid—We expect a US/Iran resolution to help drive another leg of rotation out of “AIwinners” into “geopolitical losers” and we would be picking more spots in selective “geopoliticallosers” across Consumer, Industrials, Packaging, and Housing. JefMacro Strategy * | Global Macro Team| jefmacro@jefferies.com David Zervos * ~ | Chief Market Strategist| dzervos@jefferies.com Desh Peramuntilleke—Momentum unwind cycles have not sustained without substantial earningsdestruction. Unlike the March unwind, we have two new hurdles: AI-related mega fundraising anda potential Fed tightening. Our base case is that earnings support for themes such as AI remainsrobust, though recovery might be slow. Christopher Wood ^ | Global Head of EquityStrategy852 3743 8746 | christopher.wood@jefferies.com Thomas Simons * | US Economist(212) 323-7577 | tsimons@jefferies.com Mohit Kumar ‡ | European Economist+44 (0)20 7898 7017 | mkumar8@jefferies.com Steven G. DeSanctis, CFA * | Equity Strategist(212) 284-2056 | sdesanctis@jefferies.com Aniket Shah, PhD * | Head of Sust. &Transition Strategy(212) 323-3976 | ashah14@jefferies.com Desh Peramunetilleke ^ | Head of QuantitativeStrategy852 3743 8056 | desh.peramunetilleke@jefferies.com~ non-Research Department Economists. Jefferies Macro Forecasts: David Zervos—Insouciant and invested: I’m excited for all the incredibly productive investment that will come from these record-setting IPOs. And I remain hopeful on the Iran front that, verysoon, “this too will pass”. When it does, oil should drop materially below $60, and we will be back to pricing in rate cuts, especially with Fed balancesheet reduction in the spotlight. I am confident we will be bouncing around with 8 handles on spoos, and eying 9s for 2027/28. The last thing I'm worrying aboutis an overheating labor market. If anything, I worry about just the opposite. But even with these modest concernsabout labor market weakness, I am staying both insouciant and invested. I believe the outlook for returns on capital through earnings and profitsremains far brighter than the naysayers are forecasting. Christopher Wood—"GREED & fear": Bond pressures and AI resets: Financial markets remain set up for a test of the new Federal Reserve chairman following the release of the latest CPI data. Although AI should provedisinflationary, it will surely be hard for Kevin Warsh to look past the rising price pressures stemming from tariffs and, more importantly, the Iranconflict, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Still, if Warsh does attempt to adopt such a stance, in line with his op-ed in theWall Street Journallast November arguing that the AI story justifiesrate cuts, the obvious risk is that the long end of the bond market sells off, as it has already begun to do. GREED & fear continues to viewthe 10-year Treasury bond yield as the most important price in world markets. How it behaves is more importantthan what the new Fed