杰富瑞宏观周报——情绪套利；最新经济展望空缺

JefMacro Strategy * | Global Macro TeamDavid Zervos * ~ | Chief Market StrategistChristopher Wood ^ | Global Head of Equity852 3743 8746 | christopher.wood@jefferies.comThomas Simons * | US Economist(212) 323-7577 | tsimons@jefferies.comMohit Kumar ‡ | European EconomistSteven G. DeSanctis, CFA * | Equity Strategist(212) 284-2056 | sdesanctis@jefferies.comAniket Shah, PhD * | Head of Sust. &(212) 323-3976 | ashah14@jefferies.com~ non-Research Department Economists.Equity ResearchMay 17, 2025 Net Personal Finances 12M ExpectationsNet Business Conditions 12M Expectations | jefmacro@jefferies.com| dzervos@jefferies.comStrategy| mkumar8@jefferies.comTransition Strategy .Key Jefferies Macro ForecastsEquity Targets and ForecastsKey Indicators'25 TargetS&P 500Russell 2000JEF's EarningsEarningsS&P 500$258.79Russell 2000$114.92Sector RatingsGICs SectorLarge CapsComm ServOverweightDiscretionaryUnderweightStaplesNeutralEnergyUnderweightFinancialsNeutralHealth CareOverweightIndustrialsUnderweightInfo TechNeutralMaterialsUnderweightReal Estate/ PropertyNeutralUtilitiesOverweightSource: JefferiesChristopher Wood—"GREED & fear": Tariff deflation:The IMF-World Bank Spring meeting talking shop in Washington has on this occasion served a highly useful function — that is, providing the venuefor Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an to meet three weeks ago to secure the sharp reduction in threatenedtariffs, which markets have been celebrating this past week.TheFinancial Timesarticle reporting how the deal came about posed the question of who blinked first. The answer seems obvious toGREED & fear.The whole episode has proved again that the US does not have the leverage over China that Donald Trump appeared to think he had.It is increasingly clear that the American president has now understood this without, naturally, admitting it and has been looking for an off-ramp toback off the whole agenda in a face-saving way, with Bessent the chosen vehicle to deliver it.The result is that many investors, based on meetings in London this week, and indeedGREED & fear, are now assuming that the base case is thattariffs end up at a maximum 10% across the board in terms of new tariffs.True, the formal tariff on China is still 40%, but that includes 20% related to the fentanyl issue and the 10% left over from the first Trump administration.GREED & fearcan easily see the 20% being negotiated away on some declared progress on fentanyl in another future deal with China. Still the reallypositive and substantive outcome would be to allow China to set up manufacturing facilities in America in areas such as batteries and EVs.Such an approach would not please the national security lobby, but Trump, inGREED & fear’s view, is not driven by that agenda, which is also whythere remains a real possibility of a deal on TikTok. Investors are also increasingly assuming that the so-called reciprocal tariffs on other countrieswill not be reimposed after the 90-day negotiation window to secure trade deals.This is because it is assumed that Trump is backing off the whole tariff agenda, which has seen his approval rating collapsed and which has createda real recession risk at a time when shortages are about to start appearing on shelves and prices are about to be raised on tariffed items.For now, the risks of a US recession have clearly been significantly reduced by the de-escalation of the trade war, as has the risk of a relateddeterioration in the labor market. This is why money markets ae now discounting only 49bp of Fed rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut nowpushed back to September.Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 2 Still the tariff agenda has not been abandoned altogether.The presumed base case of 10% tariffs across the board, which is clearly the best case,is still the highest level of tariffs since 1943. This is not a positive, even though it is way less than previously feared.The whole Trump-triggered tariff saga will have served as a further incentive for countries from China down to continue to do what they were doinganyway — that is, to pursue trade deals and related opportunities elsewhere. The ongoing pattern is for more and more trade to be done outside theUS dollar, as reflected in the PBOC’s swap arrangements with a growing number of central banks.Recent events do not undermineGREED & fear’s view that the US has peaked as a share of global market capitalisation, though it is interesting to notethat the US dollar rallied on the cut in tariffs, which is the exact opposite of the assumptions contained in the Miran paper. But the US dollar index isstill down 8.5% from the recent high in mid-January and, inGREED & fear’s view, has commenced a long-term downtrend.The most important issue for the US market from a relative performance standpoint, given the dominance of Big Tec